Chelsea v Aston Villa: Profit with 11/2 Palmer Bet Builder

• Chelsea are finding their feet again at Stamford Bridge

• Cole Palmer is back to full fitness and can outshine Morgan Rogers

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Chelsea v Aston Villa
Saturday, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

Chelsea improving at home

Chelsea's inconsistency can be summed up by their 2-2 draw at Newcastle last time. Trailing 2-0 at the break and looking in for a miserable afternoon, the Blues stormed back in the second half to draw 2-2 and could even have won it.

Adding to the confusing picture they paint is that Enzo Maresca's side have now won just one of their last five away games (at League One Cardiff) when previously looking a better bet on the road.

The good news is that they seem to be getting their act together at Stamford Bridge. 

After the shock of a 2-1 home loss to Sunderland, they beat the contrasting duo of Wolves and Barcelona by 3-0 scorelines, eked out a 1-1 draw with leaders Arsenal after being reduced to 10 men after 38 minutes and then dismissed Everton (a strong away side) 2-0.

Are Villa genuine title contenders?

Phone-ins during the Festive period have asked the same question: are Villa a genuine part of this season's title race?

All those connected to Villa will play it down but Unai Emery's side went into Christmas just three points behind leaders Arsenal and deserviing of their status as the top flight's in-for team.

Villa have won 10 on the trot in all competitions, a brilliant run which includes seven straight Premier League victories since a 2-0 loss at Anfield.

So are they title contenders? The latest odds say 'not really'. The market is still pointing heavily towards a two-horse race with Arsenal (39pts) 8/131.61, Man City (37pts) 13/102.30 and Villa (36pts) way, way back on 28/129.00 alongside Liverpool (29pts).

Is that too dismissive? They will certainly be cut here if they can take three points from Chelsea.

Villa look value on form but margins are tight

Chelsea won this fixture 3-0 last season and are 20/231.87 to bank all three points again.

But previously it had been a happy hunting ground for Villa, who took maximum points from both their two previous Premier League visits to Stamford Bridge, winning 1-0 in September 2023 and 2-0 in April 2023. Aston Villa are 3/14.00 to triumph once more while The Draw is 11/43.75.

There's certainly an argument to be made that getting 3/14.00 about a side on a 10-game winning streak is great value.

It's hard to argue with Villa's form but is that run rather flattering them? The obvious evidence is that they've won each of the last eight by a single goal.

In other words, the margins are fine and, at some point, surely that winning goal will flip to the opposition - especially when Morgan Rogers' magic spell (four goals in his last two Premier League games) dries up. 

Chelsea tend to excel in the big games and will like the idea of trying to put Villa in their place.

Palmer ready to fire

I have a theory that Cole Palmer missing a chunk of the season (he didn't play from September 20 to December 3) is great news for England's World Cup hopes in the summer.

He won't have been run into the ground as much as others - Rogers, a big rival for the No.10 spot, being one of them - and the fresher Palmer will have more spark and gears to go through.

Anyway, that's for down the line. For the here and now, I'll back the Chelsea attacker to have a big impact on this game by finding the net in a Bet Builder.

Palmer scored in Chelsea's last home game (2-0 v Everton) and Maresca now says his prized asset is ready to go the full 90 minutes.

In previous seasons, Palmer has scored the bulk of his goals at home (he bagged the third in the 3-0 win over Villa last season) and I'll take the 9/43.25 that he scores in a Chelsea win.  

It could also be worth doing a version that cashes in on Palmer's playmaking skills. The England man to assist in a Chelsea win pays just under 4/15.00 but we can get it to 11/26.50 by adding in him being fouled one or more times.

I get the feeling he'll relish the opportunity to outshine man-of-the-moment Rogers and put on a show that will send a strong message to England boss Thomas Tuchel.

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