Premier League Opta Stats MD35: Back 11/4 fouls tip and 8/1 North London Bet Builder
The midweek Premier League action has only wetted the appetite for what is set to be another huge weekend, and Alex Boyes is determined to propel the column back into profit once again...
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Mateta form not replicated in the prices
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Why can't Burnley cause an Old Trafford upset?
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2/13.00 looks a value bet at St James' Park
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Back 8/19.00 Spurs v Arsenal Bet Builder on Sunday
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Read all about Betfair's 90 Minute Payout here!
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Claim your completely free Acca or Bet Builder here
West Ham United v Liverpool
Klopp's side usually bounce back
The Opta Stat:
"Liverpool have both scored and conceded in their last seven Premier League away games against London sides, starting with a 2-1 win at West Ham almost a year ago today. The Reds have lost to Tottenham and Arsenal on the road this season, last losing three league games in the capital in a single campaign in 2014-15."
The Betfair Bet:
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Fulham v Crystal Palace
Prices yet to catch up with Mateta form
The Opta Stat:
"Since Oliver Glasner's first Premier League game in charge (24th February), only Cole Palmer (10) has scored more goals in the competition than Jean-Philippe Mateta (9). Indeed, he has had 13 shots on target across his last seven Premier League matches, and at least one in each. In fact, Mateta has had 2+ shots on target in four of those appearances, and 3+ in each of his last two."
The Betfair Bet:
Manchester United v Burnley
Burnley can go one better than Sheff Utd
The Opta Stat:
"Jacob Bruun Larsen has scored in four of Burnley's five Premier League wins this season, while the Clarets ended up drawing the only other game in which he scored. Burnley's only win in which the Dane didn't find the net was against Fulham in December. Indeed, Manchester United have lost four Premier League games in Saturday 3pm kick-offs this season, as many as they had in the previous seven campaigns combined, whilst Burnley have only lost one of their last seven Premier League games (W2 D4)."
The Betfair Bet:
Newcastle United v Sheffield United
Back goals once again at St James'
The Opta Stat:
"Newcastle beat Sheffield United 8-0 in the reverse fixture at Bramall Lane - the most goals they've ever scored against an opponent in a single Premier League campaign is 10, doing so against the Blades' rivals Sheffield Wednesday in 1999-00. Indeed, in each of Sheffield United's last 14 games in all competitions, eight have seen at least five goals scored, conceding 4+ in each of the last two."
The Betfair Bet:
Wolverhampton Wanderers v Luton Town
Luton provide us a great chance to profit on Ait-Nouri
The Opta Stat:
"Rayan Aït-Nouri has scored three goals in his last six starts in all competitions for Wolverhampton Wanderers - only one fewer than he netted in his first 105 games for the club (4). Indeed, he has managed seven shots on target across his last six starts, totalling 16 attempts across those games. Indeed, he had two shots in the first half last time out against West Ham before being substitued through injury.""
The Betfair Bet:
Everton v Brentford
Chance Reguilon over Mbeuemo for the price
The Opta Stat:
"Since his first start for Brentford in early February, Sergio Reguilon has registered more assists for Brentford (4) than any of his teammates, three of which have come in his last three games. Indeed, he averages more chances created per 90 than any other Brentford player (1.7) in the Premier League this season."
The Betfair Bet:
Aston Villa v Chelsea
Boost Villa by adding clean sheet
The Opta Stat:
"Aston Villa have never lost a Saturday night game in the Premier League (7pm or later), with each of their previous four coming in 2021 - 2-0 v Newcastle, 1-0 v Southampton, 0-0 v Brighton, 2-1 v Everton. Indeed, Having lost his first Premier League meeting with Chelsea in just his second ever game in charge in the competition in August 2018, Aston Villa boss Unai Emery has won each of his last three against the Blues without his side's conceding a single goal."
The Betfair Bet:
Bournemouth v Brighton & Hove Albion
Kelly is priced up as a CB, not a LB
The Opta Stat:
"Following Milos Kerkez's red card against Wolves, Lloyd Kelly is set to deputise at left-back for Bournemouth against Brighton, coming up against Simon Adingra. Indeed, Kelly has committed at least one foul in his last six appearances when starting at left-back, and at least twice in three of those."
The Betfair Bet:
Tottenham Hotspur v Arsenal
Back the captains to stand up tall
The Opta Stat:
"Tottenham have scored in each of their last 25 Premier League home games - it's their third longest such run in the competition, after two runs of 29 between January 2016/August 2017, and April 2011/October 2012. Indeed, captain Son Heung-min scored twice for Spurs in the reverse fixture against Arsenal in September, while only five players have scored more goals in the fixture's history in all competitions than Son (7). On the other hand, Arsenal captain Martin Ødegaard has been involved in six goals in his last six Premier League away games, scoring three and assisting three."
The Betfair Bet:
Nottingham Forest v Manchester City
City too short, but MGW can profit from clean sheet record
The Opta Stat:
"Nottingham Forest's Morgan Gibbs-White has been involved in four goals in his last three Premier League home games (2 goals, 2 assists). Indeed, since their return to the top-flight last season, Gibbs-White has been involved in 19 goals at the City Ground, at least eight more than any other player (8 goals, 11 assists)."
The Betfair Bet:
Opta Stats P/L 2023-24 -
(Single Recommended bet of the week)
Stake: 27pts
Return: 26.1
P/L: -0.9
ROI: -3.3%
(Overall Column)
Stake: 285pts
Return: 278.3
P/L: -6.7
ROI: -2%
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