English Premier League

Bournemouth v Aston Villa: Back Emery to outsmart Iraola with Evens play

Lewis Jones
10 May 2025
3:00 min read

Aston Villa boss Unai Emery knows how to beat Bournemouth's Andoni Iraola

Unai Emery's head-to-head record against Andoni Iraola is a key reason to back Aston Villa to continue their end of season charge, says Lewis Jones...

Emery is unbeaten in five meetings with Iraola
Bournemouth's home form has become a worry
Villa are fresh & flying towards a CL finish

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Bournemouth v Aston Villa
Saturday 10 May, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports

Iraola's boys running out of steam at home?

Bournemouth are on course for a record-breaking season under Andoni Iraola and have just beaten Arsenal away from home. But I'm a little cold on the Cherries as the season draws in.

This is a team I get a real kick out of watching, too. They are bold, brave and the football they play is something anyone would pay to watch. However, there are clear signs in their performance metrics that they are flagging down the run-in, especially at home.

Bournemouth have won just one of their last six Premier League home games and the underlying numbers have followed suit in terms of decline.

Over the first nine home games this season their expected goals data was working at 1.96 per 90 but over the last six it's down to 1.29.

Meanwhile, their expected goals against data has taken a whack too. That's gone from 0.9 per 90 to 1.68 per 90 in the last six home games.

Why is this?

Well, teams have found a blueprint to stop Iraola-ball, by restricting those high turnovers Bournemouth love to create and allowing them to have more of the ball. This is an area where Iraola needs to develop his team. They need to be better at creating chances from open play against well-drilled defences.

The squad is packed full of lots of powerful, speedy players but ones with not much guile and football intelligence in forward areas. There is work to be done in the summer.

Emery has Iraola's number in head-to-heads

This blueprint to stop Bournemouth I've mentioned is something Unai Emery has been implementing against Iraola before Iraola-ball was even a thing in the UK, back when Emery was manager of Villarreal. Iraola is exactly the type manager Emery eats for breakfast - the one-dimensional ones.

He knows exactly how Bournemouth are going to set up and he's going to implement his plan to stop them - as he has done in every meeting with Iraola before. Emery has won three and drawn two of the five meetings between the pair - but looking at the metrics behind those games it really should be five from five.

The score reads 13-5 on aggregate over those five fixtures but what I really like about these very relevant head to heads is the amount of chances Emery's teams create against Iraola. They are averaging 2.1 worth of expected goals per 90 - that's a huge average.

On top of this, Aston Villa arrive with a goal to chase in terms of Champions League qualification and have won six of their last seven Premier League games. They are showing no signs of slowing down.

So, this looks like a really good opportunity to back Villa on the draw no bet market at 1/12.00 with the Betfair Sportsbook.

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Back Aston Villa draw no bet

SBKEvens

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Ste Tudor’s Build Up Tips:

Player to have More Shots on Target

There are plenty of ‘yeah buts’ when it comes to backing Ollie Watkins to post more shots on target than Evanilson at the Vitality this Saturday.

If we were focusing solely on attempts made on goal the Brazilian would be strongly fancied to come out on top, the Cherries ace letting fly with impressive regularity of late. In his last 10 outings, the striker has registered 27 attempts, over and above his seasonal average.

Yet with 16 of these going astray that leaves us with 11 hitting the target, or 1.1 per 90, and that opens the door for a forward who may not even be featuring if not for Marcus Rashford’s injury.

It is undeniable that Ollie Warkins’ campaign has stuttered a little in the last month or two, finding himself in and out of the team. Yet the England attacker can always be relied upon to make a mark, as illustrated by posting a SOT every 77 minutes in his most recent 10 league showings. Or roughly speaking, 1.1 per 90.

Yeah but Bournemouth are at home, giving Evanilson an advantage? Not necessarily. In his last two games at the Vitality the 25-year-old has fired blanks while Watkins posted two SOT when these sides met in October.

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Back Watkins to have more SOT than Evanilson

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Player to Commit More Fouls

Neither Antoine Semenyo or Morgan Rogers are especially known for testing the referee’s patience, each associated far more for creative endeavours. Yet both players give as good as they get down their respective flanks, with data backing this up.

Semenyo is Mr Consistent, committing a single foul per 90 across his last five appearances, but he is certainly capable of racking up multiples. In back-to-back away fixtures earlier this year the winger erred nine times, a transgression every 20 minutes.

As for Rogers, in five of his last 10 league games he has not fouled at all, but what interests here is that away from Villa Park he too has form for fouling in multiples.

There were three blow-ups at City. Three at Wolves, Five at the Emirates.

The away player has to be backed in this particular build up bet.

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