Premier League Opta Stats MD19: 10 bets to back from 17/10 to a 14/1 Bet Builder
The Premier League returns following the FA Cup break and Alex Boyes has dug into the Opta Stats to pick out a bet from each of the 10 games this weekend. We had 6/1, 5/1 & 5/4 winners last week leading us to 5.25 pts of profit....
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MD9s 80% success the benchmark to aim for once more
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Three winners last week had us 5.25 pts in profit
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Rodrigo to start our weekend at 5/1
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A must-have Manchester derby Bet Builder pays 14/1
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Bowen's form means he's a healthy 3/1 to net v his favourites
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Finish with a North London derby double at 17/2
Aston Villa v Leeds United
Roddy, Roddy, Roddy, Oi, Oi, Oi
The Opta Stat:
"Rodrigo has scored 40% of Leeds' Premier League goals so far this season (10/25), with only Erling Haaland (47%) and Harry Kane (41%) netting a higher share for their side this term. Indeed, Rodrigo has had the eighth most number of shots in the PL this season, averaging 1.4 on target per 90."
The Betfair Bet:
Manchester United v Manchester City
Manchester is Blue
The Opta Stat:
"Manchester United have conceded 12 goals in their last three Premier League meetings with Man City, including six in their meeting at the Etihad Stadium in October. It's as many goals as they'd shipped against the Citizens in their 12 previous meetings combined." On the other hand, Marcus Rashford has scored in his last three Premier League appearances for Manchester United, and his last six in all competitions."
The Betfair Bet:
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Liverpool
Mitoma's the man
The Opta Stat:
"Among Brighton players to play at least 250 minutes in the Premier League this season, Kaoru Mitoma averages the most touches in the opposition box per 90 minutes (7.1) and most completed dribbles per 90 (2.2). He could also become the first Japanese player to score in three consecutive Premier League appearances."
The Betfair Bet:
Everton v Southampton
The losing side is bang in trouble
The Opta Stat:
"Everton have lost their last three home Premier League games. The Toffees haven't lost four in a row on home soil in the league since a run of seven defeats between April and September 1958. Southampton, meanwhile, have lost their last six Premier League games - they've never lost seven consecutive league games in their history."
The Betfair Bet
Nottingham Forest v Leicester City
Taiwo-to-go
The Opta Stat:
"All four of Taiwo Awoniyi's Premier League goals for Nottingham Forest this season have been the opening goal of the game, with three of those proving to be the only goal. The last player to score in four 1-0 wins in a single Premier League campaign was Salomon Rondon in 2015-16."
The Betfair Bet:
Wolverhampton Wanderers v West Ham United
Jarrod's omen right on time
The Opta Stat:
"West Ham's Jarrod Bowen has scored four goals in his last five Premier League games against Wolves, netting more goals against them than he has any other opponent in the competition."
The Betfair Bet:
Brentford v Bournemouth
Watch the Bees sting
The Opta Stat:
"Bournemouth have shipped 29 goals in their nine away Premier League matches this season, the joint-most after nine away games in a season (also Sheffield Wednesday in 1999-00 and Burnley in 2009-10)."
The Betfair Bet:
Chelsea v Crystal Palace
Blues to come good?
The Opta Stat:
"Chelsea are yet to concede a goal in the first half of a home Premier League game this season, the only side to do so. The Blues haven't conceded in the first half of any of their last nine league games at Stamford Bridge strethcing back to last season, their longest such run since March 2013 (10). Palace, meanwhile, have only conceded once before half-time in their last four Premier League games, going on to lose three of those."
The Betfair Bet:
Newcastle United v Fulham
Can't argue with the fortress of St James'
The Opta Stat:
"Newcastle are unbeaten in their last 13 Premier League games (W8 D5), only having one longer unbeaten run in the competition (14 between May and November 2011). Fulham's Aleksandar Mitrovic, meanwhile, has scored in his last three away Premier League appearances for Fulham and could become the first ever Cottagers player to score in four in a row."
The Betfair Bet:
Tottenham Hotspur v Arsenal
Three Lions the way to profit
The Opta Stat:
"Tottenham's Harry Kane - the highest scoring player in North London derby history with 14 goals - has scored in all but one of his eight Premier League home games against Arsenal (9 goals in total), failing only in July 2020. Meanwhile, since the start of last season, no player has been directly involved in more London debry goals in the Premier League than Arsenal's Bukayo Saka (11 - 4 goals, 7 assists)."
The Betfair Bet:
Recommended bets
Recommended Bet Of The Week (since MD7)
Staked: 13 pts
Returned: 19.9 pts
P/L: +6.9 pts
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Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.
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