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Premier League Opta Stats: 10 bets to back on MD15

Alexander Boyes
10 November 2022
3:00 min read

De Bruyne's ability can kick us off with a 3/1 winner

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Stats guru Alex Boyes is back to analyse the best Opta stats with a 3/1 shout to kick off the weekend, how Palace can win at 9/2, and a 13/1 chance between Brighton and Aston Villa...

5/10 winners land last week

2 pt 2/1 recommended bet sails in

How to back Kane at 11/1 without scoring

Maddison on a high at over 3/1

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Manchester City v Brentford

De Bruyne De man

The Opta Stat:

"Manchester City's Kevin De Bruyne has fired more shots from outside the box than any other player in the Premier League this season (24), with two of his three goals so far coming from distance. Meanwhile, only Tottenham (93) have faced more shots from outside the box than Brentford (92) so far this term."

The Befair Bet:

Back KDB to have 2+ shots on target from outside the box @ 4.03/1

Bournemouth v Everton

Twice in a week?

The Opta Stat:

"Bournemouth did the league double over Everton the last time the sides met in 2019-20, as many wins as they'd managed in their first eight league meetings with the Toffees (W2 D2 L4). Indeed, Since the start of last season, Everton have earned fewer away points than any other ever-present side in the Premier League (16), winning just three of their 26 games on the road (D7 L16)."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Bournemouth to beat Everton @ 2.89/5

Liverpool v Southampton

Nathan Jones' baptism of fire?

The Opta Stat:

"Liverpool forward Roberto Firmino has provided six assists against Southampton in the Premier League, only having more against Bournemouth (7). His next assist will be his 50th in the competition, making him the first Brazilian player to reach that milestone. Teammate Mohamed Salah, meanwhile has 99 goals + assists in 99 Premier League appearances for Liverpool at Anfield (70 goals, 29 assists); in the competition's history, only Thierry Henry for Arsenal has been directly involved in 100+ goals in his first 100 home appearances for a single club (113; 85 goals, 28 assists)."

The Betfair Bet:

Back a Firmino anytime assist & Salah anytime goal @ 4.88

Nottingham Forest v Crystal Palace

Let the pendulum swing

The Opta Stat:

"Crystal Palace have won more points from losing positions than any other side in the Premier League this season (12), while only Leicester (14) have dropped more points from winning positions than Nottingham Forest (12) so far this term."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Crystal Palace to win & BTTS @ 5.59/2

Tottenham Hotspur v Leeds United

Kane's ice-cold head

The Opta Stat:

"Tottenham have scored a league-high nine Premier League goals from corners so far this season - they last scored more such goals in a single campaign back in 2015-16 (10). Indeed, striker Harry Kane has scored a league-high five headed goals in the Premier League this season - only in 2017-18 (6) has he scored more headers in a single campaign."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Harry Kane to have 2 or more headed shots on target @ 12.011/1

West Ham United v Leicester City

Maddison caps his World Cup spot

The Opta Stat:

"With 13 goals and nine assists, Leicester's James Maddison has been involved in more Premier League goals than any other English midfielder in 2022. Indeed, among all players, only Harry Kane (33), Kevin De Bruyne (29) and Son Heung-min (25) have been involved in more than Maddison this calendar year."

The Betfair Bet:

Back James Maddison to score anytime @ 4.3100/30

Newcastle United v Chelsea

Tripps on the spot

The Opta Stat:

"Only Kevin De Bruyne (45) and Andreas Pereira (34) have created more chances for teammates in the Premier League this season than Newcastle's Kieran Trippier (32). The England full-back's 32 chances created is at least twice as many as any other Newcastle player this season."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Kieran Trippier anytime assist @ 4.57/2

Wolverhampton Wanderers v Arsenal

Red mist descends

The Opta Stat:

"Arsenal have had three players sent off across their last two Premier League away games against Wolves, with Gabriel Martinelli seeing red last season, and both David Luiz and Bernd Leno doing so in February 2021."

The Betfair Bet:

Back a red card in the match @ 4.57/2

Brighton & Hove Albion v Aston Villa

Goals on the agenda

The Opta Stat:

"Both Brighton and Aston Villa have scored a league-high six Premier League goals in the opening 15 minutes of games this season. For Aston Villa, it accounts for 43% of their total goals scored this season, and with five of those six strikes coming in their last three games. Indeed, 14 goals have been scored across Brighton's last four matches, whilst 11 have come in Villa's last three Premier League games."

The Betfair Bet:

Back BTTS in both halves @ 14.013/1

Fulham v Manchester United

Portuguese duo combine

The Opta Stat:

"Cristiano Ronaldo has scored seven goals in his last seven Premier League starts for Manchester United against Fulham - only against Aston Villa and Tottenham (8 each) has he netted more against in the competition. Teamate Bruno Fernandes meanwhile. could make his 100th Premier League appearance in this game. He has 38 goals and 26 assists in his 99 games so far, with only three players being involved in more goals in their first 100 for Manchester United in the Premier League - Eric Cantona (84), Ruud van Nistelrooy (78) and Dwight Yorke (66, in 96 games)."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Bruno to score or assist & Ronaldo anytime scorer @ 3.02/1

Watch this week's Football...Only Bettor

Opta Stats P/L

Recommended Bet Of The Week (since MD7)

Staked: 9 pts

Returned: 10.0 pts

P/L: +1.0 pts

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KDB to have 2+ shots on target from outside the box @ 4.03/1

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Manchester City v Brentford

De Bruyne De man

Bournemouth v Everton

Twice in a week?

Liverpool v Southampton

Nathan Jones' baptism of fire?

Nottingham Forest v Crystal Palace

Let the pendulum swing

Tottenham Hotspur v Leeds United

Kane's ice-cold head

West Ham United v Leicester City

Maddison caps his World Cup spot

Newcastle United v Chelsea

Tripps on the spot

Wolverhampton Wanderers v Arsenal

Red mist descends

Brighton & Hove Albion v Aston Villa

Goals on the agenda

Fulham v Manchester United

Portuguese duo combine

Watch this week's Football...Only Bettor

Opta Stats P/L

Get the best of our tips every day of Qatar 2022

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Recommended bets

Read past articles