Opta Predicts Chelsea v Liverpool Tips: Back Mac Allister to strike in 68-1 Bet Builder on Sunday

• No let up from ruthless Reds after title win

• Salah backed for landmark goal involvement

• Opta's Bet Builder for Sunday can backed at 68/169.00

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• Check out Mike Norman's Build Ups tip further down this page

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So, it's official. Liverpool have done it and they are the 2024/25 Premier League champions. 

But the pertinent issue to consider from a punting perspective is how much having already achieved their ambition will affect their level of performance for the remainder of the season and, more specifically, on Sunday at Stamford Bridge. 

Let's get stuck in.  

Don't forget how good Liverpool are 

Fortunately, we can use semi-recent history as a yardstick to help us. The last time Liverpool won the Premier League title was in the 2019/20 season, and they did so with a record seven games remaining.  

Jurgen Klopp's side finished on 99 points in that season, with 86 of those coming in the 31 matches prior to confirming the championship. That works out at an average of 2.77 points per game, compared to the 1.85 points per game Liverpool managed after winning the title (13 points in seven games).  

Logically, a wind down in intensity makes sense, especially having achieved their ambition with seven games remaining five years ago. But it is important to note that Liverpool's final nine games of the 2019/20 season came after a COVID-enforced three-month break from competitive action, which also clearly impacted performance levels.  

Additionally, the points-per-game ratio that Liverpool accrued after the drop-off is still better than the 1.76 per game registered by Chelsea so far this season. With Arne Slot's Liverpool having taken an average of 2.41 points per game up to this point, a slight drop off would still see them performing better than most.  

To apply a little perspective, only three teams have won the Premier League title earlier than the four games to go with which Liverpool secured it this season. Those teams were Liverpool themselves five years ago alongside Manchester United in 2000/01 and Manchester City in 2017/18, both of whom did so with five games left on the clock.  

While all of the above aren't necessarily reasons in isolation for anyone to rush to back Liverpool here, they do give a little context into the extent of the champions' achievement.  

As an aside, history is also not on Chelsea's side having failed to win any of their last 10 meetings with Liverpool in all competitions, drawing seven and losing three. This will also be the club's seventh game against already-crowned champions in the Premier League - more than any other team in the competition - having failed to win six of those, losing three and drawing one.  

Similarly, historical results shouldn't necessarily be a reason to get behind a team on their own, but do give a window into the professionalism of previously crowned champions.  

But the big reason to get behind Liverpool on Sunday is the price. Arne Slot's side are comfortably the longest you will see them to win any league game this season at 11/53.20.  

While there is clearly a fair chunk of motivation bias baked into that price - Chelsea are currently in a battle for a top-five spot and lead sixth-placed Nottingham Forest on goal difference only - let's not forget how good Liverpool have been up to this point.  

They have won 25 of their 34 matches, losing just twice, and have earned 38 points in 17 away games - seven more than any other team.  

Expect more of the same from the Reds 

Liverpool lead the Premier League rankings for goals (80), shots (591), shots on targets (216) and expected goals (75.6).  

They have scored in 33 of their 34 Premier League games so far this season and, should they score in each of their four remaining matches, they will become just the fifth team in Premier League history to find the net in at least 37 different matches.  

While we can expect them to find the net here, it is curious that 19 of Liverpool's 25 victories have come by just one or two-goal margins. Of those victories, a league-high 10 have been by two goals - at least three more than any other team. At 8/19.00, Liverpool to win by exactly two goals looks like a good price.  

Despite coming into this with back-to-back victories, Chelsea have failed to get above 0.9 xG in either of their last two matches. 

 While Enzo Maresca's side did score at Anfield in October, they were deservedly beaten on the balance of play and also registered just 0.94 xG.   

Chelsea have also failed to score more than one goal in all but one of their seven league matches against teams currently in the Premier League's top six this season, failing to score at all on two occasions.  

As a result of the above, BTTS: No looks big at 17/102.70, while under 1.5 Chelsea goals at 1/12.00 is also of appeal. Given the above, a punt on the exact score being 2-0 to Liverpool is also worth thinking about at 14/115.00.  

Goalscorer value lies away from Palmer 

That Cole Palmer is priced up as the 7/52.40 favourite to score anytime, despite not having scored a goal in his last 18 matches in all competitions, 12 of which were in the Premier League, suggests there is value to be had elsewhere.  

Palmer's dry spell in front of goal has not been for the want of trying, having registered 41 shots in the 12 league games since last goal against Bournemouth in January. That's an average of 3.42 shots per game, though it has topped out at seven on two occasions. Unsurprisingly, he is just 3/101.30 to have three of more shots.  

But in terms of goals, there are a couple of avenues worth going down that would also work in a Build Ups bet.  

Alexis Mac Allister netted his fifth Premier League goal of the season in Liverpool's title-clinching 5-1 victory over Tottenham Hotspur last Sunday. The Argentina international has had nine shots on goal in his last four matches and ranks third in the Liverpool squad for goal-to-xG differential (2.17) behind only forwards Mohamed Salah and Cody Gakpo.   

Ostensibly, Mac Allister's finishing ability and goal tally has vastly outstripped what would have been expected of him based on the quality of chances he has had. As a result, the 7/18.00 about him to score here looks massive.  

Alternatively, getting 17/102.70 for Salah to score and 1/12.00 for him to score or assist feels like a cheat code. He has scored 28 league goals and registered 18 assists this season, topping the charts for both, and needs one more goal involvement to break the record shared by Andrew Cole (1993/94) and Alan Shearer (1994/95). 

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