Man Utd v Liverpool: Back the Red Devils with the Merseysiders' absentees

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Both managers with points to prove

It's personal pride and manager security on the line in this North West clash of rivals. Third place Manchester United are nine points behind Manchester City and 11 points clear of sixth place Brighton, with fourth place Liverpool three points back on their rivals and eight points clear of Brighton so there is a lack of table jeopardy.

However, despite manager Michael Carrick doing a terrific job there are no guarantees he'll be offered the position full-time and despite Arne Slot having won the league last season, no silverware and a poor title defence leaves his role under scrutiny.

Liverpool injuries

Liverpool have got injuries to some of their biggest players. Top scorer Hugo Ekitike ruptured his achilles tendon against PSG in the second leg and is a long-term absence.

Second top scorer Mo Salah strained his hamstring against Crystal Palace last weekend and could have played his last game in a Liverpool shirt, though there are some reports suggesting he will be back before the end of the season.

He's been a thorn in Utd's side for years - no player in the Premier League has scored more goals against them than Salah with 13 and his seven at Old Trafford is also an away record.

With Ekitike and Salah both out, Liverpool are missing 28 of their goals and assists combined.

In goal, Alisson Becker is close to returning but is another suffering from a hamstring injury. Liverpool have missed him this season. Across all competitions, Liverpool have only lost 18% of matches with him in goal (six of 34). Without him, the Reds have lost 58% of games (11 of 19).

Reserve keeper Giorgi Mamardashvili is also out injured meaning third-choice goalkeeper Freddie Woodman could once again be called upon.

There are some question marks surrounding his ability. He was released by Preston after narrowly avoiding relegation in a season where he only had the 19th best save % record in the league at 68%. For context, the top three in the league had 84%, 79% and 76%.

How comfortable are the Liverpool defence in-front of him? In his only start last weekend, the Reds allowed 14 shots with seven on target totaling 2.26 expected goals. Palace missed five big chances and I'm not sure Man Utd will so forgiving.

Carrick's Old Trafford Fortress

Since the appointment of Carrick in mid-January, Utd have picked up the most points in the league with the interim boss having won nine of his 13 games in-charge, losing just two. At Old Trafford it's an impressive six wins out of seven taking the most expected points in that time with their performances backing up results.

Liverpool's record on the other hand away versus the top 10 makes for grim reading with five defeats in seven games and zero victories.

Therefore with Liverpool missing key attacking players and potentially vulnerable defensively, backing Man Utd to win is the most sensible option. The home side are 2.47/5 to win but it makes sense to have the security of the draw onside given the prices at 1.804/5.

Goals-wise, Over 2.5 looks very short at just 2/51.40 despite the fact that six of Utd's last seven have seen three or more goals and 71% of Liverpool's Premier League away games.

I'm concerned at Liverpool's firepower, or rather the lack of it, without Ekitike and Salah, but I'm not rushing to back Under 2.5 goals at 8/52.60 given the aforementioned stats and the fact that this match-up has been goal heavy. 11 of the last 12 meetings have seen Overs backers in the winners circle.

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