Aston Villa v Liverpool: Back 2/1 hosts to rediscover league form

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Not such a dead rubber after all

Champions League qualification is up for grabs on Friday night when Aston Villa host Liverpool with the winner - should there be one - guaranteed to be in next season's elite club competition courtesy of a top five finish.

Villa looked absolute certainties to finish inside the top five a few weeks ago, but they've since taken just a single point from three Premier League games, losing to both Fulham and Tottenham before drawing 2-2 with relegated Burnley on Sunday afternoon.

Unai Emery's men are still in pole position to qualify for the Champions League, sitting fifth in the table, four points ahead of Bournemouth in sixth (the only team who can realistically gatecrash the top five) but they can ill-afford to drop points against the Reds on Friday night given that their final game of the season is away to Manchester City.

The same can be true of Liverpool. Having looked like they'd comfortably finish in the top five, Arne Slot's men have taken just one point from their last two games, meaning a defeat at Villa Park will leave them looking over their shoulders as the end of the season approaches.

So from looking like being a dead rubber a week or two ago, Villa v Liverpool is quite the opposite, especially if you're a Bournemouth fan.

Why Cherries are praying for a Reds win

There are three possible match outcomes on Friday night but undoubtedly the one that Bournemouth fans will be cheering on is a Liverpool win.

Should that happen then the Reds will be guaranteed a top four finish courtesy of their much superior goal difference to Villa, and it will give the Cherries two chances of qualifying for the Champions League.

One will be to win their two remaining games and hope that Villa don't win away to Man City on the final day of the season, but with Bournemouth having to play Man City themselves then a more realistic route to the Champions League would be to finish sixth - behind Villa in fifth - and hope that Emery's men win the Europa League.

And of course, if Villa do finish fifth then Brighton will be very interested in the race for sixth as they currently sit just two points behind Bournemouth. You can back the Cherries at 4/71.57 to record a Top 6 Finish, with the Seagulls available to back at 11/82.38.

Put your faith in 2/13.00 hosts

Despite their poor recent form I'm surprised that Aston Villa aren't a little closer to Liverpool in the Match Odds market, so they have to be the bet at 2/13.00 in what is likely to be a very close affair.

Admittedly Villa were poor at home to Tottenham last week, and by all accounts they weren't much better at Burnley on Sunday, but I believe they are entitled to some forgiveness given that their Europa League semi-finals against Nottingham Forest were the priority around the same time, and also a little bit of complacency about finishing top five might have kicked in.

There'll be no excuse on Friday night given they've had a decent rest and that they now know that they could possibly need one more win to guarantee a top five finish.

And if you look at each team's respective home and away form in recent months then it becomes incredibly difficult to make a case for backing Liverpool at 6/52.20 (the Draw can be backed at 14/53.80).

In all competitions Villa have won five out of their last six games at Villa Park, including that very impressive 4-0 win over in-form Nottingham Forest last week, while Liverpool have lost five of their last six games on the road. And that's the second time this season that the Reds lost five out of six away games.

Star men can help land 13/27.50 Bet Builder

There have been some incredible meetings between these two sides at Villa Park in recent years, including a 7-2 and 5-0 win for Villa, a 6-0 win for Liverpool, plus a couple of high-scoring draws.

In fact, every one of the last 10 meetings between these two sides at Villa Park resulted in at least three goals being scored, and 48 goals were scored in total during that period, that's a huge 4.8 goals per game.

In the hope of another bonkers game between two teams who will be going for one more win, let's take a chance on Over 4.5 Goals.

At 4/15.00 it's not the biggest price you'll ever see for a game containing at least five goals so we'll enhance those odds by adding Morgan Rogers and Dominik Szoboszlai to a Bet Builder.

I'm expecting Villa to be close to as full strength as possible given that their Europa League final isn't until five days later, but even if Emery does make changes Rogers seems to play every game regardless of a busy schedule.

The 23-year-old has started all 36 Premier League games this terms and has registered 83 shots at goal with 31 on target. If we do get a goal-heavy game then Rogers should be able to get at least one shot on target away.

And the same is true for arguably Liverpool's star player this season, Szoboszlai. He failed to register a shot on target in three Premier League games in April, but he spent a lot of time playing at right-back during that time, and his overall record in his last nine league games in 19 shots at goal with four being on target.

On free-kick duty, and likely to start in midfield, the 25-year-old is fancied to get a shot on target at Villa Park.

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