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Premier League Opta Stats: 10 bets including 5/1 scorer tip and 5/1 Bet Builder at Stamford Bridge

Alexander Boyes
11 November 2023
3:00 min read

Doku is repaying Guradiola's faith

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For the first time this season, last week's column drew a blank. However, more determined than ever, Alex Boyes wades through the Opta facts to find the best betting angles for this weekend's 10 Premier League games, knowing we remain +23.8 pts up for the season.

Man Utd at near 2/13.00 is worth a play despite form
Gordon can fill the Newcastle hole
Salah Anfield run means 5/16.00 play on the double
Doku the man in form against a poor Chelsea side
Claim your completely free Acca or Bet Builder here!

Wolverhampton Wanderers v Tottenham Hotspur

Hwang on fire

The Opta Stat:

"Wolves have scored at least once in each of their last 10 Premier League games, though they've only kept one clean sheet in their last 14. Indeed, both teams have scored in each of Wolves' last eight Premier League matches. Indeed, Wolves' Hwang Hee-Chan has been involved in eight Premier League goals this season (6 goals, 2 assists), his best return in a single campaign in the competition. He's also either scored or assisted in each of his last five Premier League games."

The Betfair Bet:

Back BTTS & Hwang to score or assist @ 2/1

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Arsenal v Burnley

Eddie's home comforts

The Opta Stat:

"All five of Eddie Nketiah's Premier League goals for Arsenal this season have come at the Emirates Stadium, with only Liverpool's Mohamed Salah (6) scoring more home goals in the competition so far this
term. Indeed, Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 37 home league games against promoted sides (W32 D5), inlcuding a 5-0 win over Sheffield United last time out. Burnley, on the other hand, are the joint-lowest scorers in the Premier League so far (8) and have the second worse defence (27) behind the Blades (30)."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Eddie Nketiah to score and Arsenal (-2) handicap @ 5/2

Crystal Palace v Everton

Take the 2/1 on Under 1.5

The Opta Stat:

"Everton have scored 11 Premier League goals from an xG of 16.6, the second biggest underperformance in terms of goals vs expected goals so far this term (5.6), behind only Chelsea (5.7). Indeed, the Toffees have the lowest shot conversion rate of any Premier League side this season (6.9%). Meanwhile, no side have scored fewer home goals in the Premier League than Crystal Palace so far this season (4). They've also conceded just five meaning Selhurst Park has seen fewer goals than
any other ground in 2023-24."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Under 1.5 goals at Selhurst Park @ 2/1

Manchester United v Luton Town

Boost price by changing angle

The Opta Stat:

"This will be Erik Ten Hag's 50^th Premier League game in charge of Manchester United. He's the 17^th manager to reach 50 top-flight games with the Red Devils, while a victory would see him become the only one to win as many as 30 of his first 50 with the club. Luton, though, are yet to keep a clean sheet in the competition, with only Leicester in 1994 conceding in their first 12 Premier League matches (first 18)."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Man United to win both halves @ 15/8

Bournemouth v Newcastle United

No Wilson? No Isak? Get on the man in form

The Opta Stat:

"Newcastle's Anthony Gordon has been involved in four goals in his last five Premier League games (3 goals, 1 assist), netting their winner against Arsenal last time out. It's as many goal involvements as he'd registered in his previous 32 appearances in the competition (3 goals, 1 assist)."

Back Antony Gordon to score anytime @ 2/1

Aston Villa v Fulham

Don't let Villa get ahead

The Opta Stat:

"Since losing consecutive home Premier League games in February (both 4-2 to Leicester and Arsenal), Aston Villa are unbeaten in all 19 Premier League matches when they have taken the lead (W17 D2), not dropping a single point so far this season when going ahead (W7)."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Aston Villa/Aston Villa in the HT/FT Market @ 7/5

Brighton & Hove Albion v Sheffield United

Brighton could pepper Sheff Utd goal

The Opta Stat:

"Sheffield United have lost 23 of their last 26 away Premier League games (W2 D1), losing all five games this season. The last side to lose their first six away games in a Premier League season was the Blades in 2020-21 under Chris Wilder. Indeed, the Blades have faced 23 shots on target in their last three away games, with only Spurs and Man City averaging more shots on target per game than Brighton."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Brighton to have 8 or more shots on target @ 4/5

Liverpool v Brentford

Salah unstoppable at Anfield

The Opta Stat:

"Liverpool have won all eight of their games at Anfield in all competitions this season, all by a margin of 2+ goals. In the Reds' history, only from May to October 1980 have they ever won nine consecutive home games by at least two goals. Indeed, Mohamed Salah has scored (15 goals) or assisted (3 goals) in each of his last 14 home Premier League appearances. Only two players have ever done so in 15 in a row - Alan Shearer (twice, March 1995 - February 1996, 18 in a row & April 1996 - May 1997, 17) and Thierry Henry (November 2002 - October 2003, 17)."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Mohamed Salah to score 2+ goals @ 5/1

West Ham United v Nottingham Forest

Forest not the same on the road

The Opta Stat:

"Since the start of last season, Nottingham Forest have lost more away Premier League games than any other side (17). They've also failed to score in 13 away games in that time, two more than any other team."

The Betfair Bet:

Back West Ham to win and BTTS - No @ 2/1

Chelsea v Manchester City

Doku down the wing

The Opta Stat:

"Jérémy Doku registered four assists in Manchester City's 6-1 win over Bournemouth on MD11, becoming the first City player to assist four goals in a Premier League game. It took his overall total to five assists in eight Premier League appearances - only Kyle Walker-Peters (five games), Elano (seven) and Faustino Asprilla (seven) have assisted five goals in fewer appearances. Chelsea, meanwhile, have lost their last six meetings with Manchester City without scoring - it's their longest losing run against an opponent without reply, while only against Blackburn (1993-1996) and Huddersfield (1931-1933) have they ever lost seven in a row in general."

The Betfair Bet: