Premier League Opta Stats: 10 bets this weekend priced from 11/10 to a 14/1 Bet Builder
Each Premier League weekend seems bigger than the one before with just a handful of games remaining, and Alex has ran through the Opta stats to find a bet for each game based purely on the current patterns and trends....
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Monday Night Football at Elland Road has 10/1 double
Aston Villa v Newcastle United
Runs come to an end?
The Opta Stat:
"Since Unai Emery's first Premier League game in charge of Aston Villa in November, only Arsenal have picked up more points (42) and earned more wins (13) in the competition than the Villans (35 points, 11 wins). Villa have won their last four league games, last winning five in a row in the top-flight in April 1998 under John Gregory. Newcastle, meanwhile, have won each of their last five Premier League games, three of which have been away from home. Only in October 1996 (4) and October 1994 (5) have the Magpies ever won four or more consecutive away games in the competition.
The Betfair Bet:
Chelsea v Brighton & Hove Albion
The Graham Potter Derby
The Opta Stat:
"Brighton have lost just two of their last 12 Premier League games (W6 D4), however both of those defeats came against London clubs (vs Fulham in February and Tottenham last time out). Chelsea, though, have failed to score in each of their last three Premier League games, despite attempting 52 shots with an expected goals total of 5.5. Overall, Chelsea have failed to score in 12 different Premier League matches in 2022-23, their most in a single campaign in the competition."
The Betfair Bet:
Everton v Fulham
Everton pounce on poor Fulham
The Opta Stat:
"Everton have won 10 points in their first five home Premier League games under Sean Dyche (W3 D1 L1), more than they'd picked up in their previous 10 games at Goodison Park (W2 D2 L6 - 8 points). Fulham, meanwhile, have lost each of their last four Premier League games, this after having only lost four of their previous 16 beforehand (W8 D4). The Cottagers last endured a longer losing run in a single top-flight season in April 2019 (run of 9).
The Betfair Bet:
Southampton v Crystal Palace
A game of two ballers
The Opta Stat:
"Only against Tottenham (9) has James Ward-Prowse been involved in more Premier League goals against a side than Crystal Palace (6 - 3 goals, 3 assists). Michael Olise, meanwhile, became the second Crystal Palace player to register three assists in a Premier League game last time out against Leeds, after Jason Puncheon. Indeed, since the start of last season he's recorded 13 assists, at least eight more than any other Crystal Palace player, with the only player aged 21 or younger with more during that time being Arsenal's Bukayo Saka (17).
The Betfair Bet:
Tottenham Hotspur v Bournemouth
Teams successful in pressing these two
The Opta Stat:
"Tottenham have won each of their last five Premier League matches at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, earning more home points in the competition since the start of February than any other side (15). Indeed, Bournemouth (304) and Tottenham (295) have had more high turnovers against them than any other side in the Premier League this season. Meanwhile, despite making fewer high turnovers than any other team (201), only Man City (9) have scored more such goals this term than Tottenham (8).
The Betfair Bet:
Wolverhampton Wanderers v Brentford
One goal may just win this
The Opta Stat:
"Wolves have won four of their last six Premier League home games (L2), as many as their previous 16 beforehand (W4 D3 L9). They have kept a clean sheet in each of those wins, this after having only kept four shutouts in their previous 19 league games at Molineux prior."
The Betfair Bet:
Manchester City v Leicester City
Walk in the park for City
The Opta Stat:
"Leicester have faced the most shots from high turnovers in the Premier League this season (50), while Manchester City have scored more goals following a high turnover than any other side (9). Erling Haaland, meanwhile, has scored 30 Premier League goals for Manchester City this season, with only Andrew Cole netting more in their debut season in the competition (34 in 1993-94). The Norwegian is averaging a goal every 73 minutes so far and has a shot conversion rate of 32.3%. Teammate Kevin De Bruyne has assisted seven goals for Erling Haaland in the Premier League this season, the most by one Man City player for another in a single campaign. The Belgian's next assist will be his 100th for the Citizens in the competition.
The Betfair Bet:
West Ham United v Arsenal
Martinelli Madness
The Opta Stat:
"Arsenal have won 11 Premier League away games this season, only winning more on the road in 2001-02 (14) and 2004-05 (12). The Gunners have the most wins (11), most points (35), most goals scored (30) and fewest goals conceded (11) of any team away from home in the Premier League this term. Indeed, Gabriel Martinelli has been involved in four goals in his four Premier League starts for Arsenal against West Ham (3 goals, 1 assist), netting his first ever goal in the competition in this fixture in December 2019. Against no side has the Brazilian been involved in more league goals for the Gunners."
The Betfair Bet:
Nottingham Forest v Manchester United
Comfortable enough for Red Devils
The Opta Stat:
"Manchester United have won their last nine games against Nottingham Forest in all competitions, beating them three times this season alone (once in league, twice in League Cup). The Red Devils have beaten a side four times in a season twice before, doing so against Sheffield Wednesday in 1993-94 and Chelsea in 2010-11. Indeed, he Red Devils have scored a league-high share 84% of their Premier League goals from open play this season (37/44), with their seven goals from set piece situations (including penalties) the joint-fewest in the division.
The Betfair Bet:
Leeds United v Liverpool
The battle of inconsitency
The Opta Stat:
"Liverpool are averaging 0.87 points-per-game away from home in the Premier League this season (13 pts in 15 away games), their lowest in a campaign since 1992-93 (0.76 - 16 pts in 21 games). Mohamed Salah, though, has seven goals in five Premier League appearances against Leeds for Liverpool, scoring in their 3-0 win at Elland Road last season. Leeds, meanwhile, in the first half of their 5-1 defeat to Crystal Palace, had seven shots on target, the most Opta has on record for the Whites in the first half of a league game (2013-14 onwards).
The Betfair Bet:
Recommended bets
Opta P/L 202-23 (since MD7)
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Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.
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