Newcastle v Manchester City: 11/4 Draw stands out at St James' Park

• Newcastle continue to be a tough nut to crack at home

• Manchester City's away form is nothing special this season

• The draw looks the value play at 11/43.75
  

• Jeremy Doku can make another attacking contribution

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Newcastle v Man City
Saturday, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event & Sky Sports Premier League

Magpies' H-2-H record better than on first glance

Newcastle fans will be acutely aware of their history in the fixture while neutrals would probably say thatg Manchester City have had the better of it.

That latter assessment is actually way off the mark as the stats are astonishing. In the last 35 Premier League meetings between the pair, Newcastle have managed a single win and lost 28 of the other 34.

It's pretty obvious how to play this one then. Or is it?

Two of the last three top-flight meetings at St James' Park have ended in draws - 1-1 last season and 3-3 in 2022/23 while in early 2024, Newcastle were 2-1 up with 16 minutes left before Oscar Bobb's 90th-minute goal completed a dramatic City fightback and a 3-2 win for the visitors.

Add in a 1-0 home victory for Newcastle in the Carabao Cup in 2023, courtesy of an Alexander Isak winner, and suddenly that Opta stat looks a little misleading. View them from a pro-Newcastle perspective and Eddie Howe's side have only lost one of their last four fixtures at home to City.

City unconvincing on the road

London trio Arsenal, Tottenham and Chelsea all have strong away records this season but City are in the vast majority of sides who have struggled on their travels.

Newcastle are one of them having taken just three points out of 18 away from home while Liverpool have just six points from their six road matches.

City's aren't much better. They've gone into battle five times on the road, won two, drawn one and lost two. Burnley have scored more away goals than Pep Guardiola's side.

The two defeats came at Brighton and Aston Villa (one home loss between them) so City are struggling against the better home teams this season.

While the 3-0 victory over Liverpool at the Etihad last time seemed to establish Pep's side as Arsenal's most likely challengers, City's away form will have to improve if they're to keep the pressure on.

Going into the weekend, the Gunners were four points clear. City won't want that to grow.

Hosts can hold odds-on City

Despite the iffy away record this season and their dominance at St James' Park waning, City are still odds-on at 19/201.95 to return south with all three points. Newcastle are 11/43.75 while The Draw is also 11/43.75.

If widening the lens on Newcastle's home record, it's stronger than the bare Premier League table suggests.

Their only losses so far have been 2-1 to Barcelona, 2-1 to Arsenal and 3-2 to Liverpool. Against the Gunners they were ahead with six minutes to play while against Arne Slot's champions the Magpies were stunned in injury-time after heroically battling back from 2-0 down to 2-2 when playing with 10 men.

As well as the Premier League victories over Wolves, Nottingham Forest and Fulham, also at St James' this season you'll find League Cup successes over Bradford and Tottenham and Champions League victories against Benfica and Athletic Bilbao.

There's certainly enough there to suggest they can give City a real run and the 11/43.75 Draw looks worth a play.

Doku can shine again 

After home games featuring five goals against Liverpool and three each in the matches involving Barcelona and Arsenal, there should be scope for more here.

Erling Haaland now has an absurd 32 goals in 20 games for club and country this season following a brace in Norway's 4-1 romp against Italy.

He's scored in every away game bar the 1-0 loss to Aston Villa and is 4/51.80 to net another here. That certainly seems fair.

But the one I'll focus on is another player in sizzling form: Jerermy Doku.

The Belgian speedster has four goals and two assists in his last six games for club and country and was brilliant against Liverpool.

Lack of final product has always been the big criticism aimed at him but now he's delivering.

Back Doku To Score Or Assist at 17/102.70.

For those looking for a Bet Builder, combining Doku Score/Assist with The Draw pays just north of 10/111.00.

Now read Lewis Jones on why now is the time to lay Arsenal for the title