English Premier League Tips

Crystal Palace v Tottenham: Head for profit with Kane

Harry Kane, Spurs striker
Harry Kane has already scored six headers in the Premier League this season

Our Andy Schooler has bets at 15/2 and 5/1 for Wednesday's televised Premier League battle between Crystal Palace and Tottenham.

  • Kane has six headed PL goals this season

  • Spurs' top scorer 15/2 for another at Palace

  • Doherty big odds for card v most-fouled Zaha


What to make of Tottenham at the moment?

Sunday's 2-0 home defeat to Aston Villa prompted another Antonio Conte moan about the lack of depth to his squad.

In particular, he cited the lack of creativity which was certainly evident during that loss and it's clear these are not the best of times in N17, doubtless worsened by the fact rivals Arsenal sit top of the Premier League.

Concerns over Spurs

I previewed that Villa game and had expected Spurs to returning to winning ways against a side who had struggled on the road and one they had dominated for a long period of time.

Tottenham also have a good record against Palace, winning 15 of 26 Premier League meetings, but it would take a brave punter to back them at 2.35/4 to win this match after what we saw at the weekend.

Conte and his staff will doubtless be doing everything that can to get Dejan Kulusevski back on the pitch - he's a major creator and has five assists in 10 league games so far.

He'll be needed after Bryan Gil failed to grab his chance against Villa. Richarlison remains out and he's now joined on the sidelines by the suspended Yves Bissouma. Rodrigo Bentancur and Lucas Moura are both doubts again.

Palace welcome back James Tomkins from suspension but left-back Tyrick Mitchell remains banned - that's perhaps an area Kulusevski can exploit, if fit.

Wilfried Zaha's move back out to the left at Bournemouth on Saturday worked well with Michael Olise and Eberechi Eze joining Jordan Ayew in what was a forward-thinking line-up.

They won 2-0, although both goals came from corners which a below-par Bournemouth defended miserably. It's hard to read exactly how good a result that was.

Palace's struggle v elite

What is known is that Palace have yet to beat a team in the current top half of the table, scoring only five goals in seven such games and conceding 13.

That's a worry for anyone contemplating backing them at 3.412/5, although Spurs' defensive problems have been very much on show - they have conceded in their last seven games and overall have kept just four clean sheets in 17 this season in the league.

One thing I did get right in their game against Villa was backing Spurs to concede first again. They duly did and have now done so seven times in a row in this competition.

Palace are 6/5 to make that eight here and the goal-time stats fit well with that bet.

Palace have scored more in the first half of games than the second, while Spurs have contrasting figures - they've netted 23 times after the break and only 10 times before. They also concede more in the first half than the second (13-12), something few teams manage.

Both teams to score (1.845/6) is another which looks good - Palace's only clean sheet at home came against rock-bottom Southampton, while I've already mentioned Spurs' current trend to concede.

However, while those suggestions have potential in Bet Builders, my preference in this one is to look at some higher prices in the sub-markets.

How to back Kane at 15/2

First up, I'm going to back a bet I mentioned the other day - Harry Kane to score a header.

He's scored six such goals already this season, while his recent record against Palace is excellent with five netted in his last five appearances against the Eagles.

He was denied another on Sunday only by a goalline Ashley Young clearance.
Notably that chance came from an Ivan Perisic cross and few players put in more crosses in the Premier League than the Croatian. Kulusevski's return would also be a boon for this bet.

A price of 15/2 looks worth taking.

Zaha to trouble Doherty

Finally, it's to a long-standing theory I'll turn for a 5.85/1 player card bet.

This season, Zaha is once again the most-fouled player in the English top flight (more than three per 90 minutes played) and ranks seventh for most dribbles.

1280 Wilfried Zaha Palace December 2022.jpg

Essentially, he's a proven awkward customer for defenders to deal with and it could be that Spurs' right wing-back Matt Doherty finds himself in Michael Oliver's notebook.

OK, he's yet to be carded this season but then again he's not started that many games - just five in the Premier League.

Of those five, Doherty has managed 2+ fouls in three - he's even money to extend that stat - while he's also committed at least two fouls in all four of his international starts for Ireland this season.

With Zaha's direct opponents having regularly earned cards over the years, I like the look of Doherty here.

He's started both games since the domestic resumption and with Emerson Royal out of favour with Conte, I'd expect him to make the XI again here, although if he is only on the bench you can easily cash-out the bet in the hour before kick-off.

Opta stat

Tottenham have fallen two goals behind in four of their last five away Premier League games (W1 D1 L2), including their last three, although they've avoided defeat in their last two (3-2 vs Bournemouth, 2-2 vs Brentford).

No team has ever gone 2+ goals behind in three consecutive away games and avoided defeat in each one.

Premier League Opta stats: Betting potential for the midweek action!

Recommended bets

Andy Schooler's P/L 2022/23

Staked: 17.25pts
Returned: 23.89pts
P/L: +6.64pts

New Customers can get £50 in free bets!

Available to new customers only. Place a £10 bet on the Betfair Sportsbook and you will receive £50 in free bets to use on Bet Builders and Accas! Opt-in here and T&cs apply.

Andy Schooler avatar

Andy Schooler

Andy Schooler has been writing about sport for more than 20 years.

Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.

Upcoming Premier League Fixtures

No upcoming matches to display.