English Premier League

Chelsea v Man United: Combine under goals and Enzo for Even money play

Lewis Jones
16 May 2025
3:00 min read

Chelsea v Man United tips — Get the best bets for Chelsea v Man United

Chelsea have a fight on to secure Champions League qualification and Lewis Jones thinks the suspension of Nicolas Jackson is a huge worry for their prospects...

Jackson's suspension could prove costly for Chelsea
But Man Utd have bigger fish to fry
Enzo Fernandez has been fouled in his last 16 PL start
Check out Ste Tudor's Build Ups tips further down this page

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Chelsea v Man Utd
Friday 16 May, 20:15
Live on Sky Sports

Chelsea miss Jackson, I am for real

Nicolas Jackson's inability to employ the dark arts and make it so obvious that he was trying to elbow Sven Botman in the face could prove to be so costly for their Champions League qualification hopes.

Jackson has played his last game of this season following that red card and it leaves Enzo Maresca with a huge issue at centre-forward.

Jackson isn't the answer long-term for Chelsea but his all-round game, mostly his willingness to run channels and occupy defenders, does make him a vital player for the Blues. Opposition centre-backs don't get an easy time of it against Jackson when he's fit and firing. And most importantly he frees up space for the likes of Cole Palmer to flourish in.

Jackson has missed seven Premier League matches for Chelsea this season, they've lost four of those matches against Arsenal, Brighton, Aston Villa and Ipswich, scoring just one goal along the way.

A criticism of Maresca this season has been the predictability of Chelsea's play and that is more apparent when you remove Jackson from the equation as he does bring a bit of surprise and directness to what trying Chelsea are trying to serve up.

His unavailability could be an issue here.

Oppose goals with United in town

One that hasn't been factored enough into the market, meaning those 1.42/5 quotes on the Betfair Exchange for a Chelsea win look a price to swerve at all costs.

Goals could be hard to come by for Maresca's team without their focal point in attack and with United having such a monstrous game on the horizon against Spurs in Bilbao, playing the under goals line looks a smarter way of taking an anti-Chelsea approach rather than the outright.

Remember, this is a Manchester United team that have failed to score in 14 Premier League games this season - only Southampton, Everton (both 15) and Leicester (16) have blanked more. Since December 22 they have scored just 21 Premier League goals in their 20 games.

Chelsea are likely to be win-at-all-costs mode so the likelihood of them putting a score on United is low whilst Ruben Amorim will be playing energy-saving football with Wednesday in mind. The under 3.5 goals line at 8/131.61 is a great starting point for a bet.

Enzo is sweet 16 for fouls drawn

The player to be fouled market is quickly becoming my favourite prop market to bet on and find great value in. If you are sharp enough you can get ahead of the traders when it comes to match-ups with foul heavy players or jumping on a trend that yet hasn't been factored into the price available.

Enzo Fernandez has been a consistent source of profit in this market this year as he's been fouled at least once in his last 16 Premier League starts. During that period, he's been fouled 32 times meaning he's working at a per game average of being fouled two times per game.

That's a very healthy figure.

And when searching for a bet to boost our under 3.5 goals play, this Fernandez price of 1/41.25 to be fouled at least once with the Betfair Sportsbook and stretch the run of 17 straight Premier League matches looks a great way to boost the price through the Bet Builder.

Combining the two bets gives us a value soaked 1/12.00 chance to back.

Recommended Bet

Back Under 3.5 goals & Enzo Fernandez to be fouled

SBK1/1

Now read more Football betting insight here

Recommended bets

Back under 3.5 goals & Enzo Fernandez to be fouled @ 1/12.00

Ste Tudor's Build Ups Tips:

Player to have more shots on target

Noni Madueke’s SOT ratio for the season is impressive, trailing only to Nicolas Jackson and Cole Palmer in the Chelsea ranks. Yet since returning from a hamstring injury the winger has undeniably struggled to hit the heights he consistently reached between August and January.

This accounts for all aspects of his game and explains why the England star has been withdrawn at the break twice in recent weeks, both times away from Stamford Bridge.

In those two first-halves Madueke failed to post a shot on target, the same goes for 68 minutes at home to Ipswich. In fact, all told, post-injury the player has averaged a SOT every 67.8 minutes. That’s fine. That’s acceptable. In the two months leading up to his injury though it was a SOT every 44 minutes.

Cole Palmer has had a few injurie of his own, but he appears to be back to full fitness now and looks sure to play the full 90 minutes here, and he's likely to be Chelsea's chief threat as they aim to secure a vital three points.

Palmer has averaged more than double the amount of SOT that Madueke has achieved in recent weeks and therefore his odds-on price is fully justified.

Recommended Bet

Back Cole Palmer to have more SOT than Noni Madueke

SBK8/13

Player to commit more fouls

Whether he’s deployed in midfield or at right-back Moises Caicedo will always be fancied in the fouls market, but here I’m going against him. This is despite the Ecuadorian committing four fouls last weekend at St James Park.

The theory goes that Caicedo has generally cleaned up his act of late, with his wrong-doing in the North-East an outlier. After all, he faced Anthony Gordon all afternoon, a direct and pacy wideman who has won 2.46 fouls per 90 all season.

In his last 10 appearances, Caicedo has committed 11 fouls. That includes his quartet against Newcastle. In his 10 prior to that, he committed 22, exactly double.

Manuel Ugarte has committed three fouls per 90 twice in 2025, both times away from Old Trafford. When these teams last met, the no-nonsense Uruguayan forced the ref to blow-up on six occasions.

Recommended Bet

Back Manuel Ugarte to commit more fouls than Moises Caicedo

SBK6/5

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