Brentford v Nottingham Forest: Lay Bees amid Toney hype

• Can one man really turn around Brentford's form?

• Forest have lost just one of five under Nuno

• Pinnock a big set-piece threat at 11/1

• Read about Betfair's new 90 Minute Payout offer here

Brentford v Nottingham Forest
Saturday 20 January, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports Premier League and Main Event

Saturday evening's TV fare from the Premier League is all about one man, if you believe the billing.

Ivan Toney's ban for betting on matches is now over and he's expected to come straight back into the starting line-up.

And, boy, do Brentford need him.

They've slipped to within three points of the relegation zone following a horror run which has seen them beaten in seven of their last eight league games. In all competitions, they've won just one of 10.

Toney will help - but Bees need more

Toney should be able to help.

The Bees' expected goals figure is 34.77, that's close to nine goals more than they've actually scored and only Everton and Chelsea have larger such gaps.

In short, Brentford aren't putting away the chances they are creating, so a proven goalscorer coming into the team looks just what the doctor ordered.

Still, you have to go back to May to find the last time Toney played at this level and I won't be rushing to back him at 5/42.25 to score in this match.

Brentford's problems are deeper than simply missing chances. Defensively, only Sheffield United and Burnley have conceded more home goals and they remain without other key players.

Bryan Mbeumo, Christian Norgaard, Aaron Hickey and Rico Henry are all injured, while Yoane Wissa and Saman Ghoddos are among four players away at either the Africa Cup of Nations or the Asian Cup.

At least boss Thomas Frank appears to have solved his left-back problem, signing Sergio Reguilon on loan from Spurs this week.

Side with in-form Forest

Forest are also missing personnel - with six away on international duty, they are the worst-hit Premier League side on that front. Among them are Serge Aurier and Moussa Niakhate, while Taiwo Awoniyi remains sidelined by injury.

However, their form is considerably better.

The controversial replacement of Steve Cooper with Nuno Espirito Santo has had the effect desired by the board with only one defeat in five since the Portuguese's arrival and that came in the last minute against Bournemouth.

They won at Newcastle in their last away game and have since also beaten Manchester United at home, so shouldn't be fazed by this trip.

I'm a tad surprised to see Brentford at odds-on to win this and the Toney talk may well have produced an over-reaction in the market.

Forest are 4.216/5 for victory but perhaps the best way to approach this is to lay Brentford on the Exchange (that's backing the hosts not to win). You can do that at virtually even money.

Another possible angle for those seeking bigger odds is to target Brentford's propensity for dropping points from winning positions.

They've now lost a league-high 20 points that way, losing four matches having been ahead.

It's worth noting that Brentford/Forest in the HT/FT market can be backed at 35/136.00.

Pinnock one to follow

In terms of the sub-markets, there look to be some opportunities.

One area where Brentford will look to capitalise is from set plays.

Only Liverpool have more shots from set-piece situations, while Forest have conceded more set-piece goals than any other (9).

That makes the 11/1 about Ethan Pinnock to score make some appeal as a long shot, while those putting a Bet Builder together would do worse than back him for 1+ shot, something he's landed in 11 of 19 in the league this season.

Another angle of interest is cards.

Referee Darren England is top of the Premier League's card list, averaging 6.33 per game.

Admittedly, he's only taken charge of three matches but his Championship figures also stack up - he's just above six per game in the second flight too which is the highest of any official who has taken charge more than once.

Sadly, the layers are pretty short in the total and team cards markets but perhaps the player-card list is worth a look.

Gonzalo Montiel is a man always liking to catch a strict referee's eye.

He recently returned to Forest's starting XI and has been booked in two of his three league starts since joining on loan from Sevilla, where he was a regular card recipient.

The man who clinched victory for Argentina at the 2022 World Cup is at 21/103.10 to score.

Finally, I'll give Ryan Yates a mention - a man I've followed personally in the fouls market for some time.

Since coming back in the line-up at the start of last month, the midfielder has landed the 2+ fouls bet in all five league starts to continue a strong long-term trend.

The Betfair layers look to be catching up with this fact but, at 2/51.40, Yates is still of interest to Bet Builder fans.

Opta fact

Only Arsenal (9) have scored more headed goals in the Premier League this season than Nottingham Forest, with their eight headed strikes accounting for a league-high 33% of their overall goals. Meanwhile, Brentford (10) have conceded more headed goals than any other side this term.

More Premier League: Check out our weekend tipsheet!

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