Manchester United v Brighton: Seagulls can clip ten Hag's wings

Kevin Hatchard
06 August 2022
3 min read

Erik ten Hag has the job of rebuilding Manchester United

Manchester United vs Brighton and Hove Albion
Sun 7 Aug, 14:00

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Manchester United hope to begin the Erik ten Hag era with a win over Brighton, but Kevin Hatchard thinks the visitors will be awkward opponents...

"Brighton have only lost four of their last 32 away matches in the Premier League by more than a goal." Back Brighton +1.0 on the Asian Handicap at 1.824/5

Ten Hag already dealing with familiar drama

Controversy about a player who doesn't want to come, and controversy about a player who doesn't want to stay. That's what new Manchester United coach Erik ten Hag is already having to deal with as he attempts to alter the dynamic at Old Trafford.

The protracted and complicated pursuit of Barcelona midfielder Frenkie de Jong has added unwanted uncertainty to pre-season preparations, as has Cristiano Ronaldo's push to leave in search of Champions League football. Ronaldo is a living legend of the sport, but one wonders whether retaining him would do more harm than good. The 37-year-old isn't a natural fit for ten Hag's pressing scheme, and if he stays, the narrative at the club will constantly be driven by whether he plays or not.

It's not all bad, though. United have done some encouraging business in the window so far, bringing in rampaging left-back Tyrell Malacia, aggressive if diminutive centre-back Lisandro Martinez and proven Premier League performer Christian Eriksen.

It's also worth remembering that despite the complete debacle that was last season, United actually do have some very good players. Harry Maguire has been vilified, but his performances for England show what he can do when he has a midfield screen (which United still haven't bought for him), Jadon Sancho still has enormous potential, and with the right structure Bruno Fernandes can be a consistent match-winner from midfield.

Anthony Martial looked sharp in pre-season, but will miss this game with injury, which increases the chances of Ronaldo leading the line. Sancho and Luke Shaw have recovered from illness, and are fit to start.

Praise for Potter as Brighton march on

It tells you a lot about the job Graham Potter has done at Brighton that if Gareth Southgate ever left the England job, the erudite and thoughtful Seagulls boss would surely be high on the FA's list of replacements. Brighton spent the first four seasons of their Premier League stint looking nervously at the dropzone, but last term they finished ninth, 16 points clear of the bottom three.

Brighton are defensively solid, but goalscoring remains a big issue. They have netted just 82 goals across the last two seasons, and in that time, the Infogol Expected Goals data shows they have massively underperformed in front of goal in terms of converting chances. It's tempting to blame a striker like Neal Maupay, but the Frenchman scored eight PL goals from an xG of 8.55 last term, so the issue is far more broad.

However, where Brighton do consistently hit the target is in recruitment and sales. Flipping the excellent Marc Cucurella to Chelsea for a startling profit shows what Brighton are all about, and the combined sales of the Spaniard and Ben White to Arsenal last summer have generated more cash than it cost to build the Amex Stadium.

This is a club on a sound financial footing, which must be a relief to fans who remember the stresses and strains of the past.

Polish international Jakub Moder is still out with a long-term knee problem, but Alexis Mac Allister should be fit after recovering from a groin injury.

Uncertainty means United are just too short

United are 1.635/8 to win ten Hag's opening Premier League game, and that feels too short given the Red Devils' awful form last season, and the amount of questions they still have to answer. I believe in time that ten Hag will succeed (I've tipped United to finish fifth in my season preview), but it might take a while to really get his players to understand what he wants from them, as there are lots of complex requirements.

Manchester United

Brighton and Hove Albion

Manchester United 1 2 Brighton and Hove Albion
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Brighton and Hove Albion 4 0 Manchester United
Manchester United 3 0 Brentford
Manchester United 1 1 Chelsea
Arsenal 3 1 Manchester United

Manchester United 1 2 Brighton and Hove Albion
Brighton and Hove Albion 3 1 West Ham United
Leeds United 1 1 Brighton and Hove Albion
Brighton and Hove Albion 4 0 Manchester United
Wolverhampton Wanderers 0 3 Brighton and Hove Albion
Brighton and Hove Albion 2 2 Southampton

Manchester United vs Brighton and Hove Albion Sunday 07 August, 14:00

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Brighton lost just four Premier League away games last season, drew at Liverpool and Chelsea and won at Arsenal and Spurs. They also started last season strongly, winning four of their first five league games. They have only lost four of their last 32 away matches in the top flight by a multiple-goal margin, so I'm happy to back them +1.0 on the Asian Handicap here at 1.824/5. We only lose the bet if United win the match by two goals or more.

Let Leandro lead the way

Brighton's Leandro Trossard looked razor-sharp in the 5-1 friendly win over Espanyol, as the Belgian was involved in four of the five goals, scoring a hat-trick and providing an assist. He scored eight Premier League goals and provided three assists last season, and if Brighton are to do well here, I'd expect him to play a significant role.

Trossard is 4.03/1 to score or assist on the Sportsbook, but you can boost that price to 4.64 with a Bet Builder if you also throw in Both Teams To Score. It's worth noting that Betfair is offering a £5 free bet if you stake a £5 Bet Builder on this game.

Bet 5 Get 5 on Bet Builders

You can get a £5 Free Bet when you place a £5 Bet Builder on selected Football matches this season. Keep an eye on the Betfair site for more info. T&Cs apply.