English Premier League

Premier League Opta Stats MD20: Back 11/4 tip and 16/1 Liverpool v Man Utd best bet

Alexander Boyes
04 Jan 2025
3:00 min read

Liverpool forward Mohamed Salah — Salah more goals (12) and assists (6) against United than any player in Premier League history

Three winners last week was a decent return in a tough fixture list, and we hit the post with a couple more, so confidence is high for the first Opta powered Premier League bets of 2025...

Start the weekend off with Spurs Bet Builder
Daniel Munoz is the best bet of the day on Saturday
Erling Haaland could rediscover magical touch against Hammers
Arsenal to get the job done at Brighton
Back OddsBoost at Anfield on Sunday up from 12/113.00
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Betfair's Saturday Superboost!

Tottenham v Newcastle should be a lively way to get the first Saturday of 2025 underway in the Premier League and Betfair have come up with an appealing Superboost for the 12:30 kick-off.

Alexander Isak scored 25 Premier League goals for Newcastle in 2024 while Anthony Gordon has been directly involved in a goal in each of his last four Premier League appearances for the Magpies.

The pair will enjoy playing against a Tottenham side that leave plenty of gaps at the back.

Recommended Bet

Back Isak and Gordon to combine for 2 or more shots on target was 4/9 NOW

SBK1/1

Tottenham Hotspur v Newcastle United

Play the goals filled Bet Builder in North London

The Opta Stat:

"Tottenham vs Newcastle is the most played Premier League fixture never to finish 0-0 (59 meetings). There have been 189 goals scored in games between the sides, the third highest scoring fixture in Premier League history. For Spurs, Brennan Johnson is their top scorer in all competitions this season with 11 goals, while the Welshman has also either scored (2) or assisted (2) a goal in each of his last four Premier League home games.

Anthony Gordon has been directly involved in a goal in each of his last four Premier League appearances for Newcastle United (1 goal, 3 assists), assisting in each of his last two away games against Ipswich and Man Utd."

The Betfair Bet:

Back both teams to score two or more goals, and both Brennan Johnson & Anthony Gordon to score or assist @ 11/26.50

Aston Villa v Leicester City

Watkins to show he's still the main man

The Opta Stat:

"Ollie Watkins has been involved in 97 goals in 165 Premier League appearances for Aston Villa (67 goals, 30 assists). Watkins both scored and assisted in a Premier League game for the 10^th time in their 2-2 draw with Brighton, the most of any Villa player in the competition."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Ollie Watkins to have 2 or more goal involvements @ 2/13.00

Bournemouth v Everton

Stubborn Everton to lose it late

The Opta Stat:

"Bournemouth have scored a league-high 10 goals in the final five minutes (86^th min onwards) of Premier League games this season. The Cherries are also ultimately eight points better off thanks to goals scored in this timeframe (9 points gained, 1 point lost), the biggest difference so far this term.

The Betfair Bet:

Back Draw/Bournemouth in the HT/FT market @ 7/24.50

Crystal Palace v Chelsea

Munoz the value play at Selhurst Park

The Opta Stat:

"Thirty per cent of Crystal Palace's Premier League goals this season have been scored by defenders, the highest share in the division (6/20). The Eagles last had more goals scored by defenders overall in a Premier League campaign in 2017-18 (10).

"Daniel Munoz has scored two in 2024/25 and has had 21 attempts this season (9 on target), a tally only bettered by three of his teammates."

The Betfair Bet:

Recommended Bet

Back Daniel Munoz to have 1 or more shots on target

SBK11/4

Manchester City v West Ham United

Could this be a perfect fixture for Erling?

The Opta Stat:

"In 2024, West Ham conceded more goals than any other Premier League side (79), finishing the year with a 5-0 home defeat against Liverpool. For Man City, Erling Haaland has scored seven goals in just five Premier League games against West Ham, though only one of these has come at the Etihad Stadium."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Erling Haaland to score 2 or more goals @ 5/23.50

Southampton v Brentford

Brentford are rubbish away but Saints could help turn tide

The Opta Stat:

"Southampton have lost their opening two Premier League matches under new manager Ivan Juric. Six previous managers have lost their opening three league games with the Saints, most recently Nathan Jones in the 2022-23 campaign.

"Brentford only won six of their first 17 Premier League games against sides in the relegation zone (D4 L7) but have since won their last three in a row, scoring five goals in each of their last two wins (5-1 v Luton in April last season, 5-3 v Wolves in October this season)."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Over 2.5 Brentford goals

Brighton & Hove Albion v Arsenal

Brighton's surprising home record

The Opta Stat:

"Brighton and Hove Albion scored just 21 goals at the Amex in the Premier League in 2024, a drop of 25 goals from 2023 when they scored 46. They failed to score in six home games in 2024, having only failed to score in one in 2023.

No side won more points in the Premier League in 2024 than Arsenal (85). Their 26 wins were their most in one year since 2004 (also 26), their 89 goals were their most since 1963 (112) and their 18 clean sheets were their most since 1999 (19)."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Arsenal to win-to-nil @ 12/53.40

Fulham v Ipswich Town

Robinson could be Liverpool's left-back target

The Opta Stat:

"Antonee Robinson assisted 10 Premier League goals for Fulham in 2024, the joint most by a Cottagers player in a single year, along with Luís Boa Morte in 2005. Robinson in 2024 is one of only two players in Premier League history with 10+ assists in a year without scoring a goal, along with Kieran Trippier in 2023 (0 goals, 10 assists)."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Anontee Robinson to assist anytime @ 4/15.00

Liverpool v Manchester United

Let's chance the boost for a fun Anfield play

The Opta Stat:

"So far this season, Mo Salah (2.05), Luis Diaz (1.33) and Cody Gakpo (1.51) are averaging 4.89 shots on target per 90 in all competitions between them. In Liverpool's last three matches, the trio have managed seven (v West Ham), five (v Leicester City) and eight (v Spurs). They have combined for eight or more shots on target once, seven or more five times, six or more seven times and five or more on eight occassions."

The Betfair Bet:

Recommended Bet

Back Mo Salah, Luis Diaz & Cody Gakpo to combine for 8 or more shots on target (was 12/1)

SBK16/1

Wolverhampton Wanderers v Nottingham Forest

Nuno to haunt former employers

The Opta Stat:

"Jørgen Strand Larsen has scored in six Premier League matches for Wolves this season (seven goals) but is yet to be on the winning side in any of them (D2 L4). In Premier League history, only Michael Kightly has ever scored in more games without winning (7 - D2 L5).

Nottingham Forest have won their last five Premier League games. They haven't won six in a row in the top-flight since a run of seven between May and September 1979 under Brian Clough, while they last did so within the same season in 1966-67 (two runs of six wins)."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Jorgen Strand Larsen to score and Forest double chance @ 5/16.00

Opta Stats P/L 2024-25 -

(Recommended bet(s) of the week)

Stake: 36pts
Return: 60.55
P/L: +24.55
ROI: +68%

(Overall Column)

Stake: 164pts
Return: 175.18
P/L: +11.18
ROI: +6.8%

Now read more of today's best tips and previews here!

Recommended bets

Back Daniel Munoz to have 1 or more shots on target @ 11/43.75

Back Mo Salah, Luis Diaz & Cody Gakpo to combine for 8 or more shots on target (was 12/1) @ 16/117.00

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Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.