Premier League Opta Stats: Best bets for Matchday 28

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Get Opta stats and the best bets for Premier League matchday 28

Get the Opta stats and a tip for all 10 Premier League Matchday 28 fixtures this weekend...


Wolves v Aston Villa: Back visitors to strike first in bet builder

Friday 27 February, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports

The Opta Stat:

Wolves have conceded the first goal in 22 different Premier League games this season, more than any other side. In fact, of the 40 teams to play 200+ games in the competition, Wolves have conceded first in the highest percentage of them (59.6% - 266/446). 

Aston Villa had 66.8% possession in their 1-1 draw with Leeds last time out; Villa won their first three games when having 65%+ possession under Unai Emery but have since won just five out of 17 games when dominating that much of the ball (D8 L4), winning just one of five games in 2025-26 (D2 L2).

Betfair Bet: Back Aston Villa to score first and BTTS Yes @ 7/42.75


Bournemouth v Sunderland: Back the Cherries and BTTS

Saturday 28 February, 12:30
Live on TNT

The Opta Stat:

Only Manchester United (10) are on a longer run of unbeaten Premier League matches than Bournemouth (7 - W4 D3). Should they avoid defeat here, it'd be their second eight game unbeaten run in 2025-26, having gone 11 matches winless between these streaks.

The reverse fixture finished 3-2 to Sunderland so goals for both teams seem a distinct possibilty. 

Betfair Bet: Back Bournemouth and Both Teams to Score @ 13/53.60


Burnley v Brentford: Back Clarets to avoid defeat again

Saturday 28 February, 15:00

The Opta Stat:

Brentford have won 10 of their last 12 Premier League games against promoted sides, though the two exceptions have come in their last four matches (1-2 vs Sunderland in August, 1-1 vs Leeds in December). With a win over Crystal Palace and a draw at Chelsea, Burnley have earned four points from their last two Premier League games, just one fewer than they had in their previous 16 (D5 L11). 

Betfair Bet: Back Burnley Double Chance @ 11/102.11


Liverpool v West Ham: Back Reds' comeback win

Saturday 28 February, 15:00

The Opta Stat:

Fifty-nine per cent of West Ham's Premier League goals this season have come in the first half, the highest share in the division (19/32). Meanwhile, Liverpool have scored the lowest share of their goals in the opening 45 minutes this term (31% - 13/42). 

Liverpool's Premier League games have seen more goals scored in the 90th minute (including stoppage time) than any other side this season (13 - F7 A6). Nine of these goals have altered the result of the match, with the Reds scoring three winners (D2 L4). 


Newcastle v Everton: Back Ramsey to make an impact

Saturday 28 February, 15:00

The Opta Stat:

Jacob Ramsey has a goal (vs Spurs) and assist (vs Man City) across his last two Premier League appearances for Newcastle. Only once previously has he scored or assisted in three in a row, doing so for Aston Villa in May 2023.

And remember, if you back Ramsey and he is substituted without delivering for a goal or assist, your bet will automatically be transfered to whoever replaces him thanks to Betfair's Safe Sub.

Betfair Bet: Back Ramsey to score or assist @ 11/53.20


Listen to Football...Only Bettor Saturday preview


Leeds v Man City: Back Whites to trip up title contenders

Saturday 28 February, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports

The Opta Stat:

Leeds United haven't lost any of their last 25 league or play-off matches at Elland Road that have kicked off after 5pm (W20 D5) since a 6-1 defeat to Liverpool in April 2023.



Brighton v Nottm Forest: Back Seagulls to keep a clean sheet

Sunday 1 March, 14:00
Live on Sky Sports

The Opta Stat:

Brighton ended a six-game winless Premier League run with a 2-0 win over Brentford last time out. The Seagulls last won consecutive games in November, with wins against Brentford and then Nottingham Forest. 

Only bottom side Wolves (15) have failed to score in more Premier League games this season than Nottingham Forest (13). Their 1-0 defeat to Liverpool in Vitor Pereira's first league game in charge was the third time this season they failed to score under a new manager in his maiden game - Ange Postecoglou in September at Arsenal (0-3) and Sean Dyche in October at Bournemouth (0-2) the others. 

Betfair Bet:  Back Brighton to win to nil @ 11/43.75


Fulham v Tottenham: Back Jimenez to strike first

Sunday 1 March, 14:00
Live on Sky Sports

The Opta Stat:

Raúl Jiménez has scored the opening goal of the game in 32 of the 61 Premier League matches he has scored in (52.5%), including in four of Fulham's last 11 games. Among players to score in 50+ games, only James Beattie has scored the opener in a higher share of matches he found the net (62.3%, 48/77). 

Betfair Bet: Back Jimenez to be first goalscorer @ 9/25.50


Man Utd v Crystal Palace: Back Sesko to extend scoring streak

Sunday 1 March, 14:00
Live on Sky Sports

The Opta Stat:

Benjamin Sesko has netted five goals in six league games for Manchester United since the departure of 
Ruben Amorim, averaging a goal every 37 minutes in this run. Heading into MD28, no player has more non
penalty goals in the Premier League in 2026 than the Slovenian (5).

Betfair Bet: Back Sesko to score @ 6/52.20


Arsenal v Chelsea: Back Eze to score in a feisty affair

Sunday 1 March, 16:30
Live on Sky Sports

The Opta Stat:

Chelsea have lost eight of their last nine away Premier League matches against sides starting the day top of the table, winning the other 2-1 against Man City in May 2021. They've played nine away top-flight games against Arsenal when the Gunners are top and won one (D2 L6), a 2-0 win in March 1948. 

Eberechi Eze has scored each of his last 11 Premier League goals in London, with all six of his goals for Arsenal this season coming in London derbies (1 vs Crystal Palace, 5 vs Spurs), the most ever by a player in a season without scoring outside of London derby games. The last Gunners player with more derby goals in a season was Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang in 2018-19 (7). 

Eze delivered for this column last week but if he doesn't this time, and Mikel Areta brings off the England man, his replacement will carry your bet thanks to Safe Sub.


Now read Mike Norman's preview of Premier League Matchday 28


Recommended bets

Back West Ham/Liverpool @ 18/119.00

Back Leeds Double Chance and BTTS 'Yes' @ 9/52.80

Back Eze to score and a red card in the match @ 14/115.00

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