English Premier League

Premier League Opta Stats and Predictions: Back 45/1 tip and 7/1 Bet Builder

Manchester United manager Erik Ten Hag
Ten Hag's side have conceded 25+ shots in 6/7 games

Goals rained at Villa Park last weekend to ease us to a 3/14.00 winner and, after near 9/110.00 and 9/43.25 misses, Alex Boyes is more determined to secure a profitable week on MD33 of the Premier League...


Newcastle United v Tottenham Hotspur

We'll take the boosted odds

The Opta Stat:

"With 65 goals scored and 52 conceded, Newcastle's Premier League games have seen more goals than any other side's this season (117). With 65 scored and 45 conceded, Tottenham rank joint-fourth for this (110), meaning both sides average over 3.5 goals per game. Alexander Isak, meanwhile, has scored in each of his last five Premier League home games, netting six goals in total in this run, whilst Son Heung-Min has been involved in 24 goals in his last 25 Premier League appearances, scoring 15 and assisting nine. One more assist would see him become just the sixth player to register double figures for both goals and assists in three separate Premier League campaigns (also 2019-20 and 2020-21), after Wayne Rooney (5), Mohamed Salah (4), Frank Lampard (4), Eric Cantona (4) and Didier Drogba (3)."

The Betfair Bet:


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Brentford v Sheffield United

Our biggest price of the season

Chris Wilder, Sheffield United coach.jpg

The Opta Stat:

"Brentford have dropped 30 points from winning positions in the Premier League this season - only four teams have ever lost more in a single campaign; Chelsea in 1995-96 (33), Wimbledon in 1999-00 (33), Tottenham in 2007-08 (33) and Newcastle in 2004-05 (31). Indeed, Sheffield United haven't kept a clean sheet away from home in the Premier League since May 2021, in a 1-0 win over Everton. They've conceded in each of their last 16 away games in the top-flight, at an average of 2.3 goals per outing (36 conceded in total)."

The Betfair Bet:


Burnley v Brighton & Hove Albion

Kompany's ill-disciplined side

The Opta Stat:

"Burnley have had a league-high seven red cards in the Premier League this season, while only Nottingham Forest (6) have seen their opponents have a player sent off more often than Brighton (4). The last team to receive more red cards in a single campaign were QPR in 2011-12 (9)."

The Betfair Bet:


Manchester City v Luton Town

A way to get City odds-against

The Opta Stat:

"Kevin De Bruyne has been involved in nine goals in just 11 Premier League appearances this season, scoring three and assisting six. He's averaging a goal or assist every 75 minutes this term, the best rate of any player who has played at least 500 minutes. Indeed, in their FA Cup meeting earlier this season, De Bruyne assisted four of Erling Haaland's five goals at Kenilworth Road."

The Betfair Bet:


Nottingham Forest v Wolverhampton Wanderers

Back to the Ait-Nouri mill

The Opta Stat:.

"Rayan Aït-Nouri has scored three goals in his last five appearances in all competitions for Wolverhampton Wanderers - only one fewer than he netted in his first 105 games for the club (4). Indeed, he has managed seven shots on target across his last five games, and at least one in each appearance, totalling 14 attempts across those games. Indeed, he had two shots in the first half last time out against West Ham before being substitued through injury."

The Betfair Bet:


Bournemouth v Manchester United

Ten Hag does not change

Ten Hag.jpg

The Opta Stat:

"After a run of six away games that saw them keep four clean sheets and concede just two goals, Manchester United have now conceded in each of their last eight on the road, shipping 17 goals in total. Indeed, despite coming into this round of games in sixth place in the Premier League table, only bottom side Sheffield United (560) have faced more shots than Manchester United in the Premier League this season (554), while the Red Devils also have the third highest expected goals against figure (58.2). They have faced 25+ shots in six of their last seven games."

The Betfair Bet:


Liverpool v Crystal Palace

Mateta form hard to ignore

The Opta Stat:

"Jean-Philippe Mateta has scored four goals in his last six league games for Crystal Palace, with his seven overall this season his best return in a single Premier League campaign. He opened the scoring for the Eagles in the reverse fixture against Liverpool, with Dwight Gayle in 2013-14 the last Palace player to score home and away against the Reds in a single season."

The Betfair Bet:


West Ham United v Fulham

Odds don't match this corner merchant

The Opta Stat:

"Only Arsenal (13) have scored more goals from corners in the Premier League than Fulham this season (10), while no side has conceded fewer such goals than Marco Silva's side (2). Only in 2010-11 and 2022-23 (both 11) have the Cottagers scored more often from corners in a single Premier League campaign. Indeed, Andreas Pereira has created at least 36 more chances than any other Fulham player this season, with only three other players in the Premier League managing more in 2023-24."

The Betfair Bet:


Arsenal v Aston Villa

Prices not matching Watkins like the others

The Opta Stat:

"Ollie Watkins has been involved in 11 goals in his last 10 Premier League games (9 goals, 2 assists), and seven in his last four away from home (5 goals, 2 assists). His 18 goals overall this season is the second most by an Aston Villa player in a single Premier League campaign, after Christian Benteke (19 in 2012-13)."

The Betfair Bet:

Chelsea v Everton

Chelsea still cannot be trusted

Thumbnail image for Thumbnail image for Mauricio Pochettino smile 1280.jpg

The Opta Stat:

"Chelsea have conceded 52 goals in the Premier League this season, only shipping more in 2015-16 (53), 2019-20 (54) and 1996-97 (55) in 38-game seasons in the competition. Their 25 goals conceded at home this term is their second most in a single campaign after 2015-16 (30)."

The Betfair Bet:


Opta Stats P/L 2023-24 -

(Single Recommended bet of the week)

Stake: 26pts
Return: 26.1
P/L: +0.1
ROI: +-

(Overall Column)

Stake: 267pts
Return: 269.6
P/L: +2.6
ROI: +1%


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Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.