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Three player props to back this weekend
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Back Forest winger for shots and Blues defender fouls
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Bruno Fernandes to lead by example against Man City
Back Forest's hotshot winger
This season Nottingham Forest have ripped up the Premier League's top four rule book, and while they don't exactly play champagne football, their style is incredibly effective and they hit teams where it hurts. A rock solid defence with a midfield that will turnover possession and counter attack in the blink of an eye. It took just 16 seconds for Forest to have the ball in the net after Bruno Fernandes took Man United's corner kick on Tuesday night.
It was Anthony Elanga who raced up into the Man United half to score the only goal of the game against his former club in the fifth minute, skipping past three players in the process. The winger is going through a very clinical and efficient shooting spell at the moment, with four shots in his last three games, all of which have been on target.
Against Aston Villa on Saturday, Nuno Espirito Santo's side will create opportunities once again on the counter attack, and I expect Elanga to continue to create chances with his shooting boots and I can see him being clinical enough again to land one or more shots on target at 5/42.25.
Back Elanga to have 1+ shots on target
Fouls expected in West London derby
Even though Enzo Maresca's side got themselves back into the top four with a win over Spurs on Thursday night, the race for a Champions League spot is about the only thing keeping the hype lights on for the Premier League at the moment and Chelsea have a lot to do still to convince me they will finish there, starting with this game against their West London rivals. The so called pride of London don't have a great record against Brentford (just a bus stop in Hounslow), winning only one of their last six meetings.
It is cliché to tip fouls in a derby, right? Whatever, looking at the player fouls market, this guy has caught my eye and has solid form for bringing down an opposition player.
Levi Colwill has committed eight fouls in just his last three matches, and is coming up against Yoane Wissa, who has drawn a massive 13 fouls in his last six games, as well as Byan MBuermo, who likes to come in off the right and run at players.
The young defender to commit two or more fouls at 23/103.30 looks a very appealing price in this West London derby.
Back Levi Colwill to commit 2+ fouls
United's redeemer the value in Manchester derby
Full disclosure, I'm writing this with my (pessimistic) blue tinted glasses on... Sunday's Manchester Derby is a massive game for City, they can not afford to drop points in the race to secure a spot in next season's Champions League, and while they had a spirited win away in the FA Cup at Bournemouth and a home win against Leicester midweek where they hardly got out of first gear, this is a completely different test and the pressure is on them to get a result.
United showed glimmers of hope in their defeat against Nottingham Forest on Tuesday evening, they will be keen to do all they can to make it a difficult derby match for Pep Guardiola's team, and Reuben Amourim has City's number this season, having dismantled them 4-1 with Sporting in the Champions League back in November before his United side sucker punched the blues with two killer blows late on at the Etihad to take three points back across town. Thankfully this isn't a match result tipping column.
City are still vulnerable defensively, and the back four is very makeshift, if Matheus Nunes starts at right back I'm expecting it to be a bad day, his recent performances in that role completely shine a spotlight on their need to urgently bring in a right-back in the summer transfer window. City are there to get at and Untied know this having turned the last derby on its head late on.
Despite United's inadequate attack, Bruno Fernandes has dragged them through plenty of games this season, and is a real threat at home having been involved in 19 goals in his last 18 games at Old Trafford in all competitions (12 goals, 7 assists), either scoring (5 goals) or assisting (2 goals) in each of his last five home appearances, and on top of that, he's been involved in a goal in both of his last two Manchester derbies. So, needless to say, I quite fancy him to score or assist at 6/42.50. That still means that City can win 3-1!
Fernandes could also be a nice price in the Build Ups markets when matched up against the likes of any of City's Phil Foden, Jeremy Doku or Savinho given the attacking trio have just two goal involvements between them in Man City's last five Premier League matches.
Back Fernandes to score or assist