Nottingham Forest v Aston Villa: Take 7/2 for a one goal Villa win

• Villa are back on the horse with three wins

• Strong Forest defence points to small-margin Villa win

• Duran's first goalscorer price jumps out

• Place £10 bet on any sport on the Betfair Exchange to start your Free Bet Streak

• Get an extra boost on your Premier League Bet Builders this Christmas with Betfair

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Nottingham Forest v Aston Villa
Saturday 14 December, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports

No CL hangover for Villa - they are back in the groove

Taking Aston Villa on here could draw a few people in based on their record after a Champions League night.

They've not won any of their last four games following a midweek European fixture which is always a huge occasion for the club. But I'd be quite forgiving of that statistic based on the opposition.

Villa have played Liverpool and Chelsea away, drawn 1-1 with Bournemouth, when they were the better team by miles, and were dragged down by a dour Manchester United in a 0-0 at Villa Park.

Following comfortable victories over Brentford and Southampton, Tuesday's win over RB Leipzig made it three on the spin for Unai Emery's men in all competitions after a recent wobble.

The spark that led Emery's team to glory last season in the Premier League does seem to be returning. Morgan Rogers has overcome a slight dip in form and John McGinn is relishing his more attack-minded role playing off the central striker.

Villa are a bet here on the Betfair Sportsbook but not in the traditional markets. I'm heading for the "Winning Margin" market and taking the 7/24.50 on Villa to win by one goal, something that has happened in seven of their 12 wins this season across all competitions.

Last season, between November and January, all of Villa's wins were achieved by a one-goal margin. Emery is happy to sit on a lead when necessary and, when you throw in how secure Forest are as a defensive unit, it makes the 7/24.50 very appealing.

This Forest team have conceded just 18 Premier League goals this season - only Liverpool and Arsenal have conceded fewer. And that is backed up by the performance data, with Forest only shipping 22 big chances to their opposition - the joint-fewest along with Arsenal. A low scoring Villa win is overpriced.

Unleash maverick striker Duran

It's time for Emery to give Jhon Duran a run of games as the main man in the Premier League.

Villa's maverick striker has scored in each of his last four starts across all competitions, including the winner against Southampton last weekend. The super-sub tag is starting to look misplaced, considering he's not scored in his last nine appearances off the bench.

Ollie Watkins has not been firing anywhere near his best since the summer, scoring just two goals in his last 11 appearances and missing 15 big chances in the Premier League this season. No player has missed more and he was especially wasteful against Saints last weekend, not only with his finishing but with his final pass, too.

The England forward may just need a spell on the sidelines to reinvigorate him after a stamina sapping 18 months of action. When you have a goalscorer of the ilk and potential of Duran waiting in the wings, it shouldn't be a difficult decision for Emery, although he clearly doesn't fully trust the young Colombian.

If he does get the nod, the 13/27.50 first goalscorer price on Duran has big potential.

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