Newcastle v Chelsea: Blues can stop the rot with a draw

• Hosts kick off in top 3 for first time since 2011
• Chelsea's recent demise is exaggerated
• Dave likes the Draw and a 6.6 Bet Builder
• Sign up for our World Cup Newsletter here

Magpies flying high

Everything seems to be going right for Newcastle at the moment.

"EIEIEIO, up the Premi-ah League we go," has been the refrain from the Toon Army over the last few months and six wins and a draw in their last seven top-flight outings have taken them to the giddy heights of third place.

Newcastle have scored four or more goals in four of those wins while they also boast the joint-best defensive record in the Premier League having conceded just 11 goals in 14 games.

They're even winning penalty shootouts. In the Steve Bruce era the Magpies would probably have made a hash of their spot-kicks against Crystal Palace in the third round of the Carabao Cup on Wednesday but the script just seems different under Eddie Howe.

Newcastle haven't started a Premier League game in a top three position for 11 years while this is the first time since 2012 that they'll go into a match against Chelsea sitting above them in the table.

These are heady times at St James' Park and with lots more Saudi riches to spend in January, who knows where they could end the season? Many may be happy to snap up the exchange price of 3.1511/5 for a Top 4 finish.

Chelsea wobbling again

In contrast to Newcastle, Chelsea's season is something of a rollercoaster and it's currently hurtling downwards.

Thomas Tuchel was given the axe after a mixed bag of a start and Graham Potter looked to be sailing them into much calmer waters after arriving from Brighton.

Potter racked up six wins and three draws in his first nine matches in all competitions but rumblings among the supporters that not everything was right and his team set-ups looked strange are getting louder.

A 4-1 defeat on his return to Brighton was the first setback and a home loss to Arsenal, followed by a 2-0 Carabao Cup defeat to Manchester City, have made it three defeats in the last four matches for the Blues.

In the Premier League they ended last weekend in seventh place, just two points above Liverpool, who are supposed to be experiencing a disastrous start.

Should Chelsea lose here - this is their final match until December 27 as the Premier League breaks for the World Cup - Blues fans will have plenty of time to moan and shout that Potter isn't the right man.

Hosts not fully convincing at home

League position, home advantage and current form means Newcastle are the clear favourites to take all three points at 2.427/5.

Chelsea are 3.211/5 to return south with a much-needed win while The Draw is 3.613/5.

It's easy to jump into the Magpies given the two sides' contrasting fortunes but talk of Chelsea's demise may be exaggerated.

And that means I'm going to play the draw.

For starters, Newcastle's home form isn't flawless and, to pick one point of reference, they've only managed the same number of home wins this season as Aston Villa.

True, they're unbeaten at St James' but the Magpies couldn't put away Crystal Palace and Bournemouth while Palace also forced penalties there in midweek after a goalless 90 minutes in the Carabao Cup.

Perhaps head-to-head form isn't as relevant these days, given that this is a vastly improved iteration of Newcastle. But Chelsea have won three of their last four Premier League games at St James' Park and won seven of the last eight encounters against Newcastle.

In other words, a lot of their players are used to going there and winning.

Chelsea certainly aren't doing enough to suggest they can win but a draw seems within their capabilities and it's a bigger price than the away victory.

Guimaraes a play on the Bet Builder

Looking at the goalscorer markets, Miguel Almiron is enjoying an incredible hotstreak in front of goal and his strike at Southampton last weekend made it seven in his last seven Premier League appearances.

Almiron has netted in each of his last four and for those who think it can't last, let's recall that teammate Joe Willock scored in seven straight Premier League matches at the end of the 2020-21 campaign.

Almiron is 10/3 to extend his sequence and net anytime.

Chelsea striker Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has scored six goals in nine appearances against Newcastle and also had three assists in that run.

But like his team, he's stalled after scoring against Crystal Palace and in home and away Champions League games against AC Milan.

It's similar with Raheem Sterling. He's registered five times in his last six matches versus Newcastle but his current numbers show just one goal in his last 11 for Chelsea.

All the above are options but the one I'll go with is Bruno Guimaraes.

The midfielder has just been named in Brazil's World Cup squad and rightfully so after an excellent campaign so far with Newcastle.

Over last season and this, Guimaraes has scored five times in his last 10 home games so seems a fair price at 4/1 to grab another.

I think both teams will find the net on Saturday - BTTS 'Yes' is 1.824/5 - so I'll head to the Bet Builder and back Guimaraes to score anytime and Both teams to Score at 6.611/2.

Talking of which, this is a "Bet 5 Get 5" game. That means punters get a £5 free bet if they place a £5 bet on Bet Builders.

Others to consider could be Almiron to score in a draw at 17.016/1 and Guimaraes to score in a draw at just under 21.020/1.

Opta stat

Chelsea have lost their last two Premier League games, as many as they had in their previous 15 (W8 D5). The Blues haven't lost three consecutive league games since November 2015, under José Mourinho.

Dave's P/L for the 2022/23 season

Staked: 14.20pts
Returned: 11.05pts
P/L: -3.15pts

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