Opta Predicts Newcastle v Man Utd: Back Magpies' Murphy in Bet Builder at 34/1

• In-form Newcastle host goal-shy Man Utd in Premier League

• Magpies Murphy is backed to score or assist on Sunday

• Read the Opta preview and back the bet builder at 34/135.00

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This week's feature game in the Premier League should hopefully be an improvement on last Sunday's Manchester derby snorefest.

With in-form Newcastle United aiming to lock down a Champions League spot, we can hope for a bit more goalmouth action.  

Let's dive in to see where the value is.  

Newcastle are understandable favourites  

Without wanting to stray too heavily into football post-match interview parlance, Newcastle currently find themselves in a good moment.  

Their 70-year major domestic trophy drought is over after beating Liverpool in the EFL Cup final, while a 3-0 victory over Leicester City on Monday took them up to fifth in the Premier League.  

 That victory over Leicester saw Newcastle leapfrog Manchester City, while retaining their game in hand over Pep Guardiola's side. Given the news that the Premier League's top five are now guaranteed a spot in the Champions League, Newcastle could soon have some bigger fish to fry.  

According to the Opta supercomputer, Eddie Howe's side have a 70.1% chance of holding onto a place in the top five and getting back to Europe's top table. Compare that to Manchester United who, while having dispelled any lingering fears of relegation that crept in earlier in the season, have just a 3.6% chance of finishing in the top half.  

There is also an 75.6% likelihood that United either match or beat their worst top-flight finishing position in 25 years, when they were 13th at the end of the 1989-90 season. They also have a 96.4% chance of finishing in the bottom half for the first time since the same season.  

United come into this on the back of two draws. Last time out in the league, the goalless stalemate at home to rivals Manchester City means they have won just four of their last 15 league games, drawing four and losing seven. Their only victories in that time have come against each of the bottom three and Fulham.   

On the road, their form doesn't look any better than it does on home turf, with United having the seventh-worst away record in the Premier League this season. Ruben Amorim's side have lost six and drawn five of their 15 away games, taking just 17 points - for context, that is just four more than third-bottom Ipswich and one fewer than fourth-bottom Wolves.  

Since taking over at United in November, Amorim has averaged just 1.15 points per game in the Premier League, which is the lowest of any Red Devils boss in nearly 100 years. The only managers in the club's history to average fewer top-flight points per game - having taken 20 games or more and giving three points for a win - are AH Albut (0.73, 1892-1900) and Scott Duncan (1.00, 1932-37). 

So, it's fair to say that United aren't having a great time of it.  

It could be about to get a bit worse for them, given that Newcastle come into this having won 11 of their last 15 league games - no side has won more since the first game of that sequence - and four on the spin in all competitions.  

Included in that run of four straight victories was their 2-1 win over Liverpool in the EFL Cup final last month, while they have also won four of their last five meetings against the Red Devils - the same number of victories as in their previous 41 (D9 L28).  

Howe's side will become the fourth team this season to complete a Premier League double over United should they win on Sunday, having beaten them 2-0 at Old Trafford in December - the largest number of different teams to do so in a top-flight campaign since 1957-58 (also four).  

United have lost their last two away Premier League games against Newcastle, last losing on three consecutive league visits to St. James' Park between 1969 and 1970.  

As a result of the above, it is hard to go for anything other than a home win here at 4/61.67, while the -1 handicap also looks a value play at 17/102.70 given the form of both teams.  

Goal-shy United to struggle again  

Another plan of attack in this game is to look at the goals, or potential lack thereof, from one of the teams.  

United's goalless draw with Manchester City was a difficult watch, with the hosts registering just two shots on target and 0.91 xG. But more notably, that was only the Red Devil's 10th-lowest xG total of the season in the league, while it was the 11th time they have had three shots on target or fewer in a game.  

Ranking one place below the Manchester City draw in United's xG totals is their 2-0 defeat at home to Newcastle in late December, in which they generated just 0.8 xG.  

The derby draw means United come into this having failed to score in back-to-back league games, having drawn a blank in 12 of their 31 matches overall. Only Leicester (14) and Everton (13) have failed to score in more Premier League games this season, while this is the most times United have failed to score since the 1989-98 season (16).  

So, given that each of Newcastle's last eight victories over United have been to nil, the omens don't look great for the visitors.   

Newcastle have also conceded the fourth-lowest xGA (expected goals against) this season at 38.09 - only Liverpool, Arsenal and Fulham rank higher.  

BTTS: No, then, seems like a decent way to go and represents decent value at 5/42.25. For those looking for a straight single, rather than legs for a bet builder, Newcastle to win to nil also looks tasty at 21/103.10.  

Isak and Murphy good for goals 

We obviously cannot talk about Newcastle's threat going forward without talking about Alexander Isak.  

The Sweden international has netted 20 Premier League goals so far this season, behind only Mohamed Salah (27) and Erling Haaland (21). He is also the sixth-highest xG overperformer in the Premier League, with a goal-to-xG differential of 3.72.   

Ostensibly, that means he has scored more goals than would have been anticipated based on the chances he has had throughout the season and suggests he is one of the best finishers in the division. 

He also has a 26.67% shot conversion rate, which betters both Salah (25%) and Haaland (20.59%).  

Isak is coming into this on a hot streak as well, having scored six goals in his last eight matches for club and country. Understandably, though, he is the shortest price of any potential goalscorer at 5/61.84.  

In the hunt for a shorter-priced pick, Jacob Murphy could be worth your time. The winger scored his seventh and eighth goals of the season in all competitions against Leicester on Monday, registering 2.16 xG for the game - 1.01 more than any other league game this season.  

Given that his price to score anytime is 7/24.50, there is a chance we could be getting in here just as he comes into form and the market adjusts.   

Murphy also has 11 assists to go with his eight goals this season and has only once in his career registered more goal involvements (20 at Coventry City in 2015-16). At 9/52.80 for a goal or assist, he is a value pick.  

In terms of fouls or cards, Joelinton is worth backing against anyone on either side in a Build Ups bet. The Brazilian has committed the seventh-most fouls (53) in the Premier League this season, while he has picked up 11 yellow cards in all competitions including nine in the league.   

He has committed 15 fouls in his last eight league appearances, making at least one foul per game in each. He is 8/151.53 to commit at least two fouls on Sunday and 13/53.60 to pick up another card.

Now read more of this weekend's football previews and get the best bets