Jones Knows Notebook: Back 4/1 Wednesday treble involving shots, fouls and goals

• Back Forest shots, Hincapie to be fouled and goals at Fulham

• Back Lewis' Premier League Wednesday treble at 4/1

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Listen to Football...Only Bettor Premier League matchday 29 preview

Leg 1: Back 11+ Forest shots against Man City

Click here for Man City v Nottm Forest odds
Wednesday, 19:30
Live on TNT Sports

Manchester City are winning games by monopolising the ball, as they often do at this time of the season, but the defensive stranglehold that used to suffocate their opponents has loosened.

City have conceded 11 or more shots in each of their last seven Premier League matches, shipping an average of 12.8 efforts per game in that run. That's not vintage Pep control. Even Wolves hit the 11 shots line, which tells you this isn't just a one-off blip, it's a pattern. City are giving up territory and when you do that in the Premier League, you give up shots.

Forest won't park the bus. They need results. Across their last eight matches, they've averaged a chunky 18.5 shots per game. That's huge in terms of volume. They're playing with bravery, committing numbers forward and, crucially for this bet, pulling the trigger early and often.

Leg 2: Back Arsenal's Hincapié to be fouled at Brighton

Click here for Brighton v Arsenal odds
Wednesday, 19:30
Live on TNT Sports

This looks like one of those classic punting scenarios where the data lines up neatly with the eye test.

Piero Hincapie has been fouled at least once in nine of his last 10 starts at left-back for Arsenal. A player ticking along at a 90% strike rate in the role brings about a consistency that offers a great investment opportunity.

He's a great salesman when it comes to fouls.

Hincapie invites pressure and commits the opposition. There's a subtle pause in his movement that tempts challenges. Then comes the body shape, the roll across the defender, and suddenly the free-kick is his.

It's not new either. During his time at Bayer Leverkusen, he drew 1.4 fouls per 90 last season - a strong number across a big sample size. His ability to absorb contact and make it obvious to the referee makes him a fantastic player to be on in the "to be fouled market".

Leg 3: Back over 2.5 goals in Fulham v West Ham

Click here for Fulham v West Ham odds
Wednesday, 19:30
Live on TNT Sports

This game screams goals.

Of Fulham's last 11 matches, ten have delivered for over 2.5 backers.

Marco Silva's side play on the front foot, commit numbers forward but do offer up big chances at the end other. And when their matches open up, goals tend to follow.

West Ham arrive with genuine attacking punch of their own. With Crysencio Summerville and Jarrod Bowen providing thrust from the flanks and central areas, there's pace, directness and end product.

Across their last nine games they're scoring at 1.7 goals per match and the underlying data is even stronger, with expected goals at 2.05 per game. These are not numbers you'd associate with a team odds-on to be relegated.

Back 4/1 treble using Bet £10 and Get £10

With Betfair offering football punters the chance to Bet £10 and Get £10 on the midweek Premier League action, this is the perfect opportunity to combine my three selections in a Wednesday treble. 

Now get Opta stats and tips for every Premier League matchday 29 fixture