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Premier League Opta Stats: 10 bets to back from 15/8 to a 12/1 Salah Bet Builder

Alexander Boyes
11 March 2023
3:00 min read

Both teams have scored in 14/15 PL meetings between Newcastle & Wolves

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Ten more Premier League matches this weekend calls for ten more Opta stats based bets from Alex Boyes, with some juicy prices to back from a host of different angles...

MD9s 80% success & 15 pts of profit the aim once again
Salah Bet Builder kick-starts our weekend at 12/1
Sterling's form can boost Chelsea to 7/2
Foden form can land us a 4/1 punt without a goal
Newcastle v Wolves has history

Bournemouth v Liverpool

Salah back to his best?

The Opta Stat:

"Liverpool have kept a clean sheet in each of their last five Premier League games, as many as they had in their previous 24 combined. They last had a longer run of games without conceding between December 2019 and January 2020 (7). Indeed, Mohamed Salah has been involved in 10 goals in his last eight games in all competitions (5 goals, 5 assists). The Liverpool forward has both scored and assisted in five different matches in all competitions this term, with no Premier League player doing so more often."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Salah to score, Salah to assist and Liverpool to win to nil @ 12/1

Everton v Brentford

Jensen price can reward us

The Opta Stat:

"Only Ivan Toney (18) has been directly involved in more Premier League goals for Brentford this season than Mathias Jensen (8 - four goals and four assists). The Danish midfielder has scored three times in his last six appearances in the competition, after only netting once in his first 49."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Mathias Jensen to score or assist @ 10/3

Leeds United v Brighton & Hove Albion

Mitoma's the man

The Opta Stat:

"Brighton have only failed to score in one of their 11 Premier League away games so far this season (0-2 vs Brentford in October). No team has failed to find the net in fewer games on the road so far this term (Arsenal also once). Indeed, Kaoru Mitoma has scored six Premier League goals this season - it's the joint-most netted in a single campaign by a Japanese player, level with Shinji Kagawa (2012-13) and Shinji Okazaki (2017-18)."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Mitoma to score anytime @ 15/8

Leicester City v Chelsea

Sterling bouncing back

The Opta Stat:

"Leicester's Brendan Rodgers has won just two of his 21 meetings with Chelsea as a manager in all competitions (D9 L10), with that 10% win ratio against the Blues his lowest against any side he has faced more than twice in his managerial career. inded, Raheem Sterling scored his first Chelsea goals in the Blues' 2-1 win over Leicester in August. He's netted braces in his last two Premier League games against Leicester, having scored just once in his first 14 appearances against them."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Sterling to score in a Chelsea win @ 7/2

Tottenham Hotspur v Nottingham Forest

Kane hits another milestone

The Opta Stat:

"Harry Kane has scored three goals in his three appearances for Spurs against Nottingham Forest in all competitions, including a brace at the City Ground in the reverse fixture this term. He's two goals away from netting 20 Premier League goals in a season for the sixth time, something only Sergio Agüero (6) and Alan Shearer (7) have achieved previously."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Harry Kane to score another brace @ 7/2

Crystal Palace v Manchester City

Foden is undroppable

The Opta Stat:

"Man City's Phil Foden is looking to score in three consecutive Premier League games, previously doing so in June/July 2020, and September/October this season. He's scored nine times in the competition so far this term and could reach double figures for the very first time. He also had a shot on target in each half against Newcastle last time out."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Phil Foden to have 1+ shots on target in each half @ 4/1

Fulham v Arsenal

Arsenal win like champions

The Opta Stat:

"Arsenal have won a league-high five Premier League games when conceding the first goal this season, only winning more such games in the competition in 1999-00 (7), 2003-04 (6) and 2011-12 (6). The Gunners have won a league-high 15 points from losing positions so far this term."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Arsenal to win & BTTS @ 23/10

Manchester United v Southampton

Rashford to bounce back

The Opta Stat:

"Marcus Rashford has scored in each of his last seven Premier League home games; only two Manchester United players have scored in more consecutive appearances at Old Trafford in the competition - Wayne Rooney (8 between December 2009-March 2010) and Cristiano Ronaldo (10 between March-November 2008)."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Marcus Rashford to score first @ 3/1

West Ham United v Aston Villa

Ings to beat Mings

The Opta Stat:

"West Ham striker Danny Ings scored six Premier League goals for Aston Villa this season; he could be the first player to score for and against the Villans in the same Premier League campaign, while he would be the first player to do so with any team since Henrikh Mkhitaryan and Manchester United in 2017-18."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Danny Ings to score @ 2/1

Newcastle United v Wolverhampton Wanderers

There is value based on history

The Opta Stat:

"Only Chelsea vs Manchester United (14), Arsenal vs Tottenham (12) and Aston Villa vs Newcastle (11) have finished 1-1 in the Premier League more often than Newcastle vs Wolves (9), despite this fixture only taking place on 15 occasions previously. Indeed, of all Premier League fixtures to have been played at least 15 times, Newcastle vs Wolves has seen the highest percentage of meetings end in draws (67% - 10/15), and the highest percentage of meetings where both teams have scored (93% - 14/15)."

The Betfair Bet: