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Everton have lost just one of last five
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United winning games but playing poorly
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Everton v Manchester United
Sunday 26 November, 16:30
Live on Sky Sports Premier League
Everton fueled by sense of injustice
As the Premier League tries to bare its teeth amidst talk of an independent regulator, Everton are the first club to be caught in its jaws. The Toffees have been docked 10 points for financial breaches, which has dropped them down into the relegation zone.
However, with the promoted clubs all struggling badly at a higher level, Everton are still in a healthy position, and are only one win from climbing out of the bottom three if other results go their way.
Everton's Director of Football Kevin Thelwell says the punishment is "unjust, and wholly inappropriate", and it appears those at the top of the club will use the sense of being treated harshly to create a siege mentality.
There's certainly every reason to think Everton will be able to escape the drop - unlike recent seasons there is a clear playing structure, and players who fit that style. If you used understat.com's Expected Points model, the Toffees would be tenth in the table.
Everton's only defeat in the last five Premier League matches was a derby loss at Liverpool, and in their last two home games they have beaten Bournemouth and held Brighton. Recent victories at West Ham and Crystal Palace were hugely encouraging, and with 14 goals scored, Everton have the joint-best attacking record in the bottom eight.
Amadou Onana is a fitness doubt, but Idrissa Gueye (who scored the winner at Palace) is on hand to deputise. The oft-injured Dominic Calvert-Lewin hopes to make his 10th Premier League appearance of the campaign, which is a very encouraging sign.
United on the charge, but is it sustainable?
Those who deal with data in football will always tell you that the underlying numbers tell the real story of a team over time, whether that's in a positive or negative way. Manchester United find themselves in the top six, just five points behind a much-praised Tottenham, but there does seem to have been an element of fortune about their current run.
Expected Points models suggest United have overperformed by about four or five points, and it says a lot that Erik ten Hag's side have scored a measly 13 goals in their first 12 league matches.
United have won five of their last seven league matches, but whenever they have come up against a decent side they have struggled. Brighton, Manchester City, Arsenal and Tottenham have all beaten the Red Devils, and their seven league wins have all come against teams who are currently in the bottom half.
United have also struggled badly in the Champions League, losing three of their four group-stage games. A chaotic 4-3 defeat at Copenhagen has left United needing positive results from a home game against Bayern Munich and a trip to Galatasaray.
The protracted sale of shares by the reviled Glazer family has added to the instability, and a huge injury list has also made ten Hag's job difficult. Casemiro, Lisandro Martinez and Christian Eriksen are all out, while there are fitness doubts over Rasmus Hojlund, Luke Shaw, Aaron Wan-Bissaka and goalkeeper Andre Onana.
Everton can turn Goodison into a cauldron
I expect the rage at Everton's punishment to make for a terrific and raucous atmosphere at Goodison Park on Sunday, and Sean Dyche will have his players fired up.
The Toffees have been playing better than results suggest, and I think they can at least get a point against a United side that looks well short of its best, and has done for some time. I just don't see how these performances from ten Hag's side can continue to yield wins, and last season's star player Marcus Rashford has scored just once in club football this term.
I'll keep this fairly simple and back Everton +0 on the Asian Handicap at 2.0421/20. If the game is drawn, our stake is returned, but if Everton win we get a payout at just above evens.
Doucoure can at least test the keeper
Abdoulaye Doucoure smashed in the goal that kept Everton up last season, and he has continued to be an attacking threat this term. The midfielder has netted four Premier League goals this season, and he has had at least one shot on target in nine of his 12 top-flight games this term.
I'm pleasantly surprised to see that we can back Doucoure to have 1+ shots on target at evens here on the Sportsbook, so that's the way to go, whether as an outright selection or if you want to beef up your Bet Builder.
Check out Alex Boyes' Premier League Stats Tips here...
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