Man Utd v Nottingham Forest: Back goals as Fernandes chases assist record

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Both managers in-form

With Manchester United having secured Champions League qualification and Nottingham Forest seven points clear of the relegation zone with two games to go, it could be an open game in the final match at Old Trafford this season.

Red Devils boss Michael Carrick has done a fantastic job since he was appointed in mid-January, taking the second most points of any club in the Premier League across his 15 games in charge. He boasts a record of 10 wins, three draws and two defeats.

Forest boss Vitor Pereira has also done a great job in his 10 games since arriving half-way through February. He's guided the Tricky Trees to four wins, four draws and just two defeats.

With Carrick winning seven of his eight games in charge at Old Trafford, it's no surprise to see the home side odds-on at 1.664/6. However, under Pereira, Forest are unbeaten in their last eight league games, including impressive wins at Chelsea, Sunderland and Tottenham, as well as twice coming from behind to draw at Manchester City.

Fellow relegation rivals Leeds who sit just one point above Forest, came to Old Trafford and caused an upset when winning 2-1, so I wouldn't want to be backing United at the odds.

Goals on the agenda

A key theme for both sides under their current managers has been goals. Michael Carrick's 15 Premier League games in-charge have seen 43 goals at an average of 2.87 per-game, while Vitor Pereira's 10 league games at the helm have yielded 29 goals at an average of 2.90 per-game.

United have scored the fourth most since Carrick was appointed with 27. Only Man City (21) have scored more goals than Nottingham Forest's 20 since Vitor Pereira's arrival.

With both attacks firing, goals are on the cards. And I'm surprised the line is set at 2.75 especially given the tendency for an increase in goals in the final games of the season. We can back Over 2.75 goals at 1.824/5 where three or more goals will see us profit.

Both teams to score at 1.748/11 is also attractive given we technically only need two goals rather than three to profit and the fact no side in the league has a better strike rate for winners in this market than Utd with 72%. However, no side in the league has more injury concerns than Forest's 10 coming into this weekend, including top scorer Morgan Gibbs-White, so I'd prefer not to have to rely on both teams definitely contributing. Over 2.5 goals has landed in four of the last five league meetings.

Bruno chasing the record

Bruno Fernandes has 19 league assists this season and is just one short of the all-time record in a single Premier League campaign of 20. His pursuit of the record is a big narrative in United games at the moment. He looks to be going all out to break it by trying to set up team-mates for goalscoring opportunities rather than taking on the shot himself when in dangerous areas. However, this is understandably factored into the odds with him just 5/42.25 for an assist.

Therefore, I think it makes sense to try and make Bruno's increased incentive pay by backing potential targets, likely from set-pieces. Seven of his 19 assists have come from goals scored by Casemiro or Harry Maguire but rather than having to rely on them scoring at prices of 13/53.60 and 7/18.00 respectively, I like the look of backing them both to have a headed shot-on-target at 12/113.00.

In Casemiro's 18 Premier League home games, he's averaging 0.8 shots per-game with his head and, for Maguire's 10 home league games, he's also averaging 0.8 headed shots per-game. With both averaging nearly one chance per home-game with their head, it's not a huge ask for them to find the target and we land a 12/113.00 winner.

Now read Lewis Jones on why Man Utd would be wrong to appoint Carrick permanently