Brighton v Chelsea: Gross assist is too big to ignore at 7/2

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Brighton primed to exploit Chelsea's fragile form

If Liam Rosenior had a honeymoon period at Chelsea, it's well and truly over. Their season has hit the skids.

Aston Villa are 10 points clear in fourth. Liverpool are seven points clear in fifth. With a top five finish guaranteeing Champions League football, Chelsea are set for a season of backward stepping.

A backdoor route could become available for Champions League qualification for the sixth place finisher if Aston Villa win the Europa League and finish fifth but on current form the Blues may struggle to even finish that high. There are only six points separating them and Newcastle in 14^th with Brighton just one point back.

There's a whiff of reputational pricing about Chelsea here that just doesn't stack up with what we're seeing on the pitch.

The market has them hovering around 2.8415/8 on the Betfair Exchange, which on the surface might tempt a few in - big club, big squad, surely a turnaround is coming? But you'd be backing a team in pretty alarming decline under Rosenior.

Chelsea have won just one of their last eight Premier League matches. Five points from the last 24 available is relegation-level output, not top-six form. In fact, only Spurs have picked up fewer points in that period, which tells you everything about the company they're keeping right now.

And it gets worse.

Goals have completely dried up. Chelsea have failed to score in five of their last six games in all competitions.

The attacking patterns look disjointed, confidence is clearly shot and there's very little evidence they're about to click into gear away at a Brighton side that is typically well-drilled and front-footed at home.

As has been the case with Tottenham, markets can be slow to react when a "big six" side goes off the boil, and this feels like one of those moments where the numbers haven't quite caught up with reality.

Brighton have taken 16 points from a last possible 21, showing some incredible consistency after a run of one win in 13 Premier League games had raised questions about the future of Fabian Hurzeler.

He's found a great balance in this team now and it's one that can cause Chelsea big problems at 2.568/5 on the Betfair Exchange.

Gross pulling the strings again

Pascal Gross at 7/24.50 with Betfair Sportsbook to register an assist looks a cracking bit of value. He quietly goes about his business without fanfare, but his numbers - and influence - are anything but quiet.

Since returning to Brighton in January, Gross has been absolutely integral. The 34-year-old has started all 15 matches, which tells you everything about how important he is to the way Brighton function in possession.

Three assists in his last six Premier League appearances, including one in each of his last two, points to a player right in the groove creatively. Since his first start of this second spell, only Bruno Fernandes and Declan Rice have created more chances than his 28. That's elite-level output.

Gross is on set pieces, he finds pockets and has quality ahead of him.

Referee trends and team data align for a spot-kick call

A penalty to be awarded at 7/52.40 with Betfair Sportsbook looks overpriced when you are assessing the key criteria.

Chelsea (362) and Brighton (399) both sit in the top five for fouls conceded this season in the Premier League and that's often a strong starting point when hunting penalties.

Then there's the most important factor, the man in the middle.

Craig Pawson has been quick to point to the spot of late, awarding four penalties across his last five domestic games in charge. That's a referee in decisive mood, not one shying away from big calls.

You've got two teams that concede plenty of fouls, likely to be involved in a competitive, transitional game, overseen by a referee who isn't afraid to take the limelight. Those ingredients tend to cook up at least one penalty shout.

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