English Premier League

Jones Knows Notebook: Alternative end of season awards

Low goal counts are the Wembley way
Low goals count - it's the Wembley way

Sky Sports' betting expert Lewis Jones - aka 'Jones Knows' - is back with his weekly Notebook column where he reveals his best and worst bets of the season and tips up a Wembley treble...

Best bet of the season...

Best to start on a positive. I am such a big head after all.

Latching onto forward players who aren't given the respect they deserve in the market has proven a sustainable method of attack. Michael Olise, Leon Bailey and Phil Foden have all landed some tasty profit at various points of the season but the 18/119.00 which was dangled and landed on Dejan Kulusevski to score and assist vs Nottingham Forest was a particular delight. When confident, he's a tremendously gifted footballer, who is always overpriced in the attacking based markets.

Worst bet of the season...

I do love a corner bet. There is value to be had when finding the right spot. This one didn't go to plan when constructing a Bet Builder on England v Australia in October though.

My exact words were: "Australia to win under 2.5 corners - the lowest line available - at 4/61.67 should land comfortably."

Well, Australia won eight corners. Enough said.

Quirkiest stat of the season...

I thoroughly enjoyed the insane numbers behind Liverpool's 4-2 win over Newcastle on New Year's Day.

Jurgen Klopp's men racked up a record expected goals tally of 7.27 according to Opta. The previous highest ever expected goals tally in a Premier League match was 5.87 put up by Manchester City vs Watford.

City did win that match 8-0 whilst Liverpool were only drawing 1-1 with 16 minutes left of this one. Bonkers.

Much of that chronic underperformance was down to Darwin Nunez, who had eight shots, missed three big chances to an xG of 1.53 in a chaotic 64 minutes of action.

Trend of the season...

Late drama.

Teams won a collective 274 points from losing positions this season in the Premier League, breaking the previous record set in the 12/13 season of 262. There were 63 comeback wins this season, also a new Premier League record.

The extra injury-time played a huge part in those soaring numbers. This season saw an average of 11.36 minutes added on per game, over three minutes per game more than last season and has resulted in 103 injury-time goals being scored. Again, a new Premier League record.

Red herring of the season...

Bit of a futures play this one but assuming the three Championship promoted teams will be rubbish based on Sheffield United, Luton and Burnley going straight back down.

The trio collected only 66 points between them, which is the fewest collected by relegated clubs during a 38-game season in Premier League history.

That could lead people to suggest that the gap between tiers could be widening but I think it was more down to this season's trio being a bad bunch, especially Sheffield United who somehow severely weakened their squad after promotion. Leicester, Ipswich and one of Leeds and Southampton should be better equipped after some record-breaking numbers and performances this season. Keep an eye on their prices to avoid relegation when the markets form.

Premier League winner next season...

Manchester City are 13/102.30 with the Betfair Sportsbook but that is ripe for taking on considering the potential of for points deductions regarding the 115 charges for breaking financial fair play rules and doubts about Pep Guardiola's long-term future at the club.

Arsenal are the ones primed to take advantage at 2/13.00 but I wouldn't discount the 28/129.00 about Tottenham if they can continue to recruit smartly and keep the impressive Ange Postecoglou happy.

Punting lesson of the season...

Oppose goals in matches at Wembley.

I'm convinced the place saps the momentum out of a game. Maybe the jeopardy of what is at stakes plays a part which in turn leads to low-scoring football matches but I think games there rarely spark into life.

Is it the pitch? Is it the grass? Is it the atmosphere? I don't know. But what I do know is the numbers are painting some hard evidence behind low scoring matches. In the last 36 domestic matches played at Wembley the average total goals per 90 stands at a miserly 1.94 in normal time. Only four of those games have gone above the 3.5 goals line, too.

There are three more finals to come at Wembley stadium to come over the next two weeks: the FA Cup final, the Championship play-off final and the Champions League final. The under 3.5 goals treble currently pays just over 2/13.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook and is certainly a bet to consider if you don't mind tying some money up on a relatively short price for a couple of weeks.

Follow Lewis Jones' Premier League tips and predictions across Sky Sports

Now read our Euro 2024 Golden Boot tips here!

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