Mark O'Haire's Notebook: Premier League MD10 tips involving Arsenal, Man City and Newcastle

• Arsenal are value to silence Turf Moor

• West Ham's shocking set-piece data prompts bet at 13/114.00

• Oppose cards at The Etihad on Sunday

• Safe Sub is here for the 2025-26 season - read all about it!

Burnley v Arsenal: Gunners to keep Clarets quiet

Burnley v Arsenal      
Saturday 1 November, 15:00
Live on Sky Sports

Mikel Arteta made 10 changes to his Arsenal side for Wednesday night's Carabao Cup clash with Brighton, yet the Gunners continued their eye-catching recent form with a 2-0 triumph. The victory means Arsenal are the first English top-flight team to play six games in a month and win them all without conceding a goal. Historic.

That phenomenal run of results looks likely to be extended on Saturday when the capital club head to Turf Moor. Arsenal are allowing only 0.59 xG per-game in the Premier League this season, giving up just 2.11 shots on-target on average - the Gunners' opponents have managed just five Big Chances across the campaign.

Those remarkable numbers should give Arsenal a strong frame to work from ahead of their trip to a Burnley side that is returning the league's lowest xG average (0.76 per-game), the fewest shots in the top-flight (7.69 per-game), the worst shots in the box output (4.56 per-game), as well as the second-lowest Big Chances figure (10).

Backing Arsenal to win to nil has paid-out in 11 of their 14 fixtures across all competitions in 2025/26, an extraordinarily impressive return, making the 10/111.91 on a repeat this weekend too good to turn down.

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West Ham v Newcastle: Irons' set-piece woes to extend

West Ham v Newcastle
Sunday 2 November, 14:00
Live on Sky Sports

Last week we targeted West Ham's dreadful defending from set-piece situations to pocket a wonderful 18/119.00 winner with Joe Rodon scoring against the Irons. It makes complete sense to follow on that same path again on Sunday when the Hammers welcome a physical and powerful Newcastle outfit to the London Stadium.

Rodon was the fifth centre-back to score against West Ham this season - the hosts have now leaked nine times from dead-ball situations with central defenders racking up 16 attempts in just nine Premier League matches against the Irons. With that in-mind, the 13/114.00 on Malick Thiaw in the Anytime Goalscorer market stands-out.

Imposing, athletic and comfortable on the ball, Thiaw has made a very positive impression since his summer switch from Milan. The 6ft 4in German is ranked sixth in the Premier League for aerial duels won per-90 and sixth for duel success this season, whilst also racking up 0.96 shots per-90 across all competitions.

Interestingly, Thiaw has had a headed attempt at goal in five of his last seven dates and, with West Ham waving the white flag from set-pieces, the Newcastle centre-half should be well-capable of connecting and causing chaos in the Hammers' penalty box. This looks a great opportunity for the Toon star to grab his first goal in Magpies colours.

Man City v Bournemouth: Target unders with Taylor in-charge

Man City v Bournemouth
Sunday 2 November, 16:30
Live on Sky Sports

The Premier League has seen a significant decrease in cards per-game figures in 2025/26. Following MD9, the top-flight is averaging 3.71 cards - a 0.63 cards per-game decrease on last season - just 67% of overall EPL encounters have produced at least three bookings with Anthony Taylor yet again leading a charge towards the unders.

Taylor has flashed just 2.75 cards per-game across his eight outings thus far. He has delivered a card count below three in four of those eight dates yet a repeat has been chalked up at bulbous 11/53.20 quotes on Sunday ahead of Man City's match-up with Bournemouth, a price that implies just a 31% chance of success.

Go back to the beginning of last term and Taylor has landed the Under 2.5 Cards bounty in 49% of his 39 Premier League matches, with 31% of those fixtures featuring a maximum of one caution. Zero card backers have also toasted Taylor's lenient approach in 21% of that long-term sample, highlighting his laissez-faire approach.

Punters should look to ladder down the unders options at The Etihad though the best value is to take Under 2.5 Cards at a very appealing 11/53.20 considering the long-term hit-rate of 49% when Taylor oversees EPL action.

Now read this week's Opta stats guide and get a tip for every EPL match