Aston Villa v Sheffield United: Wat a way to back Villans

• Villa perfect at home this season

• Watkins has scored in 7 of his last 11 starts

• Fouls markets also make appeal

• Read Betfair's new 90 Minute Payout offer here
  

Aston Villa v Sheffield United
Friday 22 December, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Premier League and Main Event

On these pages, we like to provide punters with that bit of information you wouldn't find elsewhere or a value bet which really shouldn't be that price.

But sometimes the obvious is staring you in the face and there's just no need to be clever.

This is one such occasion.

Fortress Villa Park

Aston Villa have won 15 Premier League games on the spin at Villa Park (yes, you may have read this in another publication) and will go top of the table if they extend that run to 16 on Friday night.

All they need to do is beat the side sitting bottom of the division, Sheffield United, who have lost seven out of eight on the road since promotion. They are 1.222/9 to win the game on the Exchange.

They've conceded the most goals (43 in 17 games), scored the fewest goals (12) and I've seen little to suggest they are ready to claim a result at Villa's fortress. Incidentally, their last win there came back in January 1966 - no-one had seen Nobby dancing back then.

Perhaps a chink of light for the visitors is the fact that Boubacar Kamara is suspended and misses only his second league game of the season (Villa failed to win the other, at Bournemouth). However, both Douglas Luiz and Lucas Digne return from bans of their own, while Youri Tielemans will stake a claim for Kamara's midfield role if he is declared fit.

For the Blades, Jack Robinson will reclaim his place in the back line after suspension but I just don't see where the Blades will be able to hurt a Villa side full of confidence.

Of course, some will suggest that an amazing run such as this is destined to end against a struggling side but frankly such theories don't belong on these pages. I see little evidence on which to base a bet on the visitors, who are 17.016/1 for the win, and while complacency is always a possibility, that's not something we've seen from Villa under Unai Emery.

What's the best way to back Villa?

So, really this is a case of how to get with Villa and, as I hinted at the start, my suggestion is nothing original but hopefully it's one which does work out.

I'm going to back Villa to cover a one-goal handicap and put that in a Bet Builder with in-form striker Ollie Watkins to score.

Let's start with the first leg.

Of Villa's eight home wins this season, six have seen them win by at least two clear goals. The only two that haven't came against fellow high-fliers Manchester City and Arsenal.

They've scored 3+ goals in each of the other six so it's hard to see the league's worst defence keeping them out.

Sheffield United have lost seven away games thus far and five of those have been by a margin of 2+ goals. They lost 5-0 at both Arsenal and Burnley.

As for the Watkins bet, the England man should be relishing in facing this defence.

Watkins netted the winner at Brentford last week and he's now scored in seven of his last 11 Villa starts.

With nine Premier League goals, he sits fifth in the Golden Boot race and if Villa do indeed cover the handicap and win this by two clear goals, it's hard to see Watkins not being on the scoresheet.

The double pays 5/42.25.

Bet Builder options in fouls market

When it comes to other Bet Builder options, over 2.5 goals looks an obvious choice given Villa's already-discussed home record. However, it's only a 4/9 shot with Villa over 2.5 goals arguably the better bet at evens.

The markets I'm particularly keen on are the fouls ones and that's because Sheffield United are the fourth-highest foulers in the league, while Villa are the second-most fouled - a good combination.

I'll try to nab a profit by combining some short prices.

Watkins has been fouled in 16 of his 20 starts in all competitions so the Villa man to be fouled at least once gets the nod.

So does Digne to be fouled - that's occurred in 10 of 12 starts and you can certainly see him flying forward down the left in this one to link up with John McGinn.

That will likely put him up against Jayden Bogle, a player who made eight tackles and committed three fouls at Chelsea last weekend.

Finally, I'll flip to the other side of the ball and back Villa's Douglas Luiz for 1+ foul. He's landed this in 18 of 22 starts this season which says enough.

That fouls treble pays out at around 6/4 which, given the stats involved, looks worth taking.

Opta fact

Aston Villa have won 25 Premier League games in 2023, their most top-flight wins in a single calendar year in their history. Only Manchester City (87) have won more points in the Premier League in 2023 than Villa (81).

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