Nottingham Forest v Man City: Back 13/1 feisty Forest fouls Bet Builder

• Back Man City to win at 13/102.30

• Back a big 13/114.00 Bet Builder on Forest fouls

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Nottingham Forest v Man City
Sunday 28 April, 16:30 kick-off
Live on Sky Sports

Forest fans have had all week to stew on the goings on at Goodison Park ahead of welcoming the champions to the City Ground - but they and the players need to be more focused on the job at hand and not let that residual anger get in the way.

They could use their perceived injustice inspire them, of course, and this is a rare occasion when you pity referee Simon Hooper who is probably in a lose-lose situation here under all kinds of pressure.

Forest, huge 7/18.00 outsiders for a shock upset win here, think Hooper should've sent off James Maddison for a gut punch on Ryan Yates in their defeat at Spurs, and the crowd will be on his back from the start.

Every decision will be scrutinised and, despite Hooper giving just two penalties in 21 games this season, football has a habit of throwing up storylines so 5/42.25 on a penalty being awarded might be a decent shout.

Forest got a 1-1 draw here last season and after a week to prepare they'll have the legs to make it competitive, but it's hard to go against Man City - even if playing on Thursday means they may not be able to run away with it.

But they'll have around 70% possession again, as they did last season, and for teams like Forest it means relying on making the most of your minimal chances and hoping City fluff their lines - which doesn't happen too often.

Fouls the way forward for fired-up Forest

There's got to be an angle in discipline in this game hasn't there? The atmosphere will be borderline ferral and Forest could well overstep the mark in desperation.

Simon Hooper may need danger money to step out into the middle, and I think he'll try and keep his cards in his pocket as much as possible - I don't think an early yellow to settle things down will work on this occasion.

But he'll still blow up for fouls, and although City's numbers will likely go up, they'll have so much of the ball you have to stick with Forest - with 7/52.40 on 13+ fouls for the hosts the preferred bet.

That bet has landed in four of their last seven (with another game hitting 12), and three of their last five at home, while they gave away 17 at the Etihad.

Back big 13/1 Bet Builder

We'll stick with fouls, but who is doing them can provide us with a decent return with a Bet Builder foul play special.

Defender Murillo has given away a foul in each of his last six games, four of those being multiple foul games - and that's not the type of form you want coming in against City.

Murillo is 21/103.10 for 2+ fouls against City and looks a decent bet at that.

Full-backs are always tested against City so Neco Williams joins Murillo in the 2+ fouls club at 7/42.75. He's six of nine for 2+ fouls for club and country.

Morgan Gibbs-White we're going to back to give away a foul and be fouled himself - as he's actually had more fouls on him (52) than given against him (34) this season.

He's 4/91.44 to give a foul away and 3/101.30 to get fouled himself - both of which give us a more than healthy Forest four-fold totalling around 13/114.00.

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