Premier League Opta Stats: 10 bets to back on MD14
Stats guru Alex Boyes is back to analyse the best Opta stats with 9/2 and 7/2 doubles, plus a 3/1 Exchange play for Betfair ahead of the weekend's Premier League action.
- MD9s 80% successful bets the benchmark to aim for once more
- Ronaldo to see Man Utd to a 2/1 win
- City to net 3+ goals again at 2.56/4
- Arsenal excitingly priced at evens to score first
- The 14/5 draw at Spurs in a "do-not-lose" fixture for both sides
Leeds United v Bournemouth
Marsch and Leeds to pick off Cherries
The Opta Stat:
"Leeds have won all six of their home league games against Bournemouth, with this the first ever top-flight meeting between the sides. It's their best 100% home winning record against an opponent in their league history."
The Betfair Bet:
Manchester City v Fulham
City chasing 90-year-old record
The Opta Stat:
"Manchester City have won their last 10 home Premier League games, scoring at least three times in every single victory (43 goals in total). They could become the first top-flight side to win more than 10 such home games in a row since Aston Villa between December 1930 and September 1931 (13 in a row)."
The Betfair Bet:
Nottingham Forest v Brentford
Two porous defences meet
The Opta Stat:
"Nottingham Forest have conceded 28 goals in their opening 13 Premier League matches this season, their most at this stage of a league season since the 1960-61 campaign. Brentford, meanwhile, kept a clean sheet in two of their first three away Premier League games but have since kept just one in their last 22 on the road, shipping 49 goals."
The Betfair Bet:
Wolverhampton Wanderers v Brighton & Hove Albion
Seagulls to tame Wolves
The Opta Stat:
"Wolves have won just two of their last 20 Premier League games (D6 L12), having won three of their four before this. They've not scored more than once in any of their last 16 league games (9 goals in total). Indeed, as well as being the Premier League's lowest scorers this season (6), Wolves have the lowest shot conversion rate (3.8%) and the biggest negative difference between goals and expected goals (-7.6 - six goals from an xG of 13.6)."
The Betfair Bet:
Everton v Leicester City
Toffees to come unstuck
The Opta Stat:
"Leicester won 4-0 at Wolves in their last away league game, ending a run of five straight defeats on the road in which they'd conceded 19 goals (3.8 per game). They've not won consecutive away games in the Premier League since December 2020. Indeed, the Foxes have scored 21 Premier League goals this season, with an xG of just 13.7'; their overperformance by more than seven goals is bettered only by Manchester City so far this term (37 goals, 24.4 xG)."
The Betfair Bet:
Chelsea v Arsenal
Gunners to come out firing
The Opta Stat:
"Arsenal have scored more goals in the opening 30 minutes of Premier League games this season than any other side (11), while they're the only side yet to concede in this timeframe. The Gunners are also one of three sides yet to concede in the final 15 minutes of games (along with Brighton and Southampton), netting five goals themselves."
The Betfair Bet:
Aston Villa v Manchester United
Ronaldo's favourite
The Opta Stat:
"Against no side has Man Utd's Cristiano Ronaldo scored more Premier League goals than he has against Aston Villa (8) - the Portuguese has been involved in 11 goals in his last eight starts against them in the competition (8 goals, 3 assists)."
The Betfair Bet:
Southampton v Newcastle United
Geordies enjoy time near the Shore
The Opta Stat:
"Southampton have won just one of their last eight Premier League games (D2 L5), while just one of their three Premier League victories so far this season has come on home soil (2-1 v Chelsea in August). Newcastle, meanwhile, have won their last three Premier League games, last winning four in a row in April. The Magpies have scored 4+ goals in three of their last six Premier League games, as many as in their previous 197 top-flight games combined."
The Betfair Bet:
West Ham United v Crystal Palace
Pride on the line in London
The Opta Stat:
"Both teams have scored in each of the last 10 Premier League meetings between West Ham and Crystal Palace, the longest current run in the competition. The team scoring first has gone on to win just one of these 10 matches (D5 L4), with West Ham winning 3-2 at Selhurst Park last season."
The Betfair Bet:
Tottenham Hotspur v Liverpool (Bet 5 Get 5 Fixture)
The Draw to come full circle
The Opta Stat:
"Just one of Tottenham's last 35 home league games has been drawn (W24 L10) - 2-2 against Liverpool in December last season. Spurs lost 2-1 against Newcastle in their last home league match, ending a run of eight consecutive victories at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. In fact, Spurs have won more points from losing positions than any other side in the Premier League this season (10), whilst since Antonio Conte took charge, only Liverpool themselves (24) have gained more points from behind than Spurs (21)."
The Betfair Bet:
Recommended bets
Opta Stats P/L
Recommended Bet Of The Week (since MD7)
Staked: 7 pts
Returned: 4.0 pts
P/L: -3.0 pts
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