Brighton v Newcastle: Back goals at the Amex at 1.77

• 74% of Brighton matches seen Over 2.5 Goals - a league high

• 18 of Newcastle's last 21 matches seen Over 2.5 Goals

• 17 of my last 24 Over/Under goals bets have won

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Brighton v Newcastle
Sunday May 4, 14:00
Live on SkySports

Chasing European Football

This clash looks ripe for the title of Super Sunday as goal heavy Brighton host high flying Newcastle at the Amex Stadium. Brighton 3.02/1 picked up their first win in six last time out with a 3-2 victory against West Ham following two goals in the last two minutes. It turned out to be an excellent use of subs from Fabian Hürzeler with Brajan Gruda grabbing two assists despite only entering the pitch in the 82nd minute and fellow sub Kaoru Mitoma scoring the equaliser. Brighton moved up to ninth with those three points and should be eyeing Aston Villa in seventh despite the six point gap, as they look to finish Hürzeler's debut season strongly.

Newcastle 2.427/5 meanwhile, shook off that 4-1 defeat at Aston Villa two weeks ago to comfortably demolish 10-man Ipswich Town 3-0, racking up 25 shots and 4.12 expected goals in the process. They sit third on 62 points but are just two points clear of Nottingham Forest in sixth who also have a game in hand. Newcastle are 2/91.22 to finish in the top five but with their final games after this Chelsea (H), Arsenal (A) and Everton (H), they can't afford to take their foot off the gas and goal difference could also play a part too. To be fair, the Toon Army are absolutely flying right now having won six of their last seven Premier League games and further back it's 13 wins in 19 with the League Cup trophy thrown in for good measure.

Goals, Goals, Goals

So what's the best bet? I make no apology for going down the goals route once again and with good reason too. For Brighton, they possess the seventh worst defence in the league with 55 goals conceded in 34 games (1.62 per-game) which has seen them ship at least two goals in their last six games. As a result, their last 11 matches have seen Over 2.5 goals which has meant that their games have the best hit rate in the Premier League for Over 2.5 goals winners with a whopping 74% (25 of 34).

For Newcastle, a huge 18 of their last 21 games have seen Over 2.5 goals winners (84%), including all of their last six games. It's no surprise when you've got a strike force that has seen them score three or more goals themselves in 11 of those 21 games. The line is actually set at 2.75 for this game but considering we have two of the top five goal heavy teams, and we will still see a payout with at least three goals, I'm more than happy to take it.

The Secret Formula

24 of my last 32 bets involving Premier League teams playing against each other in this column have been on the Over/Under goals market and of those 24 bets, 17 have won, with two void and only five losers, resulting in a 77% payout success. I would say I've had a great read on this market this season.

The Premier League is averaging 2.97 goals per-match this season, so in my opinion if we can identify regular Over 2.5 teams, we're already on the right track to value bets.

Top five teams for Over 2.5 goal matches:

• Brighton 74%
• Aston Villa 71%
• Wolves 71%
• Newcastle 68%
• Tottenham 68%

Worst five teams for Over 2.5 goal matches:

• Everton 35%
• Arsenal 41%
• Crystal Palace 47%
• West Ham 50%
• Nottingham Forest 52%

Column P/L 2024/25