English Premier League

Premier League Opta Stats: 10 bets including 13/2 goals tip and 6/1 Bet Builder

Alexander Boyes
09 Dec 2023, 11:22
3:00 min read

Aston Villa went third during a full midweek slate of Premier League actop and next host leaders Arsenal. The Opta stats paint a picture of the top of the table clash, as well as the other nine matches, and we find a bet for each...

Why should we turn down over 2/13.00 on Villa?
Let Klopp's side get us off to a flyer this weekend
Bmouth can hurt Man Utd but back hosts in 6/17.00 BB
Chelsea may be the most untrustworthy PL side now
City in title trouble but Haaland wants vengeance at 2/13.00

Crystal Palace v Liverpool

Goal-shy Palace can help us boost the Reds

The Opta Stat:

"Liverpool manager Jürgen Klopp has won 12 of his 16 Premier League meetings with Crystal Palace (D2 L2), his joint-most against a side in the competition (also 12 v West Ham). In his managerial career, only against SC Freiburg (13) has he won more league games. Indeed, since the start of October, no side have won fewer Premier League games than Crystal Palace (W1 D2 L5), while only Sheffield United (6) have scored fewer goals than the Eagles (7)."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Liverpool to win-to-nil @ 15/8

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Brighton & Hove Albion v Burnley

The run keeps on going

The Opta Stat:

"Brighton and Hove Albion are on the longest scoring run in the Premier League (31 games) and also the longest run of conceding (19 games) of any team. Only five teams in top-flight history have scored and conceded in 20+ consecutive matches, most recently Newcastle United between December 1957 and August 1958 (21)."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Brighton to win and BTTS @ 9/5

Manchester United v Bournemouth

Plenty of positives in win over Chelsea

The Opta Stat:

"Since the start of October, only Arsenal (19) have won more Premier League points than Manchester United (18), with the Red Devils winning six of their eight games in that time. However, after winning just three points in their first nine Premier League games this season (D3 L6), Bournemouth have picked up 13 points in their last six games (W4 D1 L1), winning three of their last four games (D1). Indeed, Luis Sinisterra has been involved in four goals in his last five Premier League starts, scoring three goals for Leeds United in April and assisting Marco Senesi's goal last time out for the Cherries away at Crystal Palace."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Man Utd to win, BTTS & Luis Sinisterra to score or assist @ 6/1

Sheffield United v Brentford

Wilder can take hope from Liverpool defeat

The Opta Stat:

"Brentford have lost three of their last four Premier League matches (W1), as many as in their previous 14 games (W7 D4 L3). They've lost two games when scoring first this season, more than in their first two seasons combined (1). Meanwhile, new Sheffield United boss Chris Wilder has never lost in four previous league meetings with Brentford (W3 D1). In his Football League/Premier League managerial career, he has only faced AFC Wimbledon (12), Mansfield (6) and Stoke (6) more times in league games without losing."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Sheffield United Double Chance @ Evens

Wolverhampton Wanderers v Nottingham Forest

Hwang x Cunha

The Opta Stat:

"Since the start of last season, Nottingham Forest have both lost the most away Premier League games (19) and conceded the most goals on the road (62) of any side. Wolves, though, have two in-form forwards, in Hwang Hee-chan who has scored seven goals in his last eight Premier League home games, only failing to score in their 2-1 win over Tottenham in this run, and Matheus Cunha, who has been involved in a goal in each of his last four Premier League appearances for Wolves (2 goals, 2 assists)."

The Betfair Bet:

Back both Hwang and Cunha to score or assist @ 5/2

Aston Villa v Arsenal

Over 2/1 for the best home side? Too hard to ignore

The Opta Stat:

"Aston Villa have won their last 14 home Premier League matches, a run stretching back to March. They've never won 15 consecutive home league games in their entire history, previous having 14 wins in a row ending in November 1903 and October 1931."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Aston Villa to win @ 12/5

Everton v Chelsea

Dyche will see this as a chance

The Opta Stat:

"Chelsea have lost 17 Premier League games in 2023, more than they did in 2021 and 2022 combined (16). It's their most league defeats in a single year since losing 20 in 1993. Between 2001 and 2022, the Blues only reached double figures for defeats in two years, losing 11 in 2015 and 12 in 2019. They have conceded 24 goals in their 15 Premier League games this season, their joint most at this stage of a season, along with in 2015-16. The 194 shots they have faced is their most after 15 games in a season that Opta has on record (since 2003-04)."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Everton to beat Chelsea @ 21/10

Fulham v West Ham United

Recent form doesn't match scoring price

The Opta Stat:

"Only against Everton and Southampton (both 5) does Fulham's Raúl Jiménez have more Premier League goals than versus West Ham (4). The Mexican has four goals in his last five league starts against the Hammers. Indeed, Jiménez has scored three goals in his last four Premier League appearances, as many as in his previous 47 games combined. The Mexican is looking to net in consecutive appearances for the first time since October 2020, when he did so for Wolves against Leeds and Newcastle."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Jimenez to score anytime @ 21/10

Luton Town v Manchester City

Let's not overthink this one

The Opta Stat:

"Man City striker Erling Haaland has scored nine goals in eight Premier League games against promoted sides, only failing to find the net in two of these appearances (v Bournemouth in August 2022 and Nottingham Forest in February). Luton remain without a Premier League clean sheet so far this season (15 games). They conceded 33% of their goals at Kenilworth Road this term in Tuesday's 4-3 defeat against Arsenal (4/12)."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Erling Haaland to score 2+ goals @ 2/1

Tottenham Hotspur v Newcastle United

10 goals in two games last season

The Opta Stat:

"Among the 41 fixtures to be played 50+ times in the Premier League, Newcastle v Tottenham averages more goals per game than any other (3.16 - 177 goals in 56 games). Both sides have scored in each of the last seven league fixtures between the two (16 Spurs goals, 15 Newcastle), with these averaging 4.43 goals-per-game. In Premier League history, only Arsenal v Tottenham (88) and Liverpool v Newcastle (87) have seen more first half goals scored than Newcastle v Tottenham (86). Indeed, the Magpies led 5-0 at half-time in their last meeting in April."

The Betfair Bet:

Back both teams to score in both halves @ 13/2

Opta Stats P/L 2023-24 -

(Single Recommended bet of the week)

Stake: 15pts
Return: 17.1
P/L: +2.1
ROI: +14%

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Recommended bets

Back both teams to score in both halves in Spurs v Newcastle @ 13/27.50

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