Manchester United v Brentford: Home shots on target continue to be worth backing

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Monday, 20:00
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European places up for grabs

It's all about strengthening European qualification positions when Manchester United host Brentford on the Monday Night Football show with Champions League and Europa League spots up for grabs.

United look almost certain to qualify for next season's Champions League courtesy of a top five finish in this season's Premier League and a win over Brentford will all but confirm that qualification.

However, the Bees have European aspirations of their own and can move up to sixth in the table - good enough for at least a place in next season's Europa League - with a win at Old Trafford while a draw will see them conclude Matchday 34 seventh in the table.

United have been in strong form under interim boss Michael Carrick, winning eight and losing just two of their 12 games under his management, though that form looks less impressive when you consider they've won just two of their last five (W2-D1-L2).

Brentford have become the draw specialists in recent months. Keith Andrews' men are on a remarkable run of five consecutive Premier League draws with three of those stalemates ending goalless, which is quite unusual for the entertaining Bees.

United deserving favs but caution advised

Manchester United are the obvious, and deserving favourites in the Match Odds market, available to back at 17/201.85 to pick up all three points with Brentford available at 31/104.10 and the Draw trading at 29/103.90.

It's a market that I'm more than happy to swerve given that United failed to win as favourites in recent months against the likes of West Ham, Bournemouth, and most recently, at home to Leeds, while they also lost to lowly Newcastle.

They are by far the most likely winners, but the general feeling is that United are at their very best when facing one of the Premier League's bigger clubs, with recent wins over Arsenal, Manchester City, Aston Villa and Chelsea backing up that theory.

I was also very keen on a home win when Carrick's men hosted Leeds a fortnight ago, only for them to put in a poor performance and lose the game 2-1. So it's a case of once bitten twice shy when it comes to backing United here.

If you are interested in backing a home win then it's worth pointing out that although Brentford have won the two most recent encounters between the two clubs, those wins were at the Gtech Community Stadium with United winning all four clashes at Old Trafford since the Bees were promoted.

No need to change tack

Although United let me down when I fancied them to beat Leeds recently I did get a lot right in that preview including landing my best bet of the game, a 13/53.60 shots on target bet, and I see no reason to divert away from that wager.

In all six of Man United's home games under Carrick they've registered at least six shots on target and they're averaging over eight on target per game. Despite a poor performance at home to Leeds the Red Devils still managed nine shots on target.

And if we look at recent clashes between these two teams, which tend to be highly entertaining, United had six shots on target when losing at the Gtech earlier this season, 11 shots on target when winning 2-1 last season and eight shots on target when beating Brentford 2-1 the season before.

So when you consider that United have averaged 9.5 shots on target in their last two home games against the Bees, and that they're averaging over eight shots on target per game under Carrick at Old Trafford, then I'm delighted to see them available to back again at 13/53.60 to have eight or more shots on target on Monday night.

That will undoubtedly be my best bet of the game.

It's Bruno again in a more cautious approach

If you want to play it more cautious, then backing United to have six or more shots on target - something they've done in every game under Carrick on home soil - can be backed at 8/111.73 and I think that is very fair.

But with that, consider adding a Bruno Fernandes assist to a Bet Builder that pays out at just shy of 5/23.50.

Fernandes continues to be in red hot form and he is chasing down the record of having most assists in a Premier League season (record is 20, he has 18). He's registered six assists in his last six appearances and to my eye there was definitely an element of him trying to assist - rather than score - in United's 1-0 win at Chelsea last time.

English Premier League - Top 5 Assists

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Unfortunately the Sportsbook has latched on and he's just 11/82.38 to register an assist on Monday night, but getting close to 5/23.50 when adding the six shots on target element is well worth backing.

Put simply, it's a bet that is paying out with increasing regularity (successful in five of United's last six home games) and should be backed until it hits a barren spell.

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