Manchester United v Aston Villa: Back Emery's Lions to come back roaring

• Villa just a point off top spot

• United have lost four of last seven at home in PL

• Villa can be backed with insurance

• Watkins shot on target a feature of Bet Builder

Manchester United v Aston Villa
Tuesday 26 December, 20:00
Live on Amazon Prime

Stratford surrender felt like new low

In a season of hugely disappointing performances, Manchester United's limp loss at West Ham last time out felt like a low point. The Red Devils played okay in the first half, but offered nothing in the second as they were swept aside. Erik ten Hag's side are out of Europe, out of the League Cup and have lost eight of their 18 Premier League matches. If you follow understat.com's Expected Points model, you would see that United are seventh from bottom, just seven points above the dropzone.

A major change off the field may bring a change on it, but it will take some time. Sir Jim Ratcliffe has purchased a quarter of the club's shares, and is expected to be given control over the day-to-day running of the football operation. This seems like a win-win for the Glazers - they pass some of the pressure onto INEOS and Ratcliffe, they retain the majority of the shares, and if things go well they will benefit financially.

That said, the new arrivals have a mountain of tasks in the in tray. A demoralised, injury-hit and out of form squad is delivering poor display after poor display, there are too many outdated elements when it comes to the club's infrastructure, and the sharp decline in results has eroded the authority of manager ten Hag.

The injury crisis is a crippling one. Harry Maguire, Tyrell Malacia, Casemiro, Lisandro Martinez, Victor Lindelof and Mason Mount are all still sidelined. Diogo Dalot is back after suspension, but it remains unclear whether Raphael Varane or Anthony Martial will be fully fit.

Despite mishap with Blades, Villa still in healthy position

While Manchester United have lurched from crisis to crisis since Sir Alex Ferguson left, Aston Villa might finally have hit upon the magic formula. Yes, star coach Unai Emery is being given a lot of influence and power, but he has delegated some of that to trusted colleagues like Monchi and Damian Vidagany. With enthusiastic, supportive owners and the funds to make big splashes in the transfer market when possible (the acquisition of Moussa Diaby is a great example of Villa's agility and readiness when necessary), there are reasons to be cheerful for Villa fans.

Villa had their record-breaking run of Premier League home wins ended recently by Sheffield United, but they still had the tenacity to salvage a 1-1 draw, as Nicolo Zaniolo headed home a last-gasp leveller. Despite that slip, Emery's men are just a point off top spot, and perhaps more relevant is the fact they are ten points ahead of Newcastle and 11 clear of Manchester United, direct rivals in the race for European spots. They have won their Europa Conference League group, and are clear favourites to win that competition, not least because of Emery's European pedigree.

Villa are averaging better than two goals per game in the Premier League, and across their last six Premier League away matches they have managed victories at Chelsea, Tottenham and Brentford. They have only failed to score twice on the road in the top flight this term. Even though they have historically struggled against Manchester United (our friends at Opta tell us they have lost 38 of the clubs' 56 Premier League clashes), they have won two of the last four top-flight meetings.

Boubacar Kamara is suspended, while centre-back Pau Torres is a fitness doubt. Emi Buendia and Tyrone Mings are long-term absentees.

Villa are rightful favourites

It shows how things have changed for these two sides in recent months that Villa's favouritism in the Match Odds market seems perfectly reasonable. United have lost four of their last seven home games in the Premier League, and they haven't even scored in any of their last four competitive matches. Villa were poor against Sheffield United, but that display might give them the wake-up call they need ahead of this clash, and their form is miles ahead of their opponent's.

I'll back Villa Draw No Bet on the Betfair Exchange at 1.9520/21.

Dalot to draw attention

Villa attack at speed and carry a threat out wide, and that could spell danger for the often aggressive and impetuous Manchester United defender Diogo Dalot. The Portuguese full-back has committed at least one foul in 11 of his 16 Premier League appearances, so I'll back him to be whistled at least once here. I'll give Villa a two-goal start on the Handicap, and I'll back Ollie Watkins to have at least one shot on target. The England striker has hit the target at least once in his last 14 Premier League appearances.

That gives us a combined price on the Bet Builder of 2.285/4.

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