Everton v Aston Villa: Emery's men can prolong title dream

• Villa part of the title race

• Toffees have hit a sticky patch

• Back Bet Builder at 7/4

• Betfair offering completely free acca this weekend

Everton v Aston Villa
Sunday 14 January, 14:00
Live on Sky Sports

Poor run has put Toffees back in danger

When Everton were handed their ten-point penalty for financial breaches, the sense of indignation was palpable in the blue part of Merseyside. There was a feeling that Everton were playing well, and they would use the sense of perceived injustice to drive the team forward.

While that undoubtedly happened for a while, a poor festive period has dragged Everton back into danger, and at time of writing they are only above Luton Town on goal difference. Considering we are now beyond the halfway point of the campaign, Everton could be in for yet another nail-biting season finale.

Everton went out of the League Cup on penalties against Fulham, a hammer blow for a club that has seldom reached the latter stages of cup competitions in the 21st century. In the FA Cup they were held to a goalless draw at Crystal Palace, and in the Premier League they have lost their last three games against Tottenham, Manchester City and Wolves. The performance at Molineux was particularly concerning, as Everton were totally outplayed.

There is some good news on the personnel front though. Star striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin is available after his red card against Palace was rescinded, and rampaging midfielder Abdoulaye Doucoure should return from a persistent hamstring injury. However, Dwight McNeil and Ashley Young are struggling with injury, and veteran midfielder Idrissa Gana Gueye is away at the African Cup of Nations with Senegal.

Relentless Emery driving Villa forward

When Unai Emery talks about individual awards being about the work rather than just him, it's hard to disbelieve him. A football obsessive, Emery and his staff have worked tirelessly to develop Aston Villa, and the manager of the month award for December was richly deserved. In a jam-packed month, Villa beat title contenders Arsenal and Manchester City, and as a result they themselves are being considered as a team that could lift the biggest trophy in English football.

To underline Villa's progress under Emery, Opta tell us that the Midlands club claimed 85 points across 2023. Only the champions Manchester City collected more in the calendar year.

Villa are just three points off top spot, and had they not suffered a bizarre collapse away to a poor Manchester United side (Villa were 2-0 up at Old Trafford, but lost 3-2), they would be in an even better position. Things are also going well in cup competitions - the Villains won their Europa Conference League group and went straight to the last 16, and they just produced an impressive 1-0 win at Middlesbrough in the FA Cup.

While some managers would be demanding reinforcements in the January transfer window, Emery is fully focused on the resources he has. Players like Pau Torres and Youri Tielemans are recovering from injury, and the only long-term absentees are Tyrone Mings and Emi Buendia. Emery has sounded a note of caution when it comes to transfers, admitting Villa are concerned about falling foul of the FFP regulations.

Despite that aberration at Old Trafford, Villa's away form is generally encouraging. If you look at their last seven away games in the top flight, they have won at Chelsea, Tottenham and Brentford, and they found a way to snatch a draw at Bournemouth despite being outplayed on the day. Emery has generally specialised in home form as a manager, so it's a great sign for Villa fans that the team is also performing on the road.

Villa can at least avoid defeat

Given Everton's current malaise, it's hard to see them picking up a win here, and an excellent Villa are fair favourites. Seeing as Betfair are offering a completely free acca on football this weekend, let's put something together on the Sportsbook's Bet Builder.

I'll start by backing Villa/Draw Double Chance. Our friends at Opta tell us that Villa have won on their last three league visits to Goodison Park, and since their return to the Premier League they have gone nine unbeaten against the Toffees at this level, winning seven and drawing two. The current Villa side have only lost four of their 20 league games, while if you look at Everton's last ten PL games on home soil, they have won just three times.

I'll then throw in Both Teams To Score. A BTTS bet has paid out in 11 of Villa's last 14 league matches, including the last four, and they haven't kept a clean sheet in a Premier League away game since a 1-0 win at Chelsea in late September.

Finally, let's back Ollie Watkins to have a shot on target. The England international has hit the target at least once in 17 of his 20 league appearances this term.

That gives us a combined price of 7/42.75.

Now read Kev's Bundesliga column here!

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