English Premier League

Premier League Predictions: Fulham relegation key to best #OddsOnThat bets

Manchester United boss Erik Ten Hag
Will Erik Ten Hag guide United to a Top 4 Finish this season?

"It will take some turnaround from last term to see Leeds finish in the top 10, and put bluntly, I don't think they'll do it. Leeds to finish bottom half looks a very safe bet."

With the 2022/23 Premier League season nearing its kick-off Mike Norman takes a look at Betfair's unique #OddsOnThat markets, and picks out four bets to consider...

What are #OddsOnThat bets?

Betfair's #OddsOnThat bets are usually two or more selections grouped together to form one simple-to-place bet, either requested by customers or priced up as likely popular bets by the Betfair traders.

An example being, if you fancied Tottenham and Arsenal both to finish in the top four, and both Everton and Nottm Forest to be relegated, you wouldn't be able to place that bet on the Sportsbook. But with #OddsOnThat you can - all four selections are grouped together as one bet, available to back at 50/1.

OddsOnThat also caters for unusual single bets that wouldn't normally have their own market, for example, 'Liverpool scores 5 or more goals in 6 or more EPL matches' (5/1) or '5 or more corners in each EPL match' (150/1).

You can find Betfair's wide range of #OddsOnThat bets in the Outrights section of the English Premier League on the Sportsbook (see below image).

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To request an #OddsOnThat price simply send a Tweet to @Betfair using the hashtag #OddsOnThat.

Below are four #OddsOnThat selections that I beleive have a better chance of landing than their odds suggest, ranging from 2/1 to 33/1.

We just need Fulham to be relegated, right?

Man City & Liverpool both Top 4 Finish, Leeds Bottom Half Finish & Fulham Relegated @ 2/1

In Betfair's Relegation market, Fulham can be backed at 5/4. I'd like to think that this #OddsOnThat bet ultimately means that we're getting 2/1for Fulham to be relegated.

And who doesn't like 2/1 about a 5/4 shot?

Okay, it's not quite as simple as that but you have to believe that the first part of the bet - Man City and Liverpool both to finish in the top four (combined odds of around 1/12) - looks pretty much a forgone conclusion.

Leeds United finished 17th last season, and they've since lost their two star players - Kalvin Phillips and Raphinha - so it's no surprise at all to see them priced up as fourth favourites to be relegated at 12/5.

It will take some turnaround from last term to see Leeds finish in the top 10, and put bluntly, I don't think they'll do it. Leeds to finish bottom half looks a very safe bet.

So that just leaves Fulham to be relegated which I believe has a very big chance of happening.

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I'm not going to go into huge detail as to why I think the Cottagers will struggle as it's pretty obvious really - they're a newly-promoted club with a yo-yo reputation (last five seasons read Championship, PL, Championship, PL, Championship), and as of yet Marco Silva hasn't made any major breakthrough in the transfer market.

On top of that Fulham have lost one of their star players - Fábio Carvalho joining Liverpool - and Premier League history shows us that at least one promoted club has gone straight back down in 27 of 30 seasons.

Back Liverpool & Man City both Top 4 Finish, Leeds Bottom Half Finish, and Fulham Relegated @

2/1

Will Ten Hag get United into top four?

Liverpool & Man Utd both Top 4 Finish, Brighton Top Half Finish & Fulham Relegated @ 9/1

Another #OddsOnThat bet featuring Fulham to be relegated includes Manchester United improving under new boss Erik Ten Hag.

To be honest, I don't have a strong opinion as to whether or not United will finish in the top four but they're just 5/4 in the Top 4 Finish market and seemingly in a battle with just Chelsea, Tottenham (both 4/6) and Arsenal (15/8) for two places.

United were bitterly disappointing last season when they could only finish sixth, but that can easily be put down to the disastrous spell under Ralf Rangnick, who won just 10 of his 24 league games in charge.

It's worth remembering that United finished second in the Premier League table the season before last, and if Ten Hag can bring back some consistency and confidence, then he has a very strong squad to work with, especially if Frenkie de Jong joins Christian Eriksen in the heart of midfield.

I'm happy to chance United finishing in the top four along with Liverpool, and with the Fulham to be relegated part of the bet already discussed, it just leaves Brighton to finish in the top half of the table.

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The Seagulls finished ninth last term under the excellent management of Graham Potter and you get the feeling that they're only going to get better, despite losing Yves Bissouma to Tottenham.

There's only really Newcastle who finished below Brighton last season that you'd be worried about improving past the Seagulls, so a top half finish is certainly achievable for Potter's men.

Back Liverpool & Man Utd both Top 4 Finish, Brighton Top Half Finish & Fulham to be Relegated @

9/1

Big season ahead for Magpies

Newcastle Top 6 Finish & Everton to be Relegated @ 12/1

Two weeks ago I put my case forward for backing Everton to be relegated - you can read it here - but to quickly summarise, I'm not convinced Frank Lampard is the right man, they have very little money to spend, they narrowly avoided relegation last term, and the Toffees are shaping up to have a weaker squad for this campaign.

Everton are 9/2 to be relegated but at a much shorter price in the Top 6 Finish market you'll find Newcastle, and it's easy to see why.

The Magpies were easily one of the best teams in the Premier League from the turn of the year, accumulating 38 points from their 19 matches (W12, D2, L5) at an average of exactly two points per game.

That sort of form over a full season isn't just good enough to comfortably finish in the top six, it would also massively challenge a top three or four finish.

Whether Newcastle can carry that form to this season, and maintain it throughout the whole campaign is the big question, but you simply have to say to yourself, why not?

Eddie Howe has cash to burn in the transfer market so the only problem in that regard is convincing top class players to join the Magpies knowing they don't have European football.

But it's easy to envisage some big-name players arriving before the end of the transfer window, and if that does happen then Newcastle will become major contenders to break into the top six.

Back Newcastle Top 6 Finish & Everton to be Relegated @

12/1

Success for Manchester clubs, not so for Brentford

Man City to win Premier League, Man Utd Top 4 Finish & Brentford to finish Bottom @ 33/1

The key to these #OddsOnThat wagers is to try and find one where you can easily see some legs of the bet landing, therefore giving you much bigger odds on the riskier leg of the bet.

This one is a prime example, as it doesn't need explaining as to why Manchester City are the most likely winners - and odds-on to do so - of the Premier League this season, while we've already made a case for United finishng in the top four.

So when you consider that Brentford are just 13/5 to be relegated, and probably no bigger than around 8/1 to finish bottom once that market materialises, then 33/1 for the Bees to finish bottom along with the other two legs of the bet seems very fair.

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Thomas Frank's men defied the doubters last term, finishing a brilliant 13th in the table on their Premier League debut, but we've all heard of second-season-syndrome and that has to be a massive worry for this season.

We only have to go back two seasons to see that Sheffield United finished rock bottom in their second season back in the top flight, this coming 12 months after finishing 9th! And then there's Leeds, who struggled last term, narrowly avoiding relegation, in their second season back in the Premier League.

Without the departed Christian Eriksen we can expect similar troubles for Brentford this term. Whether they'll struggle enough to finish bottom we'll have to wait and see.

Back Man City to win Premier League, Man Utd Top 4 Finish & Brentford to finish Bottom @ 33/1

33/1

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