Newcastle United v Aston Villa: Goals on the cards

• Both Newcastle and Aston Villa having great seasons

• Goals should flow especially with both full of confidence

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Newcastle United v Aston Villa
Sunday January 25, 14:00
Live on Sky Sports

The tale of the tape

It's been a great season so far for these two sides as eighth-place Newcastle United host third-place Aston Villa. Such is the congestion in the Premier League, Newcastle are just three points off fourth-place Liverpool, while Villa are only seven points behind league leaders Arsenal.

Both are through to the fourth round of the FA Cup where they coincidentally meet at Villa Park in a few weeks, while Newcastle are still in with a chance in the EFL Cup semi-final, despite trailing 2-0, as they face an out-of-form Man City in the second leg.

In Europe, the Toon Army are well placed in seventh in the Champions League, while Villa, fresh off the back of victory in Fenerbahce, are joint top of the Europa League, both with one round to go.

Newcastle v Aston Villa match odds is one to swerve

With the two sides having great seasons, what can we expect here? I have to say I'm a little surprised Newcastle are only 1/12.00 to win. Pre-season Villa were 4/15.00 to finish in the top four and now they're just 1/21.50 to show how well they're doing. Only Arsenal have won more points (21) than the Villains have away from home in the Premier League this season (18) so this won't be straight forward for Newcastle.

Despite Newcastle picking up the sixth most points at home, the likes of Sunderland and Brentford have better records, and Eddie Howe's men actually possess the joint fourth worst defensive record in terms of goals conceded. Bruno Guimaraes is also an injury doubt and he's Newcastle's top scorer in the league, also boasting the joint-most assists.

The home side will need to be aware of England man Morgan Rogers who has five goals in his last nine games, with 15 shots alone in his last five league games. However, I don't want to back a Villa side at 5/23.50 that are the biggest overachievers in the league this season based on expected points.

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Over/unders - a match made in heaven for goals

Instead the obvious bet for me here is to back goals. Eleven of Newcastle's last 15 league games have seen over 2.5 goals (73%) and looking further back, it's 21 of their last 30 matches across all competitions that have delivered winners (72%).

For Aston Villa, 12 of their last 16 games in all competitions have seen three or more goals (75%). Looking at these two sides home and away splits also makes for great reading, as 73% of Newcastle's home games in the league have been winners - no side has a better strike rate at home - and for Villa six of their last eight away league matches have seen Over 2.5 goals.

This looks a match made in heaven for goals. The line is set at 2.75 goals, so by backing overs we'll still see half our bet win if there is three goals and a full payout if there is four or more.

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