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Arsenal's stuttering attacking process has created just six big chances in six games
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Plan-B required for Mikel Arteta - go and get Ivan Toney?
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Stoppage time swings - how do we profit?
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Arsenal's attack holding them back
Arsenal are out to 8.415/2 on the Betfair Exchange to win the Premier League as Manchester City dominate the market at 1.564/7. Interestingly, despite beating City 1-0 just over two weeks ago, the Gunners have never traded shorter than 5.24/1 to go one better than last season.
There seems a reluctance from the market in believing that Mikel Arteta's team have improved over the summer and are capable of overhauling Pep Guardiola's side over a 38-game season.
I've been firmly in that camp from the opening day - and Arsenal's declining attacking numbers of late have only strengthened my thinking that the north Londoners are likely to fall short on all fronts yet again.
In their last six matches across all competitions, Arsenal have created just six big chances - a metric created and defined by Opta where a player is presented with a chance they'd be reasonably expected to score.
To add some context, Manchester City created six big chances in 90 minutes against Manchester United last weekend whilst Tottenham have forged 14 big chances across their last six matches, albeit against an easier level of opponent.
Arsenal also failed to register an expected goals total higher than 1.00 in four of those six matches against Newcastle (0.57), West Ham (0.73), Chelsea (0.99) and City (0.39). It points to a current lack of penetration and imagination in creating clear chances.
Arteta may have been raving about his players in the aftermath of that nip-and-tuck defeat to Newcastle but it was a blunt attacking performance lacking their usual zip, intensity and urgency in the final third.
There seems a strange desire from the Arsenal attackers to continuously check back into the area where defences are patrolling rather than attack spaces with the pace of power that we know the likes of Gabriel Martinelli and Bukayo Saka possess.
Maybe opposition teams have worked Arsenal out in that regard and are defending those spaces with more authority as the Gunners are always looking to move the opposition from side to side rather than beat them with direct and to-the-point play.
Arteta is a stickler for believing in the process but perhaps he needs to embrace the idea of a Plan-B - maybe in the form of a centre-forward that brings a presence and physicality to the party, which, in turn may just free up a little more space for the key wide players to generate more dangerous one-on-one situations.
Surely, Ivan Toney is staring them straight in the face. He'd add such a new, exciting dimension to an Arsenal attack that is potentially now becoming easier to read, especially up against elite defences.
So many stoppage time goals - and they hurt
Ollie Norwood's penalty, fully 10 minutes into stoppage time, in Sheffield United's 2-1 win over Wolves made me feel queasy.
It sent our advised Notebook best bet down the pan as somehow under 2.5 goals failed to land despite the game sitting pretty and uneventful at 0-0 with 72 minutes on the clock.
It's not the first time this season some late drama has swung an advised bet from 1.11/10 territory when looking at the in-running Exchange prices to end up being a dud. See backing Crystal Palace on the double chance market against Aston Villa and Roy's boys winning 1-0 on 87 minutes before three late Villa goals sent me scrambling for the sick bag.
Of course, this is the game we sign up to. Variance is a key component when factoring in looking back on whether a bet was a sound decision or drenched in stupidity. Some go for you, some against. That's life. But these late collapses, or bad beats, of bets certainly brings the increase this season of stoppage time goals and major incidents back to the forefront of my mind after it dominated a lot of the pre-season chat around football punting.
The evidence is compelling. At this stage of last season there had been 16 stoppage time goals scored whereas this season that figure has rocketed to 43 - a gigantic increase of 169%.
How we approach this drastic change in the Premier League is entirely dependent on the punter in question - taking advantage of Betfair's "90 Minute Payout" offer certainly is a starting point.
But whether it's in-running or potentially adjusting your goal expectancy figures, late swings are here to stay in the Premier League.
Just please swing my way, shorty.
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