Premier League 2023/24: How to trade the title race on the Betfair Exchange

• Profit from title race twist and turns

• Oppose the champions and still be a winner

• Read Betfair's new 90 minute payout offer here

Football presents many opportunities for bettors to profit throughout the season. At the start of a season, many people are focused on whether their team will be promoted or, perish the thought, relegated.

But my first focus, when it comes to trading on the Betfair Exchange, is the top of the table and the Premier League title race.

Did you know it's possible to bet against the winning team and still end up with a profitable position most years? It's all to do with the uncertainty around the title race.

Most champions struggle at some point

The basis on which we can do this trade is around the season-long struggle to win a title. In the Premier League, teams have to battle it out over 38 games, across 10 months, to get that title and to do it without any hiccups is an immense task.

As well as the league title, a team may also be chasing domestic and European honours. Throw in injuries to key players, and you can see that successfully navigating the season without error is a bit of an outlier.

That presents us with an opportunity to get a profitable trade.

Uncertainty present opportunity

Most title races don't tend to be like a competitive handicap in horse racing, where the winner is bunched in with a group of other runners near the finishing line. Instead, you get a couple of stand-out candidates.

This year we have Manchester City 1.875/6 to win the title, with a group of other teams like Arsenal 6.05/1, Liverpool 8.88/1 and Manchester United 12.523/2 nearby.

It's impossible at this stage to say exactly how the season will play out, so we have to rely on uncertainty to present an opportunity to us.

One of my favourite ways of trading uncertainty in a betting market is to lay a selection at a favourable price to a fixed liability.

On Betfair, you can click on the lay price in a market and then click the 'liability' option to nominate how much you are willing to lose if the trade fails. You can do a similar thing on Bet Angel with a couple of clicks.

This method limits your liability on a trade, but not the potential profit.

Suppose we lay a selection in a market at odds-on. To profit, all we need to do is lay another choice in the market at odds-on. This will ensure a profit on both selections and a massive profit on any of the other selections if an outsider gets into contention or wins.

If you stake to a fixed liability, you can continue this process across the market or more than once on a pair of selections to increase your profit throughout the season.

This works because each successful lay bet you place increases your profit without increasing your loss, as you have 'capped' that loss by using a fixed liability.

Of course, you should do that at the lowest lay price possible, as that will increase your profit with this strategy.

So that begs the question, what is a low price and how often does that occur?

Key statistics behind previous title races

The key to how this strategy works is the variability of how teams perform over a season.

Even in the world of money-dominated football, it's rare to see a team hit the front and stay there all season. Many factors, including a resurgent rival or injuries to key players, can ensure the season doesn't run smoothly.

If we look at last season, Man City won the title by five points after Arsenal faded late on. But the real story behind that battle is revealed when we look at how their odds for the title varied over the season.

Initially, 1.695/7 for the title, City's price headed into 1.201/5 as they started ominously. But the season turned at that point as Arsenal kept winning and putting pressure on the title favourites.

As Arsenal kept up the pressure, City's price eventually traded as high as 3.5551/20.

Whether you laid them at 1.695/7 or 1.201/5 you would have profited as Arsenal reached a low of 1.564/7 for the title. Remember that laying two odds-on shots with a fixed liability will be profitable.

Where you choose to lay the leader in the title race is a personal preference, but the lower the better.

In the 21/22 season Man City started at 1.758/11 before reaching a low of 1.031/33 before Liverpool mounted a title charge, reaching a low of 1.608/13 and pushing out Man City's odds to 2.506/4.

Similar things happen regularly in the title race. I could give specific details for each of the last five years, but that's not necessary when you know that in each year the eventual runner-up traded at decent odds-on for the title.

Title race trading summary

The title race is a battled out over 10 months and 38 matches, and the path to the title is rarely straightforward.

As the season ebbs and flows, the odds in the title race will fluctuate significantly as the teams come in and out of form for any number of reasons.

By laying at low odds at key points in the season, it's perfectly possible to profit regardless of who wins the title.

We benefit from the underlying uncertainty within the market and limit any loss by fixing our liability.

It's a strategy that has worked well for many years. While we can't guarantee a win every year. It's likely to work again this season.

Read Premier League Predictions 2023-24: Kevin Hatchard's best bets from 8/11 to 125/1

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