Opta Predicts Man Utd v Man City: Back Gvardiol goal in derby Bet Builder at 87/1

• Opta stats and Bet Builder for Sunday's Manchester derby

• City defender backed to strike as they make fast start

• Mazrouai cards bet also features in bet that comes to 87/188.00

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The Manchester derby is here and it looks set to be another cracker. Let's dive in and see where we can find some value.  

Man City have to be favoured  

Whisper this, but could Manchester City be back? Well, sort of. Not yes, but definitely not no. 

Pep Guardiola's side come into the derby on the back of a 2-0 victory at home to Leicester City in the Premier League in midweek. While not a spectacular result in isolation, it was Manchester City's fourth victory in their last six matches in all competitions.  

Their recent league form of just three victories in their last seven would also suggest an unspectacular level of performance, but dig a little deeper and there are reasons to get behind City at 11/102.11.  

City have suffered three defeats in that period of time, which are also their only three defeats in their last 13 league games. The losses have come against Nottingham Forest, Liverpool and Arsenal - the only teams above them in the table.  

Also included in that run of form are seven victories and three draws, while City initially went ahead in each of those games where the points were shared.  

Ostensibly, we are looking at a good football team in Manchester City. No longer are they the Guardiola winning machine that we had become accustomed to watching, but they are still better than most.  

That is not to say there are not still problems with this current guise of City though, and you can guarantee there will be significant surgery on the team over the course of the summer, with the departure of Kevin De Bruyne that was confirmed on Friday being just the start. From those issues, there are a few more angles that we can get stuck into.  

As discussed, Sunday's visitors are not at their rip-roaring levels of recent years and come into this with six away defeats in their last 11 Premier League away games (W3 D2), which is as many as they had in their previous 37 on the road (W26 D5 L6).  

While we are not plumping for them to get beat here, there is a question mark over the mentality of City's players. They have dropped 16 points from winning positions in the league this season, which is already their biggest total under Guardiola.  

Most recently, City led twice at home to Brighton and Hove Albion last month before drawing 2-2. It is also unlikely that anyone on either side of Manchester will have forgotten City's capitulation in the previous derby to lose 2-1, despite having led until the 88th minute.  

It is because of City's propensity to blow up that we can't discount Manchester United to win either half (with an eye on the second) at 1/12.00 or United draw no bet at 7/52.40.  

But having said all of that, and in a move motivated heavily by price, City's mark is currently at a level where it is hard to resist picking them to win. Manchester United's hot-and-cold ineptitude, meanwhile, makes them a risky proposition against any opposition, let alone a side chasing a top-four berth in the final stages of the campaign.  

Ruben Amorim's team have picked up just two points from their eight Premier League home games against teams starting the day in the top half. United's 1-0 defeat to Nottingham Forest in midweek was their 13th of the league season so far, which is already just one off their most in Premier League history - a record that was set only last season.  

Entertainment on the cards at Old Trafford  

We can reasonably expect Manchester City to make a fast start at Old Trafford, or at least a faster one than their hosts. While their ability to lose a lead has been highlighted, the existence of that statistic suggests that City have been consistently getting ahead in matches.   

They have scored the opening goal in 16 of their 30 Premier League matches. When combined with the fact that Manchester United have conceded the opening goal on 23 occasions in the Premier League - only Leicester (26) have done so more often - Manchester City to score the first goal at 8/111.73 looks solid. On a similar basis, City to win the first half looks massive at 8/52.60.  

But, Manchester City have conceded more goals (40) than any other team currently in the Premier League's top six. Their shot-to-goal conceded conversion rate is 13.89%, which is the third-worst in the league behind only Ipswich and Wolves.  

City have kept just three clean sheets in their last 19 matches in all competitions, against Tottenham, Ipswich and Leicester. Having seemingly wrestled the no.1 shirt back off Stefan Ortega, Ederson's save percentage (67.61%) is still the eighth-worst in the Premier League among players to have made 11 appearances or more.  

So, what all of that means is, goals in both halves at 1/21.50 and both teams to score at 1/21.50 both look fairly solid bets. Both teams to score twice, meanwhile, is one to keep an eye on at 3/14.00.  

United cards looks a strong stance  

Another pick worth looking at is Manchester United to pick up the most cards at 4/51.80. United have registered more tackles (639) than any other team in the Premier League so far this season, while City have given away the fewest fouls (205).  

Two names to keep an eye on for a card are Manuel Ugarte and Noussair Mazraoui. Ugarte has picked up 11 yellow cards in all competitions for his club side including eight in the league. The Uruguayan is 8/52.60 to pick up another booking on Sunday.  

Mazrouai, meanwhile, represents much better value at 16/54.20 for a card. The Morocco international has only been issued with four bookings in all competitions so far this season, but has attempted 88 tackles - at least 20 more than any player for either team - and committed 34 fouls, which ranks second among both squads.  

Wing-back Mazrouai is also 17/102.70 to commit two fouls or more and is worth taking on in a Build Ups bet against Casemiro, who is a shorter price for both fouls and cards.  

Elsewhere, and at risk of sounding like a broken record when previewing Manchester City, Josko Gvardiol again represents the best value in the goalscorer market at 10/111.00.  

The Croatian defender scored one of his five goals this season in December's reverse fixture and has generated the third-highest xG (4.16) among the Manchester City squad.   

Gvardiol has also had 87 touches in the opposition box so far this season, which is the fifth-most in the City squad behind Erling Haaland, Savinho, Bernardo Silva and Jeremy Doku - more than attacking threats Phil Foden, Jack Grealish and De Bruyne. The graphic above, meanwhile, shows that most of his touches this season have come in the opposition half.  

Given that United have also conceded 12 goals from set-pieces so far this season - the third-most in the Premier League - Gvardiol can be a menace again for them.  

It is also impossible to discount Bruno Fernandes - who netted at the Etihad Stadium - from any goalscorer conversation. Outside the injured Haaland, no player in either team has generated a higher xG this season than the Portuguese (8.67) or scored more goals (eight).  

But with seven bookings and three red cards so far for United, the 11/102.11 about him to score or be shown a card is the most appealing way of getting him onside. 

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