Bournemouth v Manchester City: Back Cherries to pop plenty of shots away at 7/2

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Tuesday, 19:30
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It's all on the line at the Vitality

When two long-unbeaten teams clash in the penultimate game of the season then they deserve to be playing with something very much on the line. That's exactly what we have when Bournemouth host Manchester City on Tuesday night.

For the Cherries, a win will keep their hopes of qualifying for the Champions League very much alive, but it will also guarantee Europa League football at the very least for next season. For the Citizens it's a must win game if they are to take the title race down to the very last game of the season.

Bournemouth are on a run of 16 games unbeaten and they will run out at the Vitality Stadium on Tuesday night with four wins from their last five, including a brilliant win at Arsenal.

Victory over Man City will move Andoni Iraola's men to within one point of Liverpool and they'll go into Sunday's final game with two chances to qualifying for the Champions League. Beat Nottingham Forest and Liverpool fail to beat Brentford then they qualify automatically. Finish sixth and Aston Villa drop down to fifth then they will also qualify.

Man City's unbeaten Premier League run is at 14 games and they've also won both the League Cup and the FA Cup during that time. It's likely that only a win on Tuesday night will keep their title hopes alive.

Yet despite being on a fantastic run of domestic form, should Pep Guardiola's men fail to catch Arsenal at the top of the table then they will have huge regrets given that three of their four draws in that 14-game unbeaten run were against lowly West Ham, Tottenham and Nottingham Forest.

Why I'm avoiding the Match Odds market

In the last two games I've previewed there has been a team that, in my opinion, was too short in the Match Odds market. I didn't like Tottenham's price at home to Leeds but I couldn't really make a case for backing the visitors. And on Friday night I thought Liverpool were way too short at Aston Villa, so on that occasion I was all over the home victory.

The above isn't intended to blow my own trumpet and say I was correct both times - although I just have - but more to highlight that if you think a price is too short then you don't always have to oppose it, you can simply avoid it.

And that's what I'll be doing here with 7/101.70 Man City. My reason is that's it's very difficult to oppose a team playing on home soil that are on an unbeaten run of 16 games, while also having huge incentive to win the game themselves.

But by the same token, it's impossible to oppose an excellent Man City team, also on a long unbeaten domestic run, that simply have to win the game to keep their title hopes alive.

So in a nutshell, I can't make a solid case for any of the three Match Odds outcomes - Bournemouth can be backed at 18/54.60 with the Draw at 10/34.33 - so I'll be leaving this particular market alone.

You can follow the Match Odds market on the Betfair Exchange in real time below.

Are Bournemouth shots overpriced?

There have been times during recent seasons when games involving Bournemouth often ended with a very high shots count, with games regularly busting 30 shots.

So the Shots markets always appeal when the Cherries are in action, but even more so when they face strong opponents as concentrating purely on Bournemouth shots can regularly pay dividends.

In their last six home games Bournemouth have averaged over 17 shots per game (on and off target) including registering 20 shots against Manchester United and 21 against Aston Villa. In a game where both teams will be going for the win, hopefully resulting in a very entertaining affair, I really like the chances of seeing plenty of home shots.

In all of those last six home games the Cherries haven't failed to register at least 13 shots once, and yet we can back that option at 5/42.25 here, which I think is extremely fair. But I'm going to push the boat out and back Bournemouth to have 16+ shots at a very appealing 7/24.50.

Iraola's men smashed that number against top four occupants Man United and Villa and it's a bet that has landed in five of their last six home games.

Keep talented youngster on your side

Given the need for Manchester City to win the game it's very likely that Guardiola will name his strongest XI possible, but following a slightly rotated starting line-up for the FA Cup final on Saturday, and the subsequent celebrations, then I'm not 100% confident who will start on Tuesday night.

One man that I'm confident will start the game is Bournemouth's rising star Rayan. At just 19-years-old the Brazilian looks like he has the world at his feet and his recent form has been excellent.

Staying on the shots theme Rayan has registered 10 shots in his last four appearances with four of those being on target. He's 4/15.00 to register two or more shots on target against Man City and that's a bet that I wouldn't put anyone off having, in fact it's a bet I'll be having myself.

But the bet I like more is for Rayan to Score or Assist at 9/52.80, something he's done in each of his last four games (three goals, one assist). I'm hoping for a proper end-to-end game between two teams chasing the win, and I can just see Rayan playing a starring role against some tiring Man City legs.

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