Bournemouth v Arsenal: Time to side with red-hot Jesus

I know you've probably already heard, but it really has been a good start to the season for Arsenal.

After securing some impressive signings and enjoying a strong pre-season, they've won back-to-back Premier League games and the disappointment of missing out on Champions League football in May has been put well and truly in the past.

Arsenal and Jesus' flying start

Gabriel Jesus' capture already looks a great piece of business with the former Manchester City man having hit the ground running after being given the star role as the club's centre forward.

He looks to be brimming with confidence and after a fine start away to Crystal Palace in the opening game he was virtually unplayable against Leicester last weekend when he could easily have scored more than the two goals he actually did.

With no midweek game either side of this match, it's hard to envisage Mikel Arteta making any changes.

Jury still out on Cherries

Bournemouth have won one and lost one so far and it's hard to draw many conclusions about Scott Parker's side.

They won't be to the only team to lose 4-0 at Manchester City this season, one suspects, and while they did manage to beat Aston Villa in their only home game so far, they did so courtesy of some poor defending on a couple of set-plays.

Parker has been a bit frustrated with his attempts to improve his side with new signings Ryan Fredericks and Joe Rothwell both yet to make their debuts due to injury. They won't play in this one either.

However, Argentine centre-back Marcos Senesi may well come into the back three after getting a few futile minutes off the bench last weekend.

After a full week with his new team-mates, Parker said on Thursday: "He's in a better position this week in terms of the training he's done and the work he's had to do."

There looks every chance he starts, allowing Jefferson Lerma to return to his midfield role.

Back the form striker

Still, a new man at the heart of the home defence will be music to the ears of Jesus, who looks a tempting bet in the first goalscorer market given he's a 4/1 OddsBoost with the Sportsbook.

He landed this last week and really should have done at Palace too.

It's not the most original bet in the world, for sure, but the obvious ones are often there for a reason.

Are Gunners too short?

In terms of the match result, Arsenal are at 1.454/9.

I'd expect them to win this but whether you can start trusting them at such a price on the back of a couple of good results is open to question - remember they failed to win the majority of games away from the Emirates last season.

Bournemouth are at 8.88/1 with the draw a 4.94/1 shot.

Goals are expected with over 2.5 at 1.814/5. Arsenal are at 1.538/15 to score over 1.5 themselves.

And it's those prices which lead nicely onto another bet in the sub-markets.

Back forward-thinking Xhaka

When previewing that Palace-Arsenal game a couple of weeks ago, I mentioned Granit Xhaka's relatively new role in pushing forward much more than he's done previously.

That's certainly carried on into the new campaign and last week only Jesus had more touches in the Leicester box than the Swiss, who spent the majority of his time in the opposition half. He was rewarded with a goal and an assist.

"I have a lot of freedom from the coach, from my team-mates," Xhaka said this week. "At the moment, I'm happy with how everything is going."

If Arsenal are able to dominate this like the odds suggest, something similar could be on the cards and I think Xhaka is a big price in the related markets.

17/2 to score at any time looks tempting - remember he also often takes free kicks around the box - but I'll take the safety net of the anytime goal or assist market in which he's 9/2.

Xhaka has now won this bet in three of his last 11 Arsenal games, a period which corresponds also exactly with Arteta's decision to give him more licence to get forward.

Martinelli card looks big

That's an option for those putting chunky Bet Builders together, while another overpriced props play looks to be Gabriel Martinelli to be carded at 8/1 given he picked up five cards in 26 starts last season.

This term he's already committed a club-high five fouls in two games and here he'll likely be faced with the physical game of Adam Smith. The Brazilian has reacted to strong challenges in the past and here we've got a referee, Craig Pawson, who averaged well over four cards per game last season, making him the fifth strictest in the division.

Bet Builder options

There are also some other Bet Builder options that have potential.

First, another obvious one.

Jefferson Lerma and Granit Xhaka have been two of the most-carded players in the Premier League in recent seasons. Both to be carded, another OddsBoost, is at 17/2.

Xhaka extended his long card record at Palace and while Lerma is yet to do so this term, the expected move into midfield will help on that front, as will the presence of Pawson - he's booked Lerma in three of their four previous meetings, including in this very fixture in 2018.

In the shots markets, it's that man Xhaka again and his new team-mate Oleks Zinchenko whose prices catch the eye.

Xhaka's shooting potential has clearly grown - he's now had 1+ shot in 14 of his last 17 games.

Like Xhaka, Zinchenko managed two shots against Leicester as he raided down the left - Arsenal's preferred attacking side so far this season.

He's now hit 1+ shot in 12 of his 20 club starts since the beginning of last season and 2+ in seven of 20.

Against this opposition (see Opta stat below), 1+ shot each looks a solid play at around 5/4 with 2+ each worthy of consideration at 10/1.

Opta fact

Bournemouth have had fewer shots than any other side in the Premier League so far this season (10), while only Nottingham Forest (42) have faced more than the Cherries so far (34).

More Premier League tips: Opta stats number crunch