EFL Championship

Opta Stats: Nine Championship Tips for Saturday Afternoon

Jack Critchley
22 Feb 2024, 09:13
3:00 min read

New Huddersfield boss Andre Breitenreiter — Andre Breitenreiter will be hoping to get off to a positive start with Huddersfield

Using this weekend's Opta Stats, Jack Critchley has selected his nine best bets from Saturday's 3pm matches in the Championship...

Breitenreiter to make an instant impact
Canaries to take at least a point back to East Anglia
Sunderland to breach Swans' defence
Read about Betfair's 90 Minute Payout offer here

Watford vs Huddersfield

Terriers boss to get off to a winning start

Opta Stat:

"Watford have lost four of their last five home league matches (D1), losing their last two in a row. In the Championship, the Hornets haven't lost more in a row at Vicarage Road since a five-game run between October and December 2013"

It's been an underwhelming 2024 for Watford fans. Supporters have sat and watched the Hornets' faint play-off ambitions slowly ebb away with the Hertfordshire side having picked up maximum points just twice since Boxing Day. Both of those victories came away from Vicarage Road and they are without a home success since the end of November. Val Ismael's side beat bottom club Rotherham last weekend, yet it was an unconvincing performance and they were reliant upon an individual moment of brilliance yet again.

Huddersfield appointed Andre Breitenreiter as Darren Moore's successor with the Terriers hoping that the 50-year old can lead the West Yorkshire club to safety. He has spoke about how he wants to play front-footed football and how his door is always open for the players to come and raise their concerns. John Worthington kept things ticking along nicely and if they can continue that level of performance, they are likely to take at least a point back up the M1 on Saturday evening.

Betfair Bet:

Back Huddersfield Draw No Bet at 15/82.88

Southampton vs Millwall

Lions to keep things tight

Opta Stat:

"Southampton have only lost one of their last 26 league games outside of the Premier League against teams from London (W16 D9), a 2-0 defeat to Brentford in December 2010. They are unbeaten in 14 games since then (W12 D2), winning all three this season so far"

Southampton put in an uncharacteristically lethargic performance in midweek as they slipped up against Hull. With Ipswich leaving it late to collect maximum points, it was a sizeable blow for the Saints' automatic promotion hopes and they will be desperate to bounce back here.

Millwall have sacked young coach Joe Edwards and replaced him with former manager Neil Harris. He will have a mandate to keep the Bermondsey outfit in the division and he is likely to start by going back to basics and tightening things up. Harris can make his side tough to beat and although they may struggle to contain the hosts across the 90 minutes, they are unlikely to get thumped.

Betfair Bet:

Back Southampton to Win and Under 3.5 Goals at 9/10

Ipswich vs Birmingham

Another entertaining 90 minutes at Portman Road

Opta Stat:

"Ipswich Town have scored at least two goals in each of their last 17 home Championship matches played on a Saturday, netting 54 times. Including opposition goals (23), the average goals-per-game ratio in these games is 4.5 (77 in 17)"

Ipswich were involved in a rollercoaster 90 minutes on Tuesday night as they left it late to collect three points against rock-bottom Rotherham. It wasn't a vintage performance from Keiran McKenna's side, although they got the all-important three points. The Tractors Boys' matches at Portman Road have been chaotic averaging 4.19 goals per game and there have been 14 across their last three at this venue. The Suffolk outfit also have the habit of coming from behind and have taken 25 points from losing positions this campaign.

Birmingham have improved under Tony Mowbray and notwithstanding the 60-year old's enforced absence here, the Blues are unlikely to change their approach. They've won three of their last five and although their away form has been disappointing, they should have enough firepower to get on the scoresheet. The reverse fixture ended 2-2 and this could easily follow suit.

Betfair Bet:

Back Over 2.5 Goals and BTTS at 1/12.00

Cardiff vs Stoke

Two struggling sides to cancel one another out

Opta Stat:

"Five of the last six league meetings between Cardiff and Stoke have ended as a draw - the other was a 2-1 win for the Bluebirds in March 2022"

Neither set of fans will be happy heading into this contest. Cardiff couldn't find a way past Blackburn in midweek with Erol Bulut's side labouring to a goalless draw on Tuesday night. The loss of Aaron Ramsey is a sizeable blow and their lack of attacking output is hugely concerning. The hosts have scored just three home goals since mid-November with the goal-starved home supporters having last celebrated a goal on Boxing Day.

Stoke have lurched into yet another crisis. The Potters are slowly getting dragged into a relegation battle and have lost five of their last six Championship outings. Admittedly, they weren't awful against Coventry, yet they are struggling for firepower and there a rumours of some of the senior players not giving 100% for boss Steven Schumacher.

Betfair Bet:

Back Draw at 11/53.20

Blackburn vs Norwich

Canaries to scrape past Rovers

Opta Stat:

"Norwich have won their last five away league games against Blackburn - they had only won one of their first 17 visits to Ewood Park between 1936 and 2012 (D4 L12)"

It hasn't been the ideal start for John Eustace at Blackburn. Although they were victorious against out-of-form Stoke in his first game in charge, they have subsequently taken just two points from a possible nine on the road. Worryingly, they've managed just 16 shots across those three matches and Rovers' fans will be hoping for more cutting edge on Saturday afternoon.

Norwich have been one of the division's in-form outfits and David Wagner has guided his side to the brink of the play-offs. With a three point deficit to make up, the Canaries must keep winning and they will fancy their chances of leaving Ewood Park with maximum points once again. Their away form isn't particularly strong, but they have suffered just a single defeat on the road so far in 2024.

Betfair Bet:

Back Norwich Draw No Bet at 10/111.91

QPR vs Rotherham

Absorbing contest in West London

Opta Stat:

"Both teams have scored in each of the last eight league meetings between Queens Park Rangers and Rotherham United, a run stretching back to March 2017"

QPR's January business has reinvigorated their survival hopes and they took all three points against Bristol City last weekend. They've lost just one of their last six games and are unbeaten in three home matches. Marti Cifuentes' side should be able to take three points from this game and with Lucas Andersen having added some creativity to their midfield, they should create plenty of opportunities. Chris Willock and Ilias Chair also appear to be back to their best and they should be able to capitalise on the Millers' shambolic defending.

Rotherham thought they'd rescued a point against Ipswich in midweek only to lose concentration and concede deep into injury time. The South Yorkshire outfit have now lost five in a row and there have been a total of 16 goals across that sequence of games. Nevertheless, the Millers have looked decent going forward in their last two outings and they could contribute to an entertaining 90 minutes.

Betfair Bet:

Back Over 2.5 Goals at 6/52.20

Middlesbrough vs Plymouth

Defensive lapses at the Riverside

Opta Stat:

"Middlesbrough's Finn Azaz was directly involved in 28 goals in 60 league appearances for Plymouth across the last two seasons (15 goals, 13 assists). He's scored two and assisted one goal in his last three league games for current side Middlesbrough"

Boro have been remarkably inconsistent this season although a significant raft of injuries haven't helped. Michael Carrick's side are unlikely to make the top six and its their home form which is holding them back. The Teessiders have taken just two points from a possible 12 at the Riverside and haven't kept a clean sheet in any of their last four here. Finn Azaz has been a bright spark and having spent the first half of the campaign on loan at Home Park, he may be determined to find the back of the net here.

Plymouth are beginning to drop down the table and Ian Foster must find a way of stopping the rot. Nevertheless, it's been a tough run of games including a long trip to Sunderland and home matches against Coventry and Leeds. They will fancy their chances of finding the back of the net here. They've netted in each of their last five away games.

Betfair Bet:

Back Over 2.5 Goals and BTTS at 5/61.84

Sheffield Wednesday vs Bristol City

Ugbo to continue his scoring streak

Opta Stat:

"Iké Ugbo has scored three goals in his last three league matches for Sheffield Wednesday - he only netted four goals in 20 appearances for Cardiff when on loan there earlier this campaign"

Sheffield Wednesday are still deeply entrenched in a relegation battle although their January signings have given a boost. Ian Poveda adds some much-needed creativity whereas Ike Ugbo has proven a competent finisher and with three goals in his first 365 minutes of Championship action, he is likely to get a few chances here.

Bristol City are frustratingly inconsistent and followed up their victory against Southampton with a disappointing defeat against QPR. Sam Bell's season-ending injury is a blow, although Liam Manning's side still have plenty of attacking options. It's hard to know which Robins outfit will turn up here, but they could find it tough to cope with Wednesday's intensity.

Betfair Bet:

Back Ike Ugbo to Score Anytime at 11/43.75

Sunderland vs Swansea

Dodds to improve Sunderland's fortunes

Opta Stat:

"Swansea City have lost five of their last six Championship matches (W1), including each of their last two since a 1-0 win over Hull City"

Mike Dodds will lead Sunderland for the foreseeable future with the caretaker boss jumping into the hotseat following Mick Beale's departure. The fans and the players never seemed to warm to the former QPR boss and there should be a positive response from the supporters on Saturday afternoon. Under Beale, the Black Cats' home form remained strong and they should be taking three points from this clash.

Swansea have struggled under Luke Williams and have lost six of the eight away trips to top half sides so far. The Welsh side have avoided defeat in three of their last four away trips, but they still tend to concede goals and could be vulnerable here.

Betfair Bet:

Back Over 1.5 Sunderland Goals at 8/111.73

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Recommended bets

Back Huddersfield Draw No Bet (vs Watford) @ 15/82.88

Back Norwich Draw No Bet (vs Blackburn) @ 10/111.91

Back Over 1.5 Sunderland Goals (vs Swansea) @ 8/111.73

Jack Critchley's 2023-24 P/L

Staked: 297.00

Returned: 288.50

P/L: -8.50

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Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.