Premier League Tipsheet: Six cracking bets for Saturday from 10/11 to 15/2

Ollie Watkins, Aston Villa
Watkins is enjoying a season of seasons for Villa

Ste Tudor highlights where the goals and three points will likely be found to get this weekend started.

  • Forest to trouble hit-and-miss Villa

  • Palace revived up front

  • United to keep on smiling

  • Read about Betfair's 90 Minute Payout offer here


  • Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest (15:00) - Not always super Villans

    Forest's win over West Ham last weekend was priceless, pulling them clear of the bottom three, while keeping a clean sheet would have delighted Nuno Espirito Santo who treasures them more than most.

    The last time they kept a shut-out was all the way back on November 5th, in the corresponding fixture to this one, and there were certainly no fireworks from Villa that afternoon, accruing 73.5% possession but doing little with it.

    They were in terrific form back then too.

    Which is no longer the case, or more accurately Unai Emery's side have become a curate's egg of late, always threatening going forward - most notably in the form of 13-goal striker Ollie Watkins - but recently leaky at the back.

    Villa have conceded in the first-half in each of their last three outings at home and this is pertinent with 14 of Taiwo Awoniyi's 16 top-flight goals getting Forest off the mark. On 11 occasions it was the first goal of the game.

    Back Awoniyi to score first @ 15/28.50

    Bet here

    Brighton v Everton (15:00) - Home banker

    Only Bruno Fernandes has created more chances than Pascal Gross this season and with four goal involvements in three, he's the player to watch. Look out too for Ansu Fati coming off the bench. The former Barcelona star has the fifth best xG per 90 in the top-flight.

    Identifying Everton's dangermen is more difficult to do, mainly because they don't have any at present.

    Dominic Calvert-Lewin is the biggest xG underperformer of 2024 so far and with scant firepower elsewhere the Toffees haven't scored away from Goodison Park for four-and-a-half hours.

    Winless in eight their task here is exceedingly tough with Brighton boasting a terrific record at the Amex. Roberto De Zerbi's men last came unstuck on the South Coast all the way back in August.

    Back Brighton to score 1+ goals, Brighton 5+ corners, and Everton 2+ cards @ 10/111.91

    Bet here

    Crystal Palace v Burnley (15:00) - Oliver's new army

    "Nobody went on the pitch when he was a young kid to defend."

    The words of incoming boss Oliver Glasner bodes well for a Palace side that has been shot-shy and goal-shy to date, and badly for a Burnley collective who have conceded three goals in each of their last three away fixtures.

    To what extent the attack-minded Austrian can transform his new side just a few training session in remains to be seen but certainly we can expect greater purpose in the final third, especially if Eberechi Eze passes a late fitness test and plays.

    Ayew.jpg

    The England international has been much missed in recent weeks but in Jordan Ayew and Jean-Philippe Mateta the Eagles have others who can trouble a troubled Clarets back-line that has been breached every 33 minutes since Christmas.

    Palace won the corresponding fixture 2-0 in early November and a similar scoreline would not surprise.

    Back Over 1.5 Goals for the hosts @ 11/102.11

    Bet here

    Man United v Fulham (15:00) - Happy feat

    So long crisis, as United finally appear to be entering into a period of sanguine positivity, a dramatic change in mood largely brought about by four league wins on the spin.

    Having a prolific goalscorer in the ranks usually helps in this regard and after firing blanks for 1034 Premier League minutes, Rasmus Hojlund has converted seven in six, bagging in the FA Cup too for good measure. Only Ruud Van Nistelrooy has scored in more consecutive games for United in the modern era.

    Mirroring this increase in productivity, Erik Ten Hag's revived Reds have scored 2.4 per game across their last seven outings. From August to Christmas they were averaging just 1.0.

    It's in midfield however where this contest may well be decided, with Fulham minus the suspended Joao Palhinha. Averaging 2.7 successful tackles per 90 their Portuguese pendulum has only missed six games for the Cottagers since arriving in 2022. They hemorrhaged 17 goals in those games.

    The hosts have scored ten times in recent weeks inside 25 minutes. That seems to be the way to go.

    Back United at 30 minutes @ 6/42.50

    Bet here

    Bournemouth v Man City (17:30) - Another string to their bow

    For all of City's intricate build-up play - that back in the day would have Arsenal accused of trying to walk it into the net - the league champions have notably changed tack of late, happy now to take shots on from range.

    No team in the top-flight have scored more - nine - from outside the box this term and against Brentford midweek speculative attempts became the norm, with nine undertaken from distance in the first-half alone. Two of these came from Julian Alvarez, both on target.

    Only four players have taken on more shots than the Argentine all season.

    Pep Guardiola's men are unbeaten in 14 across all competitions but pertinently have gone behind in each of their last five away games in the Premier League, creating a mountain they have successfully climbed on all-but-one occasion.

    That should offer up some degree of hope for the Cherries, who may be winless in six but are still scoring regularly, finding the back of the net in 15 of their last 16 contests.

    Back Alvarez to have 1 or more shots on target from outside the box @ 6/42.50

    Bet here

    Arsenal v Newcastle (20:00) - Keegan-esque

    Bukayo Saka has notched six in four while the returning Gabby Jesus is always a threat at the Emirates, scoring 63% of his Arsenal goals on home soil.

    After putting a difficult December behind them Mikel Arteta's title challengers have come out all guns blazing in 2024, converting every 21 minutes.

    An abundance of goals also defines the Magpies this term, both for and against, with an average of 3.7 per game across 2023/24. That's positively Keegan-esque.

    It surprises then to be reminded of how low-scoring these encounters have typically been in recent years.

    For the visitors, a lot of their attacking hopes will rest on Bruno Guimaraes, with Alexander Isak's fitness negligible. Fair warning though, he is the player on the pitch who has fouled the most this term.

    Corners are worthy of consideration too, with the Gunners winning 66 more than Newcastle, averaging 7.5 per 90.

    Back Guimaraes to commit 2 or more fouls, Saka to score or assist, and Arsenal over 6.5 corners @ 4/15.00

    Bet here

    Now read Jack Critchley's Saturday Championship Tips here!


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Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.