Liverpool v Tottenham: Back Diaz to fire Reds to title glory

• Reds so close to 20th English league title

• Diaz can fire home at 13/102.30

• Liverpool to concede, but still win against hapless Spurs

• Check out Ste Tudor's Build Ups tips at the bottom of this page

Football... Only Bettor. Watch the latest episode now.

Liverpool v Tottenham
Sunday 27 April, 16:30
Live on Sky Sports

Reds on the cusp of title joy

There's a natural tendency in British culture to downplay achievements, to find flaws and to knock people or groups down when we think they are becoming too successful. That anti-hype machine has been applied by some to Liverpool's Premier League season, and in this week's press conference Reds boss Arne Slot had to field questions about whether the big hitters had deteriorated.

Slot's typically measured response was to point out the spending that clubs outside the traditional big six are now capable of, and he underlined just how tough it's been to win in the Premier League on each and every matchday. It's worth remembering that Liverpool had few friends in the Premier League Winner market when the season began (our friends at Opta gave them a 5.1% chance of finishing first), and yet a point on Sunday at Anfield will be enough to deliver the English league title for a record-equalling 20th time.

For all the talk of it not being a vintage Premier League season, Liverpool's domination of the division can't be denied. They went into this weekend with the best attacking record, the second-best defence, and according to fbRef.com they had the best Expected Goals figures both for and against. The Reds have lost just twice, and they have won 24 of their 33 league games. No other team has even reached the 20-win mark.

Liverpool also boast the league's best attacking player in Mo Salah, who incredibly tops both the goals and assists charts. He has contributed to 45 top-flight goals, a phenomenal tally, and his decision to sign a new contract is a huge boost.

The Merseyside giants have won all but three of their home games in the league, and are on a run of six consecutive league victories at Anfield. In terms of team news, Trent Alexander-Arnold could return after scoring the winner at Leicester as a sub, and apart from Joe Gomez, Slot has a full squad to choose from.

Postecoglou reaching the end, regardless of Europa League fate

It seems inconceivable that Ange Postecoglou will start next season as the manager of Tottenham, even if they lift the Europa League trophy in Bilbao. Spurs appear to be briefing that they are putting together a shortlist of replacements, with Burnley's Scott Parker, Ipswich manager Kieran McKenna and Brentford boss Thomas Frank strongly linked with a move to North London, and the Australian's relationship with the Spurs fans appears to have deteriorated.

Tottenham have lost a staggering 18 Premier League games this term, and if the promoted clubs hadn't struggled so badly, Spurs may have even been in relegation danger. A crippling injury crisis and more encouraging results in Europe have saved Postecoglou from the boot so far, but his taciturn nature in post-match press conferences had done him few favours and won him few friends.

There's no doubt that Angeball is entertaining. Spurs have rattled in 61 Premier League goals, which means they have the best attacking record outside the top five. However, they have also leaked 51 top-flight goals, and they have lost five of their last seven league matches. On the road, Tottenham have lost three Premier League matches in a row.

Heung-Min Son is still struggling with the foot injury which has kept him out recently, while centre-back Radu Dragusin is out until the summer. It remains to be seen whether Postecoglou will rest players ahead of Thursday's Europa League semi-final first leg against Norwegian champions Bodo/Glimt.

All eyes on Salah, but Diaz can enhance the party

The market expects goals here, and Liverpool are very short to take the win, so the pro-Liverpool angle I'm taking is to back Luis Diaz to score at 13/102.30. The Colombian netted twice in the reverse fixture at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, and he has found the net in four of his last six games for club and country.

It's also worth backing Liverpool to win and both teams to score at 6/52.20 on the Sportsbook. Tottenham have nothing to play for but pride here, and they'll be guests at Liverpool's party, with the hosts surely wanting to wrap up the title by taking the win (even though a draw is enough). That said, I believe they will score, as they have in 12 of their last 15 league matches. Liverpool have only kept seven clean sheets in their last 20 league matches, and Spurs scored three goals against them in an extraordinary 6-3 win for the Reds in North London.

Now read Kev's Serie A preview here!