Tottenham v Aston Villa: Spurs can battle their way to victory

• Spurs conceding plenty of late

• Have beaten Villa in 12 of last 14 meetings

• Home win & BTTS worth backing at 3.6

The return of the Premier League on Boxing Day saw Tottenham slip up in the race for the top four, a 2-2 draw at Brentford allowing Manchester United to close to within a point of them with a game in hand.

Antonio Conte's men can ill afford another iffy result in what will be the first Premier League match of 2023, although a home record of six wins out of eight should give his spluttering side some confidence.

Spurs' dodgy defence

Conceding goals has been a big issue of late, especially the timing of them.

Spurs - 1.738/11 to win this - have conceded first in their last six league matches, while they've trailed at half time in seven of their last eight in all competitions. In total, they've been behind at some stage in each of their last nine.

It says something about their resilience that only four of those have been lost.

Indeed, Spurs have won the most points from losing positions in this season's Premier League (14).

The good news is that they could well have key players available again to face Villa.

Cristian Romero is back in training after his World Cup success with Argentina, while Hugo Lloris could return between the sticks.

Rodrigo Bentancur, who missed the Brentford game through suspension, is another who could play, but Richarlison and Lucas Moura remain on the injury list.

Such reinforcements should aid Tottenham, who were very much second best for the first hour at Brentford, producing a performance which will give Villa, 5.24/1, hope.

Villa iffy on the road

They've struggled on their travels, winning only once and scoring just five goals.

Spurs have, however, been far from watertight on home soil - they've conceded 11 home goals and only three teams have a worse such record.

Villa did win at Brighton in their last away game and on Boxing Day caused Liverpool problems at times, although it would be wrong to suggest they were not well beaten - the Reds could easily have scored more than the three they did.

The visitors have a star of their own who could return - Argentina's goalkeeping hero Emi Martinez (pictured) is due back, but Diego Carlos and Jacob Ramsey remain absent.

Visitors to strike first?

So what are the angles here?

Spurs' penchant for falling behind is a worrying trend and one which is potentially worth following.

Villa are 5.59/2 to lead at half time - as seven of Spurs last eight opponents have done - while they are also 15/8 to score the first goal, which is the bet I'll take to small stakes.

For those after a really juicy price I'll mention that Villa/Spurs in the HT/FT market is on offer at 27.026/1.

I also like the 1.824/5 about both teams scoring - that's happened in 11 of 16 so far for Spurs, including their last five.

The stats aren't so good for Villa, although it's worth noting they've landed this bet in games with Arsenal, Liverpool and both Manchester clubs already this season.

Back Spurs and BTTS

That's definitely worth of consideration for those putting Bet Builders together and my way of doing that is to combine the BTTS angle with a Spurs win to get a price of 3.613/5.

Four of Tottenham's six home wins this season have seen both teams score, while they've dominated the 'lesser' sides so far, winning seven of their eight games against teams currently in the bottom half.

With Harry Kane having caused Brentford problems in the second half the other day, Unai Amery's defence should be tested to the max and it's not hard to see Spurs making it 13 wins in their last 15 meetings with Villa.

Kane scored his sixth headed league goal of the season on Boxing Day so it may also be worth seeking out a price on that - or for him having a headed shot on target - when the sub-markets go up.

Opta stat

Tottenham have won 12 of their last 14 Premier League games against Aston Villa (L2), as many as they had in their first 40 against them in the competition (D15 L13).

Premier League: Bet Builders and Opta stats for matchday 17