English Premier League

Opta Predicts Arsenal v Tottenham: Back Magalhaes in 76/1 Bet Builder on Wednesday

  • Opta
  • 4:00 min read
Opta stats and Bet Builder for Arsenal v Tottenham
Opta recommend an NLD Bet Builder at 76/1

Opta provide an in-depth preview for Wednesday night's North London Derby and recommend a Bet Builder based on their stats an enormous price...


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The North London Derby is always a big game, but this one feels bigger than normal.

With both managers under the magnifying glass after difficult respective periods, they are both in need of a result.

Read ahead to find out what the data suggests could happen at the Emirates Stadium on Wednesday.


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Tottenham could upset the odds in north London derby

Starting off with the hosts, their penalty shootout defeat to 10-man Manchester United at home in the FA Cup third round on Sunday bookended a chastening week that included three games in all competitions and no victories.

It is only the second time this season that Arsenal have gone three games without a victory and, significantly, the first time since the Christmas and New Year period of 2023-24 that they have failed to win in back-to-back home games.

Taking Arsenal's season as a whole, it is easy to see why critics are suggesting that things are starting to unravel for them. They currently find themselves six points behind Premier League leaders Liverpool having played a game more and the Opta supercomputer gives them just a 9.8% chance of overhauling them.

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The Gunners are also out of the FA Cup and their EFL Cup involvement is hanging by a thread after a 2-0 home defeat in the semi-final first leg - only once has a side overturned a two-goal deficit to progress to the final.

Their recent dip in performance has also been compounded by an injury to key player Bukayo Saka, who has been missing since the 24th minute of the victory away to Crystal Palace on 21 December. Without Saka this season in all competitions, Arsenal have failed to win four out of nine.

But even with Saka in the team, the Gunners had taken a noticeable dip in a three-game period at the start of December in which they had a set-piece reliant victory at home to Manchester United, and then drew 1-1 and 0-0 with Fulham and Everton in respective back-to-back league games.

While Arsenal won the xG battle in each of those matches - along with the ones following Saka's injury - they have failed to make the most of their chances in all of them. Since Saka came out of the team, they have scored more than once in a match on just one occasion.

So that's the bad news for the hosts. The good news is that they do at least have history on their side - Arsenal are currently unbeaten in the last 13 Premier League derbies at home.

Luckily for the Gunners, Tottenham aren't in great shape either. They come into this having won just one of their last six matches in all competitions inside 90 minutes and were most recently taken to extra-time by National League Tamworth in the FA Cup third round on Sunday before winning 3-0.

Looking purely at the league, meanwhile, Spurs' only victory in their last eight matches was against bottom-of-the-table Southampton in mid-December. Tottenham have also lost five matches in that sequence, putting them third-bottom of the eight-game form table.

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But having said the above, Tottenham's performance in their 1-0 victory over Liverpool in their EFL Cup semi-final first leg last Wednesday could suggest they have some form of defensive solidity back.

Having stood up to the league leaders and prevailed, new goalkeeper Antonin Kinsky comes into this match with back-to-back clean sheets in all competitions - the first time since September that Tottenham have managed that.

It is because of the above that the visitors look a decent play at 9/25.50 in the draw no bet market or at 15/82.88 double chance. The caveat with this selection is the acknowledgment that Arsenal are the likelier winners out of the two but, in what should be a low-margin game, they represent no value at 2/51.40. The draw at 4/15.00 is also one to keep an eye on.

Given the expected pattern of the game, the 8/52.60 about the half-time result to be a draw also looks a good pick. Tottenham have scored just three first-half goals in five matches, Arsenal have managed one in three games, while three of the last five North London Derbies have been level at the break.

Tight-margin affair to be low on goals at the Emirates

As mentioned above, the nature of this match and the state of both teams are likely to dictate that this is a low-margin affair. There has been a maximum difference of one goal in each of Spurs' last five matches in all competitions at 90 minutes, while three of Arsenal's last five have either been level or had one goal in them.

It's some turnaround to suggest Tottenham keep it tight, given that they have kept just three clean sheets in the league all season and conceded 17 goals in their last eight league games - only West Ham, Leicester and Southampton have shipped more.

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The difference now is that Spurs appear to have a half-decent goalkeeper between the sticks. While 21-year-old Kinsky is clearly one to develop, he arrived at the club with a goals prevented figure of 4.9, conceding just seven times from 42 shots on target in the Czech First League for Slavia Prague this season. He has taken the big step up in his stride so far with his assured displays.

Despite their recent troubles, Arsenal have also been able to keep it tight at the back and another clean sheet here would make it five on the bounce at home for the first time since February 2014.

Considering that neither side have gone goal crazy in recent weeks either - Arsenal have scored more than once in a match on just one occasion in their last five, while Spurs have scored just four normal-time goals in their last five in all competitions - the value pick here has to be under 2.5 goals at 9/52.80.

Gabriel worth backing for another goal

While this game looks like it could be a tight one, it does not mean we should expect it to meander to a dour goalless draw.

The set-piece threat that Arsenal carry means that they always have it within themselves to influence marginal encounters. While Mikel Arteta jokingly batted away comparisons to Tony Pulis' Stoke City side recently, the fact is they could probably out-Stoke Pulis when it comes to set pieces.

Arsenal have scored 10 non-penalty set-piece goals in the Premier League this season, which account for more than a quarter of their 39 goals this season. That is at least two more than any other Premier League side, while Gabriel Magalhaes netted another in the second phase after a set piece against Manchester United on Sunday.

Gabriel also scored the only goal of the game in the reverse fixture last September and is 6/17.00 to find the net again, while William Saliba is 17/29.50.

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Despite Saka's injury, it is noteworthy that the majority of Arsenal's attacks are still coming down their right-hand side. Given that Martin Odegaard has often played on the right of a midfield three, and is a set-piece taker, he should be one to keep an eye on in the assist market at 5/23.50.



Now read Premier League Opta Stats Betting: 10 bets for midweek including Arsenal v Tottenham tip


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