Crystal Palace v Brighton: Back Eagles and Seagulls to make feathers fly

• Palace impressed in draw at Manchester City

• Brighton great in UEL but have slumped in PL

• Over 2.5 Goals seems generously priced

Crystal Palace v Brighton
Thursday 21 December, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

City draw shows Palace have quality

When Crystal Palace boss Roy Hodgson suggested recently that Eagles fans were perhaps a little spoiled of late, he quickly apologised, but he also hit upon a fundamental truth.

Like a number of Premier League clubs, Palace's main agenda at the start of each season is to retain a place in the big league, and anything after that is a significant bonus.

There's no shame in that, but it doesn't necessarily lend itself to long-term planning, which is why veteran Hodgson was parachuted back in to replace Patrick Vieira last season.

But Palace fans must look across at a team like Brighton and wonder what can be achieved. Their "local" rivals have built an enviable football operation, and have just qualified for the knockout phase of a European competition - Brighton 15.014/1 to win the Europa League.

That requires significant, savvy investment, and the development of practices regarded as "best-in-class". It's doable, and I don't doubt chairman Steve Parish has that ambition, but there is much work to be done.

On the pitch, Hodgson has cut a frustrated figure at times, but with the promoted clubs having struggled so badly to adjust to life at a higher level, Palace have breathing space. At time of writing they are eight points above the bottom three, and their current rate of one point per game would usually be enough to secure Premier League survival.

The return of wondrous winger Michael Olise from injury has done no harm at all, and Palace's 2-2 draw at Manchester City involved a stirring comeback. The Eagles pushed Liverpool all the way in the previous game, only losing because of an incredibly harsh red card for Jordan Ayew and a last-gasp wondergoal from Harvey Elliott.

While Palace have had some notable performances against big hitters (they won 1-0 at Manchester United) there's no getting away from the fact they have lost their last four home games, and have won just one of their last ten top-flight matches.

Palace are without a slew of players because of injury, including holding midfielder Cheick Doucoure, defender Rob Holding, striker Odsonne Edouard and midfield battler Jefferson Lerma. However, there is some respite in the sense that tireless forward Ayew is back from suspension.

Seagulls on track for another fine season

Football lends itself to a certain measure of hyperbole, and the big statements just kept on coming after Joao Pedro's late winner saw Brighton edge out Marseille 1-0 and qualify for the last 16 of the Europa League as group winners. Joao Pedro described it as one of the best moments of his life, while his manager Roberto De Zerbi said it was the best moment of his time as Brighton boss.

Frankly, good for them. Brighton being in the last 16 of a European competition is barely believable for a whole generation of fans who watched the team play at the barely suitable Withdean Stadium, worrying about the club's financial future. This is a football fairytale built on rock-solid principles, a business venture where all the i's are dotted and all the t's are crossed.

Brighton can now park Europe until February, and in the league they are very much in the mix for European qualification. At the time of writing they were just three points off the top six, and it's perhaps a sign of their progress in recent years that we don't even talk about them as potential relegation candidates.

That said, the league form does need some serious attention. Brighton have won just two of their last 11 games in the top flight, and remarkably they haven't kept a single clean sheet in the league this term. Last weekend's 2-0 defeat at Arsenal was their first league game since May that hadn't seen both teams find the net.

Defender Joel Veltman is struggling with a knee injury, while Julio Enciso and Solly March have been out for a while. Pervis Estupinan and Ansu Fati are also injured.

Overs seem a generous price

If you look at the recent history of this M23 derby (look, they think it's a derby, so let them get on with it), only one of the last eight meetings have featured more than two goals, but I can't help feeling that Over 2.5 Goals is attractively priced at evens on the Exchange.

Twenty-two of Brighton's last 30 Premier League matches have featured at least three goals, and while Palace aren't quite so swashbuckling, an Over 2.5 Goals bet has landed in six of their last ten top-flight outings.

Ayew to take more punishment

Regular readers of this website and listeners to our Football Only Bettor podcast will know that it's always worth backing Jordan Ayew to get kicked from pillar to post. The Ghanaian forward has been fouled at least twice in all but one of his Premier League appearances this term, and even in his only sub appearance against Luton he was fouled three times.

I'll combine Ayew to be fouled twice with BTTS and Over 7.5 Corners on the Bet Builder, which gives us a price of 2.447/5. BTTS has landed in 20 of Brighton's last 21 Premier League matches.

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